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Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence


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While individual polls cannot be taken as predictions of the final vote and should only used to analyse trends in sentiment over a period of time (i.e which parties are becoming more or less popular not what the final vote will be) etc etc etc.

This might cheer one or two up.

 

Its worth noting that the trend in polls is still for a Tory victory but since the election was called many have been saying the "dont knows" are likely to break Labour in the later weeks.

Its only one poll, it may be completely rogue and yesterdays events in London Bridge may harden opinions in the opposite direction (lots of reasons but not worth writing it all out right now)

 

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Time to break out another scare story

While individual polls cannot be taken as predictions of the final vote and should only used to analyse trends in sentiment over a period of time (i.e which parties are becoming more or less popular not what the final vote will be) etc etc etc.
This might cheer one or two up.
 
Its worth noting that the trend in polls is still for a Tory victory but since the election was called many have been saying the "dont knows" are likely to break Labour in the later weeks.
Its only one poll, it may be completely rogue and yesterdays events in London Bridge may harden opinions in the opposite direction (lots of reasons but not worth writing it all out right now)
 
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Imagine being surprised that the tories are polling well in a constituency where people are so servile and cretinous that lights and shop signs arent allowed to be green for fear of being vandalised.
Living in this area and being a SNP voter, I can confirm this is very much the case, and its not just the bastion of knuckledragging unionism, that is Larkhall.
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Some constituency polling came out yesterday.

Beaconsfield : Tory 53% ; Dominic Grieve 36%; Labour 7%

Esher/Walton (Dominic Raab) : Tory 41% ; Libs 36% ; Labour 9%

Not a fan of the Lib Dems but if they could nab Raab's seat that would certainly be very nice!

Edited by Kejan
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37 minutes ago, Kejan said:

Some constituency polling came out yesterday.

Beaconsfield : Tory 53% ; Dominic Grieve 36%; Labour 7%

Esher/Walton (Dominic Raab) : Tory 36% ; Libs 41% ; Labour 9%

Not a fan of the Lib Dems but if they could nab Raab's seat that would certainly be very nice!

Heard that if Boris loses his seat Raab would hold the PM throne for him while they sort out a quick safe by-election. Mon the Libs!

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Think Labour need to ramp up 3 things this week....keep chipping away at the NHS being sold out to American pharma, (1 week to save the NHS etc), keep banging on about the Tories 9 year record in govt, and talk up the Brexit stance of it being 'sorted' in 6 months (even though it won't be).

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12 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Heard that if Boris loses his seat Raab would hold the PM throne for him while they sort out a quick safe by-election. Mon the Libs!

Surely in the sadly unlikely but utterly brilliant scenario that Johnson does lose his seat and they decide to parachute him in somewhere else for a by-election, even Labour and Lib Dems will agree along with the other parties to stand aside in the by-election for whoever came second in the constituency they choose to have the best shot at keeping him out?

I know they’d probably be picking a seat somewhere in Lincolnshire or an equally hideous place that pretty much never drops below 60% for the Tories, but you’d hope everyone would throw their weight behind one candidate and do everything they can to get the turnout up.

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Labour have improved but the chances of a Tory working majority are high. The big differece between 2017 is largely that Corbyns personal polling has barely moved. He is a well known quantity now to the public, who have largely made their minds up on him, that and the Tories have run the campaign they should have run in 2017. This means Labour have been far less able to take votes off the Tories. 

 

 

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We have to hope that "dont knows"and under counting of youth vote may swing us towards a hung parliament. Also some constituency based polling has shown bigger gains for the LDs than UNS (uniform national swing). 

The big threat is a Labour collapse in the midlands and northern mid sized towns.  "Get Brexit Done" has a lot of appeal to people who feel the "elites" are thumbing their noses at their vote to leave in 2016. 

11 days. 

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16 hours ago, Jedi said:

Think Labour need to ramp up 3 things this week....keep chipping away at the NHS being sold out to American pharma, (1 week to save the NHS etc), keep banging on about the Tories 9 year record in govt, and talk up the Brexit stance of it being 'sorted' in 6 months (even though it won't be).

Think Labour need to ramp up 3 years ago tbh.

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