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John Lambies Doos

Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

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Thought this was interesting on polling - across Europe, governing parties have had a bounce because of Covid-19. Even in Italy and Spain, where they haven't had improvements in their voter intention numbers, their approval ratings have increased.

https://europeelects.eu/2020/04/01/coronavirus-european-leaders-enjoy-surging-approval-ratings-amid-crisis/ 

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1 minute ago, GordonS said:

Thought this was interesting on polling - across Europe, governing parties have had a bounce because of Covid-19. Even in Italy and Spain, where they haven't had improvements in their voter intention numbers, their approval ratings have increased.

https://europeelects.eu/2020/04/01/coronavirus-european-leaders-enjoy-surging-approval-ratings-amid-crisis/ 

Logically one could expect the Tories to see a boost in Scotland too but it hasn't happened as much?

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4 minutes ago, Sunrise said:

Logically one could expect the Tories to see a boost in Scotland too but it hasn't happened as much?

The bounce has gone to the SNP because they're in charge here. The most recent poll had them over 50% on the constituencies and 48% on the lists.

http://ballotbox.scot/panelbase-24th-26th-mar-2020

ETA - Tories are up in that poll too.

Edited by GordonS

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Logically one could expect the Tories to see a boost in Scotland too but it hasn't happened as much?


You’re right and I think some of that goes down to the way that Sturgeon has dealt with everything publicly. I know a few people who make no secret to the fact they loath her and what she stands for, but have been impressed with how she has acted. I’m not saying those people will now vote SNP, I doubt they will but there will be others who will.

I suspect the poll above could be closer to the truth and I suspect SNP will gain in numbers whilst Tory drop and Labour have the worst election since the Scottish Parliament was formed. I can also see the SSP and Green’s picking up (more) seats through the list vote and tactical voting to strengthen the Independence majority.

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40 minutes ago, GordonS said:

Thought this was interesting on polling - across Europe, governing parties have had a bounce because of Covid-19. Even in Italy and Spain, where they haven't had improvements in their voter intention numbers, their approval ratings have increased.

https://europeelects.eu/2020/04/01/coronavirus-european-leaders-enjoy-surging-approval-ratings-amid-crisis/ 

Think there's a natural psychological reaction to a crisis that the people in charge should be left alone to handle it as best they can, and that will transfer to some extent in polling. It doesn't last long though, see Churchill as someone pointed out before.

Edited by welshbairn

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7 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Think there's a natural psychological reaction to a crisis that the people in charge should be left alone to handle it as best they can, and that will transfer to some extent in polling. It doesn't last long though, see Churchill as someone pointed out before.

Totally agree, it's a national unity thing and it only last as long as the crisis does. How it's handled though could have a longer-term impact; Bush never recovered from Hurricane Katrina.

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You’re right and I think some of that goes down to the way that Sturgeon has dealt with everything publicly. I know a few people who make no secret to the fact they loath her and what she stands for, but have been impressed with how she has acted. I’m not saying those people will now vote SNP, I doubt they will but there will be others who will.

I suspect the poll above could be closer to the truth and I suspect SNP will gain in numbers whilst Tory drop and Labour have the worst election since the Scottish Parliament was formed. I can also see the SSP and Green’s picking up (more) seats through the list vote and tactical voting to strengthen the Independence majority.
Idiots like Historywoman are still putting out their uber-Unionist shite - just utter fucking roasters.

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1 hour ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:
2 hours ago, BB_Bino said:


You’re right and I think some of that goes down to the way that Sturgeon has dealt with everything publicly. I know a few people who make no secret to the fact they loath her and what she stands for, but have been impressed with how she has acted. I’m not saying those people will now vote SNP, I doubt they will but there will be others who will.

I suspect the poll above could be closer to the truth and I suspect SNP will gain in numbers whilst Tory drop and Labour have the worst election since the Scottish Parliament was formed. I can also see the SSP and Green’s picking up (more) seats through the list vote and tactical voting to strengthen the Independence majority.

Idiots like Historywoman are still putting out their uber-Unionist shite - just utter fucking roasters.

Steve Sayers is banned fae Twitter, sweet merciful f**k.

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Latest YouGov poll has the SSP (yes the SSP!) winning a seat in Holyrood next year.

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18 minutes ago, Highland Capital said:

Latest YouGov poll has the SSP (yes the SSP!) winning a seat in Holyrood next year.

Wow......think what damage a genuinely independence focused party could do.

Time for rethink at SNP headquarters......before it's too late.

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55 minutes ago, Lurkst said:

Thumping lead for the SNP,  can't see mention of the SSP though...

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2020/05/unionist-journalists-learn-hard-way.html?m=1

So the whole Salmond debacle has apparently not had the negative impact that was forecast by the unionists.

The biggest and most important aspect of this is the continued political support for the SNP, hopefully taking us a step closer to Independence.

However tonight I’m going to take some pleasure out of the less important aspect, all the unionist twàts, both blue and red, who will be bealing at these figures.

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11 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

So the whole Salmond debacle has apparently not had the negative impact that was forecast by the unionists.

The biggest and most important aspect of this is the continued political support for the SNP, hopefully taking us a step closer to Independence.

However tonight I’m going to take some pleasure out of the less important aspect, all the unionist twàts, both blue and red, who will be bealing at these figures.

Some of that support will die back after the Coronavirus issue has passed from it's current high tempo. Sturgeon is getting plaudits for her undoubted communication skills and that general tendency to rally around leadership during a crisis.

Basically, that lead is soft. As nice a story as it is.

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Some of that support will die back after the Coronavirus issue has passed from it's current high tempo. Sturgeon is getting plaudits for her undoubted communication skills and that general tendency to rally around leadership during a crisis.
Basically, that lead is soft. As nice a story as it is.
Tick Tock. Very pleasing

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17 minutes ago, renton said:

Some of that support will die back after the Coronavirus issue has passed from it's current high tempo. Sturgeon is getting plaudits for her undoubted communication skills and that general tendency to rally around leadership during a crisis.

Basically, that lead is soft. As nice a story as it is.

The same arguments apply to the party sitting in second place in that poll though, with a Iain Gray level non-entity now at the helm. There's no obvious place for that soft vote to transfer towards that would cause significant damage to The Only Show in Town; it would only be the difference between an outright majority or not.

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I find it very strange that given the inability to contain coronavirus and the fact the UK is a laughing stock internationally for its pish poor attempts to control it that any party of government in the UK is seeing a rise in support, surely the electorate are not that stupid?

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37 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:
53 minutes ago, renton said:
Some of that support will die back after the Coronavirus issue has passed from it's current high tempo. Sturgeon is getting plaudits for her undoubted communication skills and that general tendency to rally around leadership during a crisis.
Basically, that lead is soft. As nice a story as it is.

Tick Tock. Very pleasing

Don't give me that knee jerk shit. I'm not some ruddy faced Yoon with a blog here. I'm pro Indy, but there has to be a strong suspicion that this lead is soft as shit. 

The SNP had a respectable lead going into the new year, and while it is reasonable to suggest that the Salmond trial itself did not harm the SNP, it was never likely to: the biggest threat to the SNP from that subject is the various factional infighting that is presently on deep freeze, not gone. Let's also face the fact that any Salmond conspiracy theories are really only a proxy  for the real schism which is between a redefined set of gradualists and fundamentalists. That is a challenge that needs to be faced, yet. So excuse me for not popping champagne corks because of a mammoth lead in a time of crisis. Even Gordon Brown's numbers ticked upwards in the aftermath of the banking crisis.

Let's not also lose sight of the fact that as we transition out of the rally round phase of this crisis into the inevitable blame game, there are bound to be accusations and recriminations regarding timing of lockdown, death rates in care homes and the 4 nation approach to dealing with it. 

None of that may stick to Sturgeon and by extension the SNP, some of it may. It could well be a more challenging issue for Sturgeon's leadership than any Salmond fall out

 

Edited by renton

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