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Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

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5 minutes ago, renton said:

Nope.

Would you say you identify as a nationalist? 

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1 minute ago, Stormzy said:

Would you say you identify as a nationalist? 

I voted Yes in 2014, would vote Yes again tomorrow and have voted SNP or SNP/Green at every election since 2010. 

I'm not going to lose sleep over a single poll that shows the SNP taking 55 seats at Westminster. Why should I?

The same poll shows a narrow majority for Indy as well.

I would make two points here:

1) no single poll with a +/- 3 point typical error ever shows anything. I am genuinely uncertain if ACH knows this and is trolling badly or if his blood pressure genuinely rises and falls with sampling variation. You typically need at least the next two polls to confirm a trend. I have been consistent in my commentary on not looking for truth in a single poll.

2) There are house effects at work in all pollsters. Survation has tended towards being less friendly in terms of results to the SNP than say, ComRes. Indeed they probably underestimated SNP support in 2019. Yet all the polls to date show a consistent trend of crushing SNP wins in 2020 and majority support for independence. I don't yet see any sustained signs of slippage.

In truth this poll is possibly a bigger concern for Dougie Ross than for anyone else.

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6 minutes ago, renton said:

I voted Yes in 2014, would vote Yes again tomorrow and have voted SNP or SNP/Green at every election since 2010. 

I'm not going to lose sleep over a single poll that shows the SNP taking 55 seats at Westminster. Why should I?

The same poll shows a narrow majority for Indy as well.

I would make two points here:

1) no single poll with a +/- 3 point typical error ever shows anything. I am genuinely uncertain if ACH knows this and is trolling badly or if his blood pressure genuinely rises and falls with sampling variation. You typically need at least the next two polls to confirm a trend. I have been consistent in my commentary on not looking for truth in a single poll.

2) There are house effects at work in all pollsters. Survation has tended towards being less friendly in terms of results to the SNP than say, ComRes. Indeed they probably underestimated SNP support in 2019. Yet all the polls to date show a consistent trend of crushing SNP wins in 2020 and majority support for independence. I don't yet see any sustained signs of slippage.

In truth this poll is possibly a bigger concern for Dougie Ross than for anyone else.

I've said my piece on polling plenty of times, I was just curious for those that seem to pay a lot of attention to them on this forum what they thought about this one, appreciate your analysis. 

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I’ve never been able to see past Howard from Better Call Saul for Cole-Hamilton.

IMG_0177.jpg.6ea409e939812111896cffba5fceee6b.jpgIMG_0178.jpg.06858da81b035c5ad142692cb40cb335.jpg


Howard is also a gigantic cock.

Edited by Paco

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Anyone worried?
 
In all fairness I don't think anyone has ever been worried about one of ACH's tweets.

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1 hour ago, Stormzy said:

Anyone worried?

 

Lol no.  Even if every single person in Scotland voted labor, it wouldn't make a bit of difference if the English want the tories in power.

 

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Heard yesterday that the election will be entirely postal votes.  No idea if that's true, but I don't think it'd be a huge surprise if the current circumstances remain.

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37 minutes ago, Anonapersona said:

Lol no.  Even if every single person in Scotland voted labor, it wouldn't make a bit of difference if the English want the tories in power.

 

Wonder if he realised it was a poll for Westminster (whilst I assume he was referring to 2016 polls for Holyrood)

It is also a different electorate 16 and 17  year olds eligible. 

Were EU nationals able to vote in 2016 and not 2021?

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1 hour ago, Highland Capital said:

Heard yesterday that the election will be entirely postal votes.  No idea if that's true, but I don't think it'd be a huge surprise if the current circumstances remain.

Hopefully wee Willie Rennie goes full Trump and declares victory.  

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Am I worried that 7 in 100 people are still planning on voting Lib Dem in the year 2021? Less worried and more concerned for these people.

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12 minutes ago, Suspect Device said:

No. Why should I be?

I dunno, as I've said, I was intrigued to the response considering some of the responses to other polls that show different things. 

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11 minutes ago, Stormzy said:

I dunno, as I've said, I was intrigued to the response considering some of the responses to other polls that show different things. 

If you were intersted in the reaction to the poll, why did you post ACH's lies and misrepresentations about it? Surely the poll figures speak for themselves?

Last 4 Survation polls for Westminster show the SNP on 51% 52% 51% and 48%, so the result is within the standard margin of error. Obviously, however, under the FPTP system, this would be a great result for the SNP - Electoral Calculus predicts the pictured result on these figures

 

Screenshot 2021-01-20 at 20.29.51.png

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27 minutes ago, lichtgilphead said:

If you were intersted in the reaction to the poll, why did you post ACH's lies and misrepresentations about it? Surely the poll figures speak for themselves?

Last 4 Survation polls for Westminster show the SNP on 51% 52% 51% and 48%, so the result is within the standard margin of error. Obviously, however, under the FPTP system, this would be a great result for the SNP - Electoral Calculus predicts the pictured result on these figures

 

Screenshot 2021-01-20 at 20.29.51.png

Because it appeared on my Twitter feed and I thought I'd share it. 

I'll ask your permission next time. 

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17 minutes ago, Stormzy said:

Because it appeared on my Twitter feed and I thought I'd share it. 

I'll ask your permission next time. 

You don't need any permission to post ACH's lies. They gave me a good laugh.

I thought you wanted to discuss the poll though? Why would any SNP supporter be worried about a 55-4 win in Scotland in a Westminster election?

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