Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[Granny Danger]

5 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

I'm so predictable 

I knew you were going to say that!

[glasgow-sheep]

European Parliament Voting Intention:

LAB: 24% (-1)
CON: 16% (-
BXP: 15% (+15)
UKIP: 11% (-16)
LDM: 8% (+1)
GRN: 8% (=)
CHUK: 7% (+7)

Via @YouGov, 10-11 Apr.
Changes w/ 2014.

Projected Seats:

LAB: 25 (+5)
BXP: 13 (+13)
CON: 13 (-6)
UKIP: 9 (-15)
GRN: 4 (+1)
LDM: 3 (+2)
SNP: 2 (=)
PLC: 1 (=)

Changes w/ 2014.

[Tibbermoresaint]

29 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

Gammons looking more likely to vote than FBPE crowd it seems.

Yet projected to lose seats.

[Tibbermoresaint]

7 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

Sure, just seems a shame there isn't a pro EU party getting projected +13, I know the labour/snp/libdem/green ones fit into that category but because they all have policy differences it shows the EU is a single motivating thing for gammons in a way it isn't for pro EU people.

I don't disagree but it seems that the anticipated gammonageddon isn't going to happen.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

European Parliament Voting Intention:

LAB: 24% (-1)
CON: 16% (-
BXP: 15% (+15)
UKIP: 11% (-16)
LDM: 8% (+1)
GRN: 8% (=)
CHUK: 7% (+7)

Via @YouGov, 10-11 Apr.
Changes w/ 2014.

Projected Seats:

LAB: 25 (+5)
BXP: 13 (+13)
CON: 13 (-6)
UKIP: 9 (-15)
GRN: 4 (+1)
LDM: 3 (+2)
SNP: 2 (=)
PLC: 1 (=)

Changes w/ 2014.

If this were the result you can guarantee that the MSM will play this as a Farage triumph even though it would be a fall in real terms in seats for Brexit parties.

[Benjamin_Nevis]

4 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

2 hours ago, glasgow-sheep said:

European Parliament Voting Intention:

LAB: 24% (-1)
CON: 16% (-
BXP: 15% (+15)
UKIP: 11% (-16)
LDM: 8% (+1)
GRN: 8% (=)
CHUK: 7% (+7)

Via @YouGov, 10-11 Apr.
Changes w/ 2014.

Projected Seats:

LAB: 25 (+5)
BXP: 13 (+13)
CON: 13 (-6)
UKIP: 9 (-15)
GRN: 4 (+1)
LDM: 3 (+2)
SNP: 2 (=)
PLC: 1 (=)

Changes w/ 2014.

If this were the result you can guarantee that the MSM will play this as a Farage triumph even though it would be a fall in real terms in seats for Brexit parties.

Be funny as f**k if the Brexit Party gammons win 13 seats, with Nigel Frottage not being among them 

[welshbairn]

10 minutes ago, jupe1407 said:

Be funny as f**k if the Brexit Party gammons win 13 seats, with Nigel Frottage not being among them 

Sadly he'll be number one on the list for his region and I'm sure he'll have chosen the most gammony place to stand.

[dorlomin]

On 11/04/2019 at 20:00, Detournement said:

England and Wales Westminster intention.

No chance of an election soon then.

Cherry picking single polls is the same as lying. No surprise our conspiracy nuts use this technique. 

 

Com Res

 

 

 

BMG

 

YouGov

 

 

 

Other polls this week from the established polling companies. All the others show the two main parties at less than 65% of the vote, not the 78% that Survation has. It also gets one parties name wrong and is missing another that is currently polling at over 5% in most polls. 

Quote

There has been well over 100 polls on the Westminster voting intentions since the 2017 election, almost all have given the tories a slight lead. But the current scale of clusterfuck is likely enough that Labour could reverse the situation. But with Farage's new party and the Change UK thing, it is very likely the least predictable period in the history of scientific polling of the UK electorate. 

And all of this is contingent on models that predate the current party set up. It also assumes the government has the leasure to choose when an election will happen. 

[Detournement]

The Brexit party hadn't even launched when these polls were conducted.

There is also no guarantee that Tinge will stand in every seat and they haven't even produced any policies. Having them at 9% is mental, General Election voting after a long campaign is completely different from picking a name off a list prompted by Com Res.

I can't get the Survation methodology because I don't have Word but they have by far the biggest sample and the best record at recent elections.

[welshbairn]

1 hour ago, dorlomin said:

All the others show the two main parties at less than 65% of the vote, not the 78% that Survation has. It also gets one parties name wrong and is missing another that is currently polling at over 5% in most polls. 

The Survation boss used to work for Farage. Also helped him coin it in on referendum night.

Quote

Survation’s founder, Damian Lyons Lowe, worked as Farage’s pollster and served as a key adviser.

U.K. pollsters have faced calls for inquiries and regulation since Bloomberg reported in June that many had privately worked for hedge funds betting millions on the outcome of the 2016 EU referendum. Survation conducted an exit poll for hedge funds that successfully called the vote--and Farage told Bloomberg earlier this year that Lyons Lowe shared its results with him after the polls closed, but long before official tallies came in. During that time, Farage shocked the world by conceding defeat, and the pound’s value spiked in currency markets before dropping precipitously as the Leave victory became clear.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-06/brexit-pollster-faces-scrutiny-over-secret-political-operations

[Detournement]

Looking at the data for the Comres and Survation polls it seems the difference is that ComRes prompt people by asking if you would support the same party as the last GE and then if the answer is no they rhyme off a list of parties. Survation just ask people who they would vote for. Tinge only had the support of 4/583 of the 18-34 year olds questioned.

Another interesting wrinkle in the big England and Wales Survation poll is that Tory support is 61% male and 39% female and Labour is 54% female and 46% male. Getting younger women out to vote has to be the number one priority for Labour.

And for all the talk of Labour abandoning the traditional working class they miles ahead of the Tories in households with an income under £20,000. 38% to 17% for the Tories (with 29% undecided/prefer not to say).

 

 

 

Edited April 14, 2019 by Detournement

[Detournement]

And you don't even need to look at any polls.

First two stories on the BBC News at 10am on BBC1 both anti Labour = Labour lead.

[doulikefish]

The gammon party will hoover up votes in the traditional labour heartlands,one policy written on the side of bus should do it

[O'Kelly Isley III]

And you don't even need to look at any polls.
First two stories on the BBC News at 10am on BBC1 both anti Labour = Labour lead.

Yep, but I reckon Dame Margaret is now entering the Witch Who Cried Wolf far too often, there is a limit to how much the electorate will be genuinely swayed by the stream of anti-Semitic accusations. Labour for their part should be screaming from the rooftops about the child poverty issue.

[Detournement]

1 minute ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

6 minutes ago, Detournement said:

And you don't even need to look at any polls.
First two stories on the BBC News at 10am on BBC1 both anti Labour = Labour lead.

Yep, but I reckon Dame Margaret is now entering the Witch Who Cried Wolf far too often, there is a limit to how much the electorate will be genuinely swayed by the stream of anti-Semitic accusations. Labour for their part should be screaming from the rooftops about the child poverty issue.

Her daughter is deputy editor at BBC News and she is obviously working with the Sunday Times so this will continue to run.

 

[Detournement]

10 minutes ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

15 minutes ago, Detournement said:

And you don't even need to look at any polls.
First two stories on the BBC News at 10am on BBC1 both anti Labour = Labour lead.

Yep, but I reckon Dame Margaret is now entering the Witch Who Cried Wolf far too often, there is a limit to how much the electorate will be genuinely swayed by the stream of anti-Semitic accusations. Labour for their part should be screaming from the rooftops about the child poverty issue.

100% agree about child poverty.

A lot of people are sick of Brexit and will want to hear about other things.

[Granny Danger]

9 minutes ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

Yep, but I reckon Dame Margaret is now entering the Witch Who Cried Wolf far too often, there is a limit to how much the electorate will be genuinely swayed by the stream of anti-Semitic accusations. Labour for their part should be screaming from the rooftops about the child poverty issue.

Here’s a sad reality, the overwhelming majority of people in the U.K. don’t care too much about anti-Semitism.  

That doesn’t mean they’re anti-Semitic themselves, it simply means that the issue is not high up their agenda.

Between that indifference and  boredom of the subject the electoral impact on Labour will be negligible.

 

[ICTJohnboy]

2 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

I hesitate to green this, but it's essentially true I think. Does not defend antisemitism or make scrutiny invalid, but the commentariat care a great deal more about it than does your average punter.

 

I've greenied him for that post - not just because I agree with his comments, but because it means so much to him.

[Detournement]

40 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

 the commentariat care a great deal more about it than does your average punter.

The commentariat didn't care when Ed Milliband was being slandered for not eating a bacon roll properly or having a father who hated the UK.

Anti semitism is simply the stick they have to beat Corbyn.

[Granny Danger]

I see @dorlominhas resorted to red dots rather than offering an alternate opinion.  Pretty sad when you don’t have a counter argument.