Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[LongTimeLurker]

If you really want to wind him up post something that deviates slightly from the prevailing orthodoxy in mainstream media terms on global warming and see what happens. He's a bit of a zealot, basically.  Not something to lose any sleep over.

[dorlomin]

5 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

If you really want to wind him up post something that deviates slightly from the prevailing orthodoxy in mainstream media terms on global warming

[Donathan]

Brexit party and UKIP will merge post elex, then they'll run for the next GE as if it was a presidential election on a Farage/Robinson ticket, backed by Mercer bucks.

No, they won’t. Farage left UKIP because their current leadership have lurched the party out to the far right ethnic nationalist platform that the BNP used to occupy. Farage himself is SLIGHTLY less gammony than that.

[Loondave1]

Yep, but I reckon Dame Margaret is now entering the Witch Who Cried Wolf far too often, there is a limit to how much the electorate will be genuinely swayed by the stream of anti-Semitic accusations. Labour for their part should be screaming from the rooftops about the child poverty issue.

I think it is overdone now. I can't see anything in the latest revelation that's particularily negative about Corbyn. I had been awaiting this though with recent polling being positive for Labour it's like night follows day. Commie spy Corbyn, Antisemite Corbyn, Terrorist sympathiser Corbyn all getting to be a bit boring. You can smell the fear now the gammon parties threaten to split up the traditional Tory vote. Interesting times ahead.

[tirso]

Unpopular opinion : using words like Gammon and snowflake is a sure fire marker for right dribbling bores.

[Donathan]

13 minutes ago, tirso said:

Unpopular opinion : using words like Gammon and snowflake is a sure fire marker for right dribbling bores.
 

 

^^^ Gammon

[Donathan]

13 minutes ago, tirso said:

Unpopular opinion : using words like Gammon and snowflake is a sure fire marker for right dribbling bores.
 

^^^ Snowflake

[tirso]

 
^^^ Gammon

Can I not be a snowflake as well though

[tirso]

Gammon is superior as it was designed specifically for red faced shouty Phil Mitchells that have sprung up everywhere.
Snowflake is inferior as it was originally used to take the piss out of people talking about their situations as if they were unique (like every snowflake) when they are the kinds of things suffered by everyone and therefore not deserving of much sympathy. The use of it to signify someone who is delicate and melty is not correct.
As with everything in this sphere the leftwing people have wit and imagination, rightwing people just flail about grabbing secondhand content off the internet.

Both are chronic.

[NotThePars]

Snowflakes brought down the Wehrmacht. 

[Sooky]

[Detournement]

I think we have to take any polls on the EU election with a pinch of salt.

The pollsters have no idea what the turnout is going to be. It was 36% in 2014 and the referendum had 72% turnout. It will obviously be somewhere between those two points but anything between 45% and 60% seems possible with different factions having different participation levels.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

MSM need to stop giving that slimy b*****d such an easy ride. It's fucking ridiculous how gets away with so much unchallenged.

[dorlomin]

4 hours ago, Detournement said:

The pollsters have no idea what the turnout is going to be. 

Being a conspiracy pushing thicko you seem to have missed the point that its a regular question on polling surveys. For the one cited you are looking at page 2 with the question 

Quote

And, on a scale of 0 to 10 with 10 meaning definitely would vote and 0 meaning definitely would not vote, how likely would you be to vote in an election to the European Parliament?

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vdqicng3bz/PeoplesVote_190416_EUElections_w.pdf

This is how polling models work. Dont worry, you will not understand what I said and have a seethe about what you imagine I said. 

[Detournement]

Polling models can be wrong and people have a habit of over reporting how likely they are to vote.

https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-resources/why-the-polls-got-it-wrong-and-the-british-election-study-face-to-face-survey-got-it-almost-right/

I understand how polls work. I also remember that they fucked up the last two GEs.

[dorlomin]

24 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Polling models can be wrong

You really are thick. This is statistics. 

Quote

 "All models are wrong, but some are useful"

Jason Box

 

Here is your original point

Quote

The pollsters have no idea what the turnout is going to be. 

There is a gulf between "no idea" and "can be wrong". You changed your position but will not be able to understand this. Polling models are generally good at picking up trends and directions of travel, their problem is turning the data into information. For this discussion they do take data on turn out so have a great deal more than "no idea".  They can and usually do pick up changes in trend for turnout. [your original nonsense claim]. but the models can be wrong in their assumptions about who the changes in turnout affect, i.e which group of voters are discouraged or enthused. 

 

Stick to the conspiracies fruitcake. Its your natural level. 

[Detournement]

So what's the turnout going to be then genius?

 

[dorlomin]

14 minutes ago, Detournement said:

So what's the turnout going to be then genius?

 

Quote

There is a gulf between "no idea" and "can be wrong". You changed your position but will not be able to understand this. Polling models are generally good at picking up trends and directions of travel, their problem is turning the data into information. For this discussion they do take data on turn out so have a great deal more than "no idea".  They can and usually do pick up changes in trend for turnout. [your original nonsense claim]. but the models can be wrong in their assumptions about who the changes in turnout affect, i.e which group of voters are discouraged or enthused. 

 

[Detournement]

I clearly meant no idea in the context of providing an accurate poll. When small changes in turnout can have significant effects on the result it's correct to take projections without error margins with a heavy dose of salt. I actually mentioned differing turnout between different groups but you obviously forgot that by the time you got to the end of your hysterical post.

Take that copy of the Times out your rectum and relax.

[dorlomin]

8 minutes ago, Detournement said:

I clearly meant

 Clowns never know what they meant until the nonsense they actually said is exposed.