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Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence


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1 hour ago, Elixir said:

I find it disappointing that despite everything that has happened in the past three and a half years, at best things now seem to be on a knife edge, rather than decisively in favour of independence.

Also there's the fact that if we lose the next referendum it's the end of Sturgeon and the matter would then be done for a generation. Nobody comes close to having the gravitas or political nous that she does. It has to be her to lead this, even if it means waiting.

I agree it probably would be the end of Sturgeon. But why would it be done for a generation?

Does losing indyref2 bind future SNP  Governments? What if an SNP government had a majority in 2026 and wanted to implement it's indyref3 manifesto?  

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I'm fairly certain pandarilla would have described Hitler in the Twenties as having a few misguided ideas, but that he shouldn't have been dismissed out of hand.

Pol Pot - veers to the extreme, but you have to understand what's happening in Cambodia.

Ted Bundy - went too far, but you can see where his frustration with women comes from.

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10 hours ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:


Im sorry I just cannot agree, the tories are just horrible people. I think when a party represents the things we associate with the tories there is no redeeming feature. You can’t take the homer approach of ‘I disagree with his Bart killing policy but I agree with his Selma killing policy’ and vote for Sideshow Bob, you have to make a decision based on your values, if your values align with the actions, policies and behaviour of the tory party/politicians then you’re a wrong yin. You can’t say its acceptable to vote tory because they’ll cut your tax but not give a shit that they are responsible for the death of tens of thousands or are horrible c***s like Rees Mogg and Johnson.

Wooft, the state of this post.....

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10 hours ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

Im sorry I just cannot agree, the tories are just horrible people. I think when a party represents the things we associate with the tories there is no redeeming feature. You can’t take the homer approach of ‘I disagree with his Bart killing policy but I agree with his Selma killing policy’ and vote for Sideshow Bob, you have to make a decision based on your values, if your values align with the actions, policies and behaviour of the tory party/politicians then you’re a wrong yin. You can’t say its acceptable to vote tory because they’ll cut your tax but not give a shit that they are responsible for the death of tens of thousands or are horrible c***s like Rees Mogg and Johnson.

FFS, you're supposed to say "I'm alright, Jack" and carry on with your day.

Clearly you've learned nothing from Malksoft's many, many posts on the subject.

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Guest Bob Mahelp
12 hours ago, welshbairn said:

I'm still hoping that the "soft" Tory vote has been seriously under counted in the polls.

Firstly, I'm not sure that a 'soft' Tory voter exists anymore. People vote Tory in general because they hold right-wing values, and with the Tories now swinging to the far-right these voters will simply re-appraise and re-adjust their own values to match this. 

Secondly, the fact remains that if a 'soft' Tory voter is looking for an alternative, what is there ? It's unlikely these voters will swing right round the political scale and vote for Labour under Corbyn.  

The only possibility is that they'll vote LibDem, but all the polling suggests that simply isn't happening.  

I suspect Tories...whether 'hard or 'soft'.....are dazzled by the bright lights that Johnson is shining, and will continue to vote for the party. All the evidence shows that the Tory vote is holding up, so I'm afraid your hope may be a rather forlorn one. 

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I think that it's  all over for Labour for this election, not that they ever had a sniff. The Tories have played a blinder.

Johnson did a couple of shows, performed adequately to badly but now he'll hide it out pretty much for three weeks.  The election pamphlet mascarading as a "manifesto" does all it needs to and that is appeal to working class gommons- get Brexit done and maybe a tax cut. A load of folk will also look at 3bn additional spending compared to 89bn or whatever Labour were proposing and think f**k that. 

It's  over.

 

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17 hours ago, Antlion said:

I reckon Scots tend to be more sceptical of political authority than those down south, who go a bundle for tradition and deference. Possibly it’s because Scotland’s authority figures have been situated mainly down south for centuries, and partly because Scotland’s political traditions and customs were all binned with the advent of union whilst England’s rituals and customs continued, becoming ever more fetishised in London. 

I think the newspapers in Scotland have less impact on opinion compared to those down in England.

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13 hours ago, welshbairn said:

The small c in the Conservative party which used to be a reasonable excuse for voting Tory has gone out of the window since they invented Brexit. Fiscal conservatism, free market, pro business, gradual reform where necessary has gone out the window. They're now the Nihilist Anarchist Collective that even daft students would stay clear of.

They were also supposed to be the pragmatic party devoid of any utopian goals.  See what needs to be done and do it.  If there is not enough money for everything  so be it.

It has been a long time since the Tory party seemed anything like that.

Not that I would ever vote for them!

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1 hour ago, Bob Mahelp said:

Secondly, the fact remains that if a 'soft' Tory voter is looking for an alternative, what is there ? It's unlikely these voters will swing right round the political scale and vote for Labour under Corbyn.  

The only possibility is that they'll vote LibDem, but all the polling suggests that simply isn't happening.  

They might just not vote at all.

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5 hours ago, BigFatTabbyDave said:

I'm fairly certain pandarilla would have described Hitler in the Twenties as having a few misguided ideas, but that he shouldn't have been dismissed out of hand.

Pol Pot - veers to the extreme, but you have to understand what's happening in Cambodia...

Not getting involved in the pandarilla thing, but from what I understand Noam Chomsky, who usually has something highly insightful to offer, is alleged to have referred to the Khmer Rouge as "agrarian reformers" shortly after year zero had commenced. Definitely best to always be wary of what nutters will do when handed power with no checks and balances.

 

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Boris was in Wales today. Not sure about his magic touch. 

 

 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Wales#Results_summary

 

Labour about 10% down on 2017. Tories and Plaid about even. Brexit and LD's up on UKIP and the LD's  vote share in 2017.

Cant really say how it will go, you would expect Labour to take losses but perhaps the Brexit Party might chew into as much of the Conservative vote as the Labour one in Labour held seats. 

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The good times are just around the corner. The argument for Indy is being won. Indy the best opportunity and Brexit the greater threat to Scotland.

 

 

Not really sure if that poll shows anything at all to be honest. 45% of the people asked would vote Yes, 24% of those asked voted to leave and the rest don’t want either or don’t give a f**k.

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Could someone explain what "the social and cultural beliefs of the traditional working classes" are, please? Mixu's been hinting at it, but I've a feeling I know why Nigel wasn't keen to go into details about what he thinks they are.

 

Belief in the nation state,

Sceptical of increasing cultural diversity

Tougher views on crime and justice

Belief in personal responsibility,

Little regard for political correctness,

Dubious about sex and gender being fluid concepts.

 

 

The tory party better reflect those views than any other mainstream party. If you could combine a more Tory like party on social issues with a more labour like party on the economy (state industries, workers rights, fairer distribution of wealth etc) then it would breeze an election.

 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, Nigel said:

Belief in the nation state,

Sceptical of increasing cultural diversity

Tougher views on crime and justice

Belief in personal responsibility,

Little regard for political correctness,

Dubious about sex and gender being fluid concepts.

You have listed the social values prevelant in the 1960s, not ones specific to the "working class". 

For example on gay rights

Clements-figures-attitudes-to-homosexual

 

Opposition has dropped massively in the past couple of decades. 

Similar trends on immigration. 

 

_105886676_imm_chart-nc.png

 

The Conservative party always aims its message towards the older more reactionary elements of society, while Labour, in part tends to appeal to the younger.  Trying to make this out to be some kind of class issue is a nonsense. 

 

 

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