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Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence


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Two polling companies asking the independence question. Survation and YouGov

I imagine Survation are for Progress Scotland, not sure who You Gov are conducting the polling for - could be private or perhaps a newspaper to coincide with the FM announcement next week. 

 

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On 26/01/2020 at 19:36, Colkitto said:

Two polling companies asking the independence question. Survation and YouGov

I imagine Survation are for Progress Scotland, not sure who You Gov are conducting the polling for - could be private or perhaps a newspaper to coincide with the FM announcement next week. 

 

Quote

A sample of 1,019 respondents across the country took part in the survey, which was conducted by Survation for polling and pro-independence thinktank Progress Scotland from January 20-22.

It found 61% of those who expressed an opinion believe the Scottish Parliament should ultimately decide on the holding of an independence referendum while 39% believe it should be Westminster.

https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/1106219/majority-of-scots-think-holyrood-should-have-indyref2-powers-according-to-poll/

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On 26/01/2020 at 19:36, Colkitto said:

Two polling companies asking the independence question. Survation and YouGov

I imagine Survation are for Progress Scotland, not sure who You Gov are conducting the polling for - could be private or perhaps a newspaper to coincide with the FM announcement next week. 

 

YouGov has Yes on 51%. 

 

Would love to see the Survation poll now! 

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Yes: 50%

No: 50%

 

Holyrood Voting Intention

 

Constituency Vote

 

Con: 23%

Lab: 17%

Lib Dem: 7%

SNP: 51%

Another Party: 1%

 

Regional List Vote

 

Con: 21%

Lab: 19%

Lib Dem: 9%

SNP: 38%

Scottish Greens: 9%

Another Party: 3%

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Surely at some point Labour have to realise they are finished up here, and that they'd stand a far better chance of being elected in an independent Scotland where they aren't hamstrung by their conservative and unionist bretheren in Westminster.

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Yes: 50%

No: 50%

 

Holyrood Voting Intention

 

Constituency Vote

 

Con: 23%

Lab: 17%

Lib Dem: 7%

SNP: 51%

Another Party: 1%

 

Regional List Vote

 

Con: 21%

Lab: 19%

Lib Dem: 9%

SNP: 38%

Scottish Greens: 9%

Another Party: 3%

Am I right in thinking these results would give Snp a majority?
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I'm not sure, LibDem list vote is quite high compared to 2011, and SNP list vote is a good bit lower. Someone can do the complicated maths I suppose.
Not sure how reliable these models are but Cutbot's model from a few years ago predicts:
SNP 66
TORY 24
LABOUR 23
GREEN 9
LIB DEM 7
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49 minutes ago, DublinMagyar said:
2 hours ago, Colkitto said:

Yes: 50%

No: 50%

 

Holyrood Voting Intention

 

Constituency Vote

 

Con: 23%

Lab: 17%

Lib Dem: 7%

SNP: 51%

Another Party: 1%

 

Regional List Vote

 

Con: 21%

Lab: 19%

Lib Dem: 9%

SNP: 38%

Scottish Greens: 9%

Another Party: 3%

Am I right in thinking these results would give Snp a majority?

Uniform swing could give SNP 66 seats 

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That seems about a similar jump in the vote for the constituency vote as it is a drop for the regional vote. Can't imagine it would make a huge difference in the number of seats. Maybe a slight gain overall which would possibly be enough to get a slim majority of their own?

Is that an increase for the greens?

Edited by Rodhull
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