Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[pandarilla]

Could someone explain what "the social and cultural beliefs of the traditional working classes" are, please?
Mixu's been hinting at it, but I've a feeling I know why Nigel wasn't keen to go into details about what he thinks they are.

He got slaughtered because he said Tories were the party for the traditional working class in the way that Jordan Peele or Lenny Kravitz are half traditional.

There's no doubt he's wildly generalising but that's not to say there's not something there.

There's the unionist connection which is obviously historic but has obviously reared its head recently. But I also think the Scottish psyche has an element of 'don't get above your station' about it. That's quite conservative (small c). The of authority of the Kirk probably has something to do with that.

But obviously there's also a massive labour movement psyche as well, which is why we've tended to support left wing policies more than south of the border.

[Donathan]

The Labour and Lib Dem vote are collapsing in Scotland, unsurprising because Scotland is turning into a straight battle of half the population wanting to be an independent country in Europe and the other half wanting to be part of a post-Brexit UK.

IMO, Sturgeon has played a bit of a mare going too heavy on the independence point and not on the stop Brexit point. Remember, there’s a massive cohort of voters in Scotland who voted against independence in 2014 and then voted to stay in the EU. Some of them may be reluctant yessers now but they’re certainly not card carrying Nats, and remaining in the EU is a much bigger target for that group.

[BFTD]

5 minutes ago, pandarilla said:

There's no doubt he's wildly generalising but that's not to say there's not something there.

There's the unionist connection which is obviously historic but has obviously reared its head recently. But I also think the Scottish psyche has an element of 'don't get above your station' about it. That's quite conservative (small c). The of authority of the Kirk probably has something to do with that.

But obviously there's also a massive labour movement psyche as well, which is why we've tended to support left wing policies more than south of the border.

That doesn't answer my question.

Don't worry though, I was mainly curious if Nigel could lay out his beliefs without receiving the banhammer from one of our woke, university-educated mods.

[HTG]

11 minutes ago, Donathan said:

The Labour and Lib Dem vote are collapsing in Scotland, unsurprising because Scotland is turning into a straight battle of half the population wanting to be an independent country in Europe and the other half wanting to be part of a post-Brexit UK.

IMO, Sturgeon has played a bit of a mare going too heavy on the independence point and not on the stop Brexit point. Remember, there’s a massive cohort of voters in Scotland who voted against independence in 2014 and then voted to stay in the EU. Some of them may be reluctant yessers now but they’re certainly not card carrying Nats, and remaining in the EU is a much bigger target for that group.

Disagree. She had to go on the Indy ticket. As I've said before, every election since 2015 has seen the No side hammer out an anti-Indy message even though Sturgeon didn't focus on it. When she tries to point out that she's not pushing the indy line, she is accused of lying or trying to sneak it through. So, no more kidding on - let's get it done. 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

The 2 and a bit weeks should be spent reminding everyone the austerity policies that Kirsten's Hair et al have consistently voted for.

 

This election is not just about Brexit.

 

It's not even about independence and IndyRef2.

 

It's about stopping a cabal of right wing shitbags running the country

 

 

[Antlion]

18 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

Definitely right about the Kirk, it's the same attitude you find across Northern Europe. I don't think it translates very precisely to political affinities though, at least not here.

I reckon Scots tend to be more sceptical of political authority than those down south, who go a bundle for tradition and deference. Possibly it’s because Scotland’s authority figures have been situated mainly down south for centuries, and partly because Scotland’s political traditions and customs were all binned with the advent of union whilst England’s rituals and customs continued, becoming ever more fetishised in London. 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

The Scots Tories are on course to only lose 1 seat.......a complete disaster.

This is the same Panelbase that predicted the Tories would get 33% in the run up to the last election.

 

They ended up 5% lower.

 

At the moment everything is to play for.

 

The Brexit Party are also standing in key Tory marginals whilst the Greens have withdrawn from key marginals as well - I'd be surprised if the Tories don't lose more than one MP.

 

Two key issues for me.

 

Will younger voters who voted Labour last time switch back to the SNP?

 

Where will the Labour vote go - to the SNP or to the Tories?

 

[tbsouth]

3 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

This is the same Panelbase that predicted the Tories would get 33% in the run up to the last election.

 

They ended up 5% lower.

 

At the moment everything is to play for.

 

The Brexit Party are also standing in key Tory marginals whilst the Greens have withdrawn from key marginals as well - I'd be surprised if the Tories don't lose more than one MP.

 

Two key issues for me.

 

Will younger voters who voted Labour last time switch back to the SNP?

 

Where will the Labour vote go - to the SNP or to the Tories?

 

Labour and Lib Dem will go to the Tories of course.

I am more interested in the 31 million people who weren't registered or voted in the EU ref......will they get off their backsides and make a difference??

[Highlandmagyar 2nd Tier]

6 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

This is the same Panelbase that predicted the Tories would get 33% in the run up to the last election.

 

They ended up 5% lower.

 

At the moment everything is to play for.

 

The Brexit Party are also standing in key Tory marginals whilst the Greens have withdrawn from key marginals as well - I'd be surprised if the Tories don't lose more than one MP.

 

Two key issues for me.

 

Will younger voters who voted Labour last time switch back to the SNP?

 

Where will the Labour vote go - to the SNP or to the Tories?

 

As a long time Labour voter, I know where my vote is going and it won't be Labour.

[pandarilla]

As a long time Labour voter, I know where my vote is going and it won't be Labour.

Can I ask what the issue is? And what party you're going to vote for?

(In my best canvassing voice)

[O'Kelly Isley III]

1 hour ago, Donathan said:

The Labour and Lib Dem vote are collapsing in Scotland, unsurprising because Scotland is turning into a straight battle of half the population wanting to be an independent country in Europe and the other half wanting to be part of a post-Brexit UK.

IMO, Sturgeon has played a bit of a mare going too heavy on the independence point and not on the stop Brexit point. Remember, there’s a massive cohort of voters in Scotland who voted against independence in 2014 and then voted to stay in the EU. Some of them may be reluctant yessers now but they’re certainly not card carrying Nats, and remaining in the EU is a much bigger target for that group.

What more would you have liked Sturgeon and the SNP to have done on Brexit ?  When the dust had settled on the 2016 Referendum result they attmpted a dialogue with the UK Government on several occasions on matters like devolving future EU immigration but it soon became obvious that it was Westminster's way or no way, a one-size-fits-all Brexit for all the UK.  May and her emissary Liddington were utterly intransigent from the word go.  For all Sturgeon's perceived faults, ignoring the collective interests of the Scottish people is not one of them.

And yet here we now are, all of us, with Johnson's oven-ready half-baked deal which parts the Irish Sea in the rabid desperation to get something, anything over the line. In circumstances like that you end up with shite, but hey-ho that's what Hartlepool man and woman want.

[Highlandmagyar 2nd Tier]

14 minutes ago, pandarilla said:

Can I ask what the issue is? And what party you're going to vote for?

(In my best canvassing voice)

I'd prefer to keep my counsel on that.

[HTG]

1 hour ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

The 2 and a bit weeks should be spent reminding everyone the austerity policies that Kirsten's Hair et al have consistently voted for.

 

This election is not just about Brexit.

 

It's not even about independence and IndyRef2.

 

It's about stopping a cabal of right wing shitbags running the country

 

 

It's about Brexit and Indy. It maybe shouldn't be but it is. The reaction to austerity - particularly down south - has already been articulated. They all want more money for the NHS but if you talk about re-nationalising industries, all you get is "who is going to pay for that?". Free Broadband - punters see it as a nice to have rather than a business necessity. In a lot of places down south "we're going to stop killing the poor" is being met by "and who will pay for that then, eh" in a rather aggressive tone. You can see it riven through the BBC comments section. 

In Scotland, this should be all about whether we trust England - not Labour - but England. England has lurched and a lot of us don't see it lurching back. It's hellish for those with a social conscience down there but it's time for Scotland to look after Scotland. 

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

I agree with your point about tactics, as this isn't an easy play for sturgeon.

We have to start being less critical about no voters and their intention though. The Tory guy got slaughtered a few posts back but he kind of has a point (although I wouldn't agree with Tory values being working class).

Most people are decent people, and aren't voting for selfish reasons. A lot of folk but into the old media narratives, not because of the big bad media but because it's difficult to open your brain up to very new ideas and thinking. The Labour manifesto is very radical and people are generally resistant to massive change. The same applies to independence.

No tory is a decent person.

[Malky3]

1 hour ago, HTG said:

Disagree. She had to go on the Indy ticket. As I've said before, every election since 2015 has seen the No side hammer out an anti-Indy message even though Sturgeon didn't focus on it. When she tries to point out that she's not pushing the indy line, she is accused of lying or trying to sneak it through. So, no more kidding on - let's get it done. 

The problem with that is that the majority of Scots don't want Independence. 

[Malky3]

1 hour ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

The 2 and a bit weeks should be spent reminding everyone the austerity policies that Kirsten's Hair et al have consistently voted for.

This election is not just about Brexit.

It's not even about independence and IndyRef2.

It's about stopping a cabal of right wing shitbags running the country

You're right. It certainly should be austerity focused. With a clear focus on the REAL levels of austerity - instead of the austerity in name only that we've had to date - that would be levelled on Scotland if we ever became Independent. 

[John Lambies Doos]

All the polling is saying is that it's time for the Lib Dems to think of the country for once and stand aside for the Labour Party.

Agree

[John Lambies Doos]

I
It needs to be repeatedly polling at 52-55 I'd say.

As annoying as it is we do have to respect the result and ensure that a clear change has occurred before going again.

Anything else is a massive gamble. I'd still support independence whatever the strategy but I think the process does matter to a large chunk of the electorate.

We haven't agreed in parliament to leave the EU yet. I'd expect some lib Dems/labour plus some high end Scottish members to shift position on independence once BJ passes his deal.

[Highlandmagyar 2nd Tier]

1 hour ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

No tory is a decent person.

If you mean the party, then I agree. If you mean individuals ( I.e the person in the street) I beg to differ.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

If you mean the party, then I agree. If you mean individuals ( I.e the person in the street) I beg to differ.

If you vote for the party then you support its actions and its values, which are far right, xenophobic, damaging to the vulnerable and basically trumpian in their incompetence and morality.