Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[LongTimeLurker]

2 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

Ok I bow out the argument at the allegations of having fascist ideologies, ive put in quite reasoned arguments for my opinions on things and even set out my own feelings on what I want a government to do policy wise but now getting the ‘sounds like fascism’ crap. 

Get a grip. All that was being pointed out is why it doesn't have the greatest track record.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I see the Sunday Mail have described support for Yes as 'plunged'.  
With Don't Knows excluded, it's gone down...2%.

It's actually 1%.

That's 5 people to put a little perspective on it.

Given that this one of the pollsters that is not usually as favourable to Independence, and a start to the week that was not exactly positive for the Scottish Government, the real surprise is that Yes's vote still appears very solid - despite the onslaught from the opposition and the MSM.

[Highland Capital]

4 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

It's actually 1%.

That's 5 people to put a little perspective on it.

Indeed.  No still isn't ahead with Don't Knows included.  It could be a better result for Yes...but it's hardly a ringing endorsement of No either.

[Highland Capital]

21 minutes ago, Pato said:

No is on 44% vs yes on 43% with DK included isn't it?

Was getting my polls mixed up.  Still...all to play for.  If anything this poll might remind some quarters within Yes not to become too complacent.

Edited February 28, 2021 by Highland Capital

[Lex]

Guess polls are bad again now one has shown yes to be behind [emoji28]
Irrelevant anyway, there won’t be another legally binding referendum.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Guess polls are bad again now one has shown yes to be behind [emoji28]
Irrelevant anyway, there won’t be another legally binding referendum.

They are statistically neck and neck in a poll by the organisation that has the most anti-indy bias.

We'll see what happens come May and not after a ridiculous of over the top week of attacks based on hearsay, opinion and downright lies.

[strichener]

5 hours ago, Baxter Parp said:

There has never been a flawless government of any country ever.

You would never know it with the way you defend the indefensible when it is critisism of the SNP.

[Baxter Parp]

1 hour ago, strichener said:

You would never know it with the way you defend the indefensible when it is critisism of the SNP.

Oooo zing.

[Anonapersona]

18 hours ago, DrewDon said:

We can offer Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire to Westminster in the post-referendum independence negotiations. 

Giving parts of Scotland to the English will really show them we mean business.

[Elixir]

As I previously said on the Covid-19 thread, the Salmond saga, coupled with Sturgeon's lack of providing the same hope as the UK vision out of lockdown, no matter how contentious, could prevent the SNP from getting a majority.

No majority will then mean no referendum, even if the Greens make it a pro-independence majority, as unionists have set this narrative. And the SNP will proceed to drag their feet for another five years and fail to capitalise on the anger of Brexit, which will slowly fade away...

Granny Danger types can put their fingers in their ears if they like, but they need to sort this shit show out and portray a new, positive vision. Fast.

[SANTAN]

[DeeTillEhDeh]

This always, always sounds a bit straw-graspy.

It's not.

Out of the pollsters Survation consistently has the lowest figures for Yes.

Ipsos/Mori are at the other end where they had Yes polling 58% at one point - they are possibly overestimating the figures for Yes.

Part of the reason for differences was the polling in the run up to the 2014 IndyRef where there they missed the secret No voters - they all weight their figures differently - Survation much more than Ipsos/Mori.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

It used to be yougov everyone said this about. If they're all credentialled in the same way it just sounds a bit desperate. Like it's more comforting to convince yourself it's a methodological gremlin and not an issue that could be addressed if tackled head on.

They are not all done the same way which is the point.

It's why I also said that the 58% for Ipsos/Mori looked like an outlier the other way.

In any case you don't look at polls in isolation - not unless you are a moronic editor for the Sunday Mail.

A 1% swing is not statistically significant in isolation.

If there are a series of polls that continue to drop in the same direction that will be significant.

[GordonS]

48 minutes ago, Pato said:

It used to be yougov everyone said this about. If they're all credentialled in the same way it just sounds a bit desperate. Like it's more comforting to convince yourself it's a methodological gremlin and not an issue that could be addressed if tackled head on.

I'm pretty sure he meant a statistical bias rather than a prejudice. And it's true, that pollster gets lower figures for independence than other pollsters, so it's a matter of methodology.

It doesn't mean they're wrong of course, they could be right and the others are overestimating support.

There's literally nothing in the polling in the past week to suggest that support for independence has fallen. More polls would be required to see if that's happened.

[GordonS]

8 hours ago, Pato said:

you're an optimist. The anti-trans and pro-equality wings will just take it as a signal things would be fine if those other b*****ds over there would just shut up.

It's easy to bracket the two sides in this civil war together and I know you weren't doing that, but it's worth saying the reality is that the pro-equality wing said nothing until the anti-trans wing killed the Gender Recognition Reform Bill (which the electorate support), and while one side is defending trans people the other is claiming that the leader of the party, a group of women and the nation's prosecutors conspired to concoct false allegations of sexual assaults against the former party leader, who was out of politics and had been her mentor, for no apparent reason at all, in a thing that was likely to hurt the party and everyone involved. They also accuse said party leader of not being in favour of the party's key policy, despite her working herself to the bone for decades to achieve it. They want to replace her in spite of the fact she's the most popular politician the country has ever had. And, y'know, other stuff like donating to a crowdfunder to sue one of their colleagues. That kind of thing.

Now both sides are radicalised and detest the other. All Johnson has to do is flatly deny a referendum and watch them tear themselves apart.

[renton]

9 hours ago, GordonS said:

It's easy to bracket the two sides in this civil war together and I know you weren't doing that, but it's worth saying the reality is that the pro-equality wing said nothing until the anti-trans wing killed the Gender Recognition Reform Bill (which the electorate support), and while one side is defending trans people the other is claiming that the leader of the party, a group of women and the nation's prosecutors conspired to concoct false allegations of sexual assaults against the former party leader, who was out of politics and had been her mentor, for no apparent reason at all, in a thing that was likely to hurt the party and everyone involved. They also accuse said party leader of not being in favour of the party's key policy, despite her working herself to the bone for decades to achieve it. They want to replace her in spite of the fact she's the most popular politician the country has ever had. And, y'know, other stuff like donating to a crowdfunder to sue one of their colleagues. That kind of thing.

Now both sides are radicalised and detest the other. All Johnson has to do is flatly deny a referendum and watch them tear themselves apart.

I think this is a really important point.

I don't see how the SNP gets out of this now without mortally wounding itself.

If, as some posters on the other thread suggested, Salmond is playing 4D chess and will shortly bring Sturgeon down alongside just about everyone else in the leadership circle. Then, 2 months before an election we will have a hotly contested leadership between factions. That will likely be 4 weeks of fairly bad tempered politicking when they should be managing their way out of Covid lockdown and writing a manifesto.

Not that it matters. A party who's leader had to resign 2 months before an election with the implication she tried to have her predecessor jailed? No one is voting for that party. Not even if it is Salmond's hand picked designate.

On the other hand, Sturgeon gets wired in on Wednesday comes out strong and probably only has to lose a civil servant or two into the process. The Salmond faction will never trust her, and will be more than happy to chuck rocks from the side. Maybe a considerable bunch of them decamp to another party. It probably costs the party a majority if the infighting is loud enough to turn the public off in May.

If Sturgeon goes down, then I think it's probably game over for the SNP in government, and the indy movement for 10 years at least.

If she hangs on, then best case scenario is another government of similar composition to now, and try and get a indy ref in the parliament after that, probably with a new leader by then anyway.

 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Yeah and that's what I don't like. Ascribing a disappointing result to stats instead of events. There was a good article in the National yesterday showing that the SNP are still on course to wipe the floor with everyone else, but support is dipping in a manner similar to the run up to the 2016 election.
I'd much rather the SNP (privately) ignored all the most optimistic polling and operated under the assumption the most pessimistic ones were the true results.

That's not what I said though.

A disappointing result? There has been a 1% drop - this is not a huge drop that the Sunday Mail has been making it.

Yes there should not be complacency but equally the knicker-wetting by some is a complete overreaction.

What I will say is that someone needs to knock heads together - the Salmond inquiry, the trans wars and general infighting does independence no favours at all.

[John Lambies Doos]

It's staggering reading how much doom and gloom is being predicted due to a state media frenzy of a non event. Yet, south of the border Hancock acts unlawfully, BJ rips up international treaty's and Patal bullies the civil service. Cue 7 point gain for Tory's.
Its so Scottish

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Sorry wasn't aiming that at you - you'd said that the 58% was an outlier as well.
A poll indicating a minority in favour of independence is disappointing after the run of the last year.

To be fair - taking the poll on the night before Salmond's testimony, with a vague route map on Tuesday and Boris's midsummer madness - it was not a surprise.

There seemed to be a change of tack the rest of the week regards the route map - perhaps the SNP's own private polling or reading of reactions convinced them to shift. If they can get out of lockdown restrictions quicker than envisaged then it will be a big help.

I also, as I have said on another thread, think that Salmond cooled the whole tone of the inquiry on Friday - it seemed to me that his target was not Sturgeon herself but others - I think they need to have serious consideration to certain individuals resigning - Lesley Evans is one I think who has to hold her hands up and say she is ultimately responsible for the failings of the initial investigation. Unless they do this then things will fester on - as I said, it needs someone to knock heads together to see the potential damage they are doing to the independence cause. It needs to be seriously nipped in the bud and dealt with appropriately.

[thisal]

I personally don't believe that Salmond's impending testimony had as much influence on that poll as the UK's vaccine response v the EU's.