Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I personally don't believe that Salmond's impending testimony had as much influence on that poll as the UK's vaccine response v the EU's. 

More likely people looking at England's Road Map and comparing dates with Scotland - on the misunderstanding that they were comparing like with like.

It's amazing the number of people who just took the no earlier than as happen by dates.

[NotThePars]

11 hours ago, GordonS said:

It's easy to bracket the two sides in this civil war together and I know you weren't doing that, but it's worth saying the reality is that the pro-equality wing said nothing until the anti-trans wing killed the Gender Recognition Reform Bill (which the electorate support), and while one side is defending trans people the other is claiming that the leader of the party, a group of women and the nation's prosecutors conspired to concoct false allegations of sexual assaults against the former party leader, who was out of politics and had been her mentor, for no apparent reason at all, in a thing that was likely to hurt the party and everyone involved. They also accuse said party leader of not being in favour of the party's key policy, despite her working herself to the bone for decades to achieve it. They want to replace her in spite of the fact she's the most popular politician the country has ever had. And, y'know, other stuff like donating to a crowdfunder to sue one of their colleagues. That kind of thing.

Now both sides are radicalised and detest the other. All Johnson has to do is flatly deny a referendum and watch them tear themselves apart.

You have to assume someone who's framing one side as "pro-equality" is supportive of that side cause they're just giving them a massive W with the label alone.

Anyway, I clearly have a biased support for one side over the other but even then as far as I can see it's not the Stirling Uni woke squad who've been clearly engineering a coup for the last couple of years and doing everything they can to scorch the earth so they can be in control of the ashes. It's Sarwar and Baillie-esque.

[KingRocketman II]

1 hour ago, John Lambies Doos said:

It's staggering reading how much doom and gloom is being predicted due to a state media frenzy of a non event. Yet, south of the border Hancock acts unlawfully, BJ rips up international treaty's and Patal bullies the civil service. Cue 7 point gain for Tory's.
Its so Scottish media

important addition there. 

an example would be on Kaye Adams this morning, someone mentioned the need to assess the Salmond/Sturgeon story in proportion to Westminster where it has been accepted that the Govt has acted unlawfully against existing legislation, where the Govt there sought to shut down debate over the Brexit agreement by shutting down Parliament, where the PM has been shown time and time again to have knowingly made misrepresentations in the house, where normal transparent procurement practices have been thrown to the wind in order to give public fund hand-outs to donors etc etc. Kaye's quick response was that we are only talking about Scotland and what is happening elsewhere is irrelevant (ie whataboutery if you will to paraphrase). 

YET, when discussing the vaccine roll-out in Scotland the other week and how it appeared sluggish, Kaye insisted that it was important to compare to England and the rest of the UK to put it (and I quote directly) "into context". 

Therefore if being consistent, this issue needs to be compared with not only similar "mis-leading" Parliament issues and importantly, the coverage these issues get. I would suggest that it is reasonable to suggest that a she said/he said debate that may essentially boil down to one date is not exactly on a par with what has happened in the "mother" Parliament and the UK Government's actions. 

But with the BBC. Scotland's media in general and with the support of the opposition parties, this issue has taken on a whole new level of priority in Scotland. Regardless  of this, and as an aside, my personal view is that if someone's support for independence waivers because of this issue, you really do have to question why that person was voting for indy in the first place........ 

 

[Gordon EF]

42 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

You have to assume someone who's framing one side as "pro-equality" is supportive of that side cause they're just giving them a massive W with the label alone.

Anyway, I clearly have a biased support for one side over the other but even then as far as I can see it's not the Stirling Uni woke squad who've been clearly engineering a coup for the last couple of years and doing everything they can to scorch the earth so they can be in control of the ashes. It's Sarwar and Baillie-esque.

It's easy to see every "both sides" type point as effectively saying "both sides are as bad as each other" or "both sides are exactly the same" and it isn't always that. With stuff like this it's always more that both sides have shown elements of the same toxic behaviour that have helped create the current situation and I just don't see any way that's not true for the current gender debate stuff.

Like you say, classic examples are labelling the two sides stuff like "pro-equality" and "anti-trans". Others are using the absolute worst behaviour to completely characterise the opposite side and dismissing any shitty behaviour from your own side as unrepresentative. You see this again and again across multiple debates and it's probably one of the areas where social media has increased divisiveness. If you're on twitter, you don't have to look very hard for someone who's being an absolutely arse hole about something.

There's an element of 'never interrupt your enemy while he's making a mistake' here. If there are anti-trans folk on twitter using the GRA debate to spout transphobia, they're going to make themselves look like arse holes and tarnish the anti-GRA side with that. But the natural reaction for too many people is "I cannot let this go unanswered, I must attack back" and too often that basically boils down to "everyone not in favour of the GRA is an anti-trans bigot". Instead of showing up an arse hole as an arse hole, or just leaving an arse hole to make themselves look like an arse hole, you've just entrenched a whole bunch of people against your position by being an arse hole yourself. And so the cycle repeats forever. And everyone can bask in the self-righteous glory of not being quite as much of an arse hole as the arse hole that prompted them to act like an arse hole in the first place.

Edited March 1, 2021 by Gordon EF

[NotThePars]

1 minute ago, Gordon EF said:

There's an element of 'never interrupt your enemy while he's making a mistake' here. If there are anti-trans folk on twitter using the GRA debate to spout transphobia, they're going to make themselves look like arse holes and tarnish the anti-GRA side with that. 

Speaking of which (and interested to know what the Blow Job Wars were)

 

[GordonS]

4 hours ago, Pato said:

Yeah and that's what I don't like. Ascribing a disappointing result to stats instead of events. There was a good article in the National yesterday showing that the SNP are still on course to wipe the floor with everyone else, but support is dipping in a manner similar to the run up to the 2016 election.

I'd much rather the SNP (privately) ignored all the most optimistic polling and operated under the assumption the most pessimistic ones were the true results.

But you cannot ascribe movement well within the margin of error in a poll to events. Also, as UK Polling Report has shown repeatedly down the years, people constantly project their opinions onto movement in polls that turn out to be, in the long run, random variation.

Reality is that there is at best a 1-2% reduction in the SNP constituency polling after a significant rise through last year, and the reduction in their regional polling correlates with the increase in Green polling. That will presumably be a concern for the SNP, but it's not a leakage out of the independence camp.

The SNP's dip in the run up to the 2016 election was probably an unwinding of an unrealistically high level after the referendum. What we're seeing now - if anything - might be something similar.

[GordonS]

7 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

So you don't think Cherry's faction are clearly preparing some sort of leadership challenge in the short to medium term?

Fk I misread your post. I am a moron.

I will delete my post.

Apologies.

Edited March 1, 2021 by GordonS

[SandyCromarty]

2 hours ago, KingRocketman II said:

But with the BBC. Scotland's media in general and with the support of the opposition parties, this issue has taken on a whole new level of priority in Scotland. Regardless  of this, and as an aside, my personal view is that if someone's support for independence waivers because of this issue, you really do have to question why that person was voting for indy in the first place........ 

 

Well put and true to the point.

However there's no doubt Salmond has done damage which with time he will regret as this is all that this is all he will remembered for sadly.

The real damage is very much in the short term even though the unionists and tory media will be harping on about up until the May election, but even they know todays public soon tires of the same old news.

As that slippery eel of a Politician, Harold Wilson, so aptly put it, "A week in Politics is a long time".

So let the Better Together  labour and tory parties have their Salmond day in the sun as it will soon fade. 

 

[Gordon EF]

1 hour ago, GordonS said:

But you cannot ascribe movement well within the margin of error in a poll to events. Also, as UK Polling Report has shown repeatedly down the years, people constantly project their opinions onto movement in polls that turn out to be, in the long run, random variation.

Reality is that there is at best a 1-2% reduction in the SNP constituency polling after a significant rise through last year, and the reduction in their regional polling correlates with the increase in Green polling. That will presumably be a concern for the SNP, but it's not a leakage out of the independence camp.

The SNP's dip in the run up to the 2016 election was probably an unwinding of an unrealistically high level after the referendum. What we're seeing now - if anything - might be something similar.

What are the bold and faded lines on this graph?

Edit: Ah, yeah. It's constituency and regional list. Makes sense.

You're correct. It is far too soon to say that there's been any real measurable effect on the SNP's polling due to the Salmond stuff. I'm not saying it won't take a hit but it remains to be seen. I also don't think you can really take the constituency number staying relatively stable and the regional number dropping (if that's what future polls bare out) as any real indicator that people are losing faith in the SNP or independence. 

Edited March 1, 2021 by Gordon EF

[Benjamin_Nevis]

I don't care. I want them to assume there's a real cause and tighten every bolt on the ship. As you point out we're seeing the same dip that we saw in 2016, and the SNP was polling 60+% at one point in 2016 and ended up in minority government. I just cannot understand why people's first response to stuff like this is to go for some technical explanation.
And as ever, if you're explaining, you're losing.

Yeah this all have heavy vibes of 2016. The ideal scenario is a sudden early lift of restrictions which would result in:

1. A poll boost at exactly the right time
2. Allow me to go west and spend a fortnight hillwalking and getting pished.

This is obviously both cynical and selfish, but I'd be chuffed AF with such an outcome.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Yeah this all have heavy vibes of 2016. The ideal scenario is a sudden early lift of restrictions which would result in:

1. A poll boost at exactly the right time
2. Allow me to go west and spend a fortnight hillwalking and getting pished.

This is obviously both cynical and selfish, but I'd be chuffed AF with such an outcome.

I would not be surprised at all if they lift restrictions earlier than planned.

[Baxter Parp]

https://nation.cymru/news/poll-shows-highest-support-for-welsh-independence-ever-recorded/

Poll shows highest support for Welsh independence ever recorded

An ITV poll has shown the highest support for independence ever recorded with 39% of Welsh people saying they would now vote ‘yes’ in a referendum.

[GordonS]

8 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said:

https://nation.cymru/news/poll-shows-highest-support-for-welsh-independence-ever-recorded/

Poll shows highest support for Welsh independence ever recorded

An ITV poll has shown the highest support for independence ever recorded with 39% of Welsh people saying they would now vote ‘yes’ in a referendum.

Worth noting that in the 2011 census 21% of the population of Wales were born in England. 

[BFTD]

If you'd come to me, say, thirty years ago and said that it in 2021, it would be seriously looking like Scotland would vote for independence, I'd have been shocked. Happy, but shocked.

If you'd then told me that the Welsh would be recording those types of numbers for independence, I'd have told you to get fucked, as you're clearly at it. They've always liked to preserve a bit of their own identity, and liked a wee GIRUY to England over things like advertising jobs in Welsh only, but they've been absolutely welded on to England for so long that the seam is no longer visible.

Cornwall next. What a time to be alive.

[Lurkst]

Pretty remarkable number. Welsh independence was polling 17% in the week of Indyref1.

[Highland Capital]

I wonder what the chances of the Isle of Man going for a referendum are. They’re basically independent already but I wonder if, particularly if Scotland went, they would go for full sovereignty.

[GordonS]

15 minutes ago, Highland Capital said:

I wonder what the chances of the Isle of Man going for a referendum are. They’re basically independent already but I wonder if, particularly if Scotland went, they would go for full sovereignty.

I don't think they'd feel the need, they're effectively independent anyway but don't have to pay for some of the big-ticket items like an army. They're not interested in joining the EU or having an army so they've got what they want. 

[Baxter Parp]

34 minutes ago, GordonS said:

They're not interested in joining the EU

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1401184/brexit-news-UK-waters-EU-isle-of-man-fishing-france-howard-quayle

Brexit argeement: Isle of Man allows EU ships into Manx waters after transition period

Maybe a wee bit interested.

[Blootoon87]

Preparing myself for the biggest minter in world history when Wales leave then we vote to stay.

[Ned Nederlander]

39% Wales

(and 53% Scotland )