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John Lambies Doos

Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

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1 hour ago, John Lambies Doos said:

 

 


There was a guy on press release tory... on sky news last night peddling this shite. He was basically saying that based on polls tories could win up to 12 seats in Scotland. He then went on to say that if so it would be a massive blow to the independence mandate...
Forgot of course to mention that the SNP would still have 80 fukin % of seats. This is what will be peddled. We will be belittled

 

 

Nor that the mandate was based on the Scottish parliament's vote. If having regionalist MPs meant no mandate, there would have been no referendum in 2014.

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27 minutes ago, Antlion said:

Nor that the mandate was based on the Scottish parliament's vote. If having regionalist MPs meant no mandate, there would have been no referendum in 2014.

They need something to pretend that the mandate doesn't exist, otherwise they would have to admit that May attempting to block any independence referendum, which she is doing, is an outrage and should be decried as such by anyone who gives a solitary shite about democracy.

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There was a guy on press release tory... on sky news last night peddling this shite. He was basically saying that based on polls tories could win up to 12 seats in Scotland. He then went on to say that if so it would be a massive blow to the independence mandate...
Forgot of course to mention that the SNP would still have 80 fukin % of seats. This is what will be peddled. We will be belittled

It would suggest the potential to win a YES victory in a referendum is receding though surely ?

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It would suggest the potential to win a YES victory in a referendum is receding though surely ?



Well based on UKIP effectively pushing and winning a referendum on brexit, surely they should have the majority of Westminster seats.
Guess what... it really doesn't work that way

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I'm no expert but another thing to consider here is the poll may be wrong, crazy I know. Last time most polls underestimated the conservative vote, so most of them changed their methods and so forth. It's possible we're seeing an overcorrection here.

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16 minutes ago, Loondave1 said:


It would suggest the potential to win a YES victory in a referendum is receding though surely ?

Not really, it would just mean that the No vote was coalescing behind a single party instead of being split between two or three.

 

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Not really, it would just mean that the No vote was coalescing behind a single party instead of being split between two or three.
 



I'm sure Curtice will be instructed by his paymasters to bury this line

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1 hour ago, Enigma said:

I'm no expert but another thing to consider here is the poll may be wrong, crazy I know. Last time most polls underestimated the conservative vote, so most of them changed their methods and so forth. It's possible we're seeing an overcorrection here.

I have a feeling that this is what is happening UK wide. If the Conservative's were to win 48% of the vote, as has been projected, that would be on part with Atlee's 1945 landslide.

It's not scientific but we've got a Conservative government who, in the last couple of elections, have struggled to breach the 36% mark but comfortably went into office due to FPTP. Even with a shitty opposition, I really can't see people really motivated to turn out and vote for the out of touch establishment party who have now been in power for seven years and are derided in many different quarters. Add to that the belief that this election is over and there is no prospect of any other outcome than a Conservative majority and I could see them maybe struggling to get the vote out in the way that they did when they pushed the fear of Alex Salmond running the UK through Miliband (who was seen as a very viable PM candidate for years).

I expect them to hold power fairly comfortably but the Lib Dems have shown in recent by elections that they do have some sort of operation in place that could win in marginals so they may hit quite a few seats from the Conservatives and show signs of a revival. If lack of interest and apathy hits the Conservative's by 10% of (current) predictions and that breaks each way to Labour and the Lib Dems; that would suffice in bringing about a hung parliament which could even lead to a Labour led government if the numbers fell in the right place. It's unlikely given everything we've seen from Labour in the last couple of years that they will be able to pull this off but bigger upsets have happened and a good media strategy could do it with a bit of fortune.

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C-L-g_-XYAA1vwy.jpg

First time YouGov has ever had the Tories ahead of Labour in Wales, apparently. Roger Scully said last week that Wales was worth keeping an eye on for the Tories emerging as the largest party, and that the Tories would be helped by the size of the Welsh Leave vote. 

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Does anyone think the council elections will have an impact on the GE? Being so close together, is it likely / possible that a strong showing by the conservatives in Local elections, allied with continued strong polling figures for the GE, could result in a larger and more determined turnout from SNP voters (or any other party for that matter)?
Obviously it could have the opposite affect if the blue rinse brigade fail to show for council elections. Does this argument have any weight?

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42 minutes ago, DrewDon said:

C-L-g_-XYAA1vwy.jpg

First time YouGov has ever had the Tories ahead of Labour in Wales, apparently. Roger Scully said last week that Wales was worth keeping an eye on for the Tories emerging as the largest party, and that the Tories would be helped by the size of the Welsh Leave vote. 

Wouldn't surprise me If there's a lot of leavers voting Tory in Scotland as well. A million people voted leave in Scotland, nearly as many as vote SNP.

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Wouldn't surprise me If there's a lot of leavers voting Tory in Scotland as well. A million people voted leave in Scotland, nearly as many as vote SNP.



Scotland totally different from Wales

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7 hours ago, John Lambies Doos said:

I'm sure Curtice will be instructed by his paymasters to bury this line

 

 

I think that is a wee bit unfair on John Curtice - he seems like an honest observer to me.  Unfortunately the press is only to happy to twist what he says beyond recognition, but if you ignore the hyperbole and read (or listen to) what he actually says, it's usually perfectly reasonable.  

 

I expect we'll be seeing the higher Tory vote share = no mandate line pushed hard in the following weeks by the likes of Andrew Neil and his ilk, though.

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It's all bollocks, MP's in west minister have no power over a scottish referendum, so if the tories win a few more seats which most expect, so what. 

Christ, got a tory leaflet through the door today,they are even campaigning on independence  in the council elections. What the f**k can a a councillor do about that.

Straight in the bin.

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Chat on UK Polling Report that looks like the leave vote is coalescing around the Tories, to the extent labour and even plaid voters are lending their vote to tory to ensure brexit.

Nice that they are content to ignore every other area of policy allowing the tories to run a one issue campaign then do what the f**k they like with public services, workers rights and taxation

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On 2017-4-24 at 22:27, glasgow-sheep said:

Chat on UK Polling Report that looks like the leave vote is coalescing around the Tories, to the extent labour and even plaid voters are lending their vote to tory to ensure brexit.

Nice that they are content to ignore every other area of policy allowing the tories to run a one issue campaign then do what the f**k they like with public services, workers rights and taxation

If the Tories win a whacking majority, push through with a Hard Brexit, move further to the right punishing the most vulnerable in our society and Scotland still votes No at the next referendum then hell mend us.

Our complete Diddy of a Nation would deserve the decades of misery that would follow. 

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If the Tories win a whacking majority, push through with a Hard Brexit, move further to the right punishing the most vulnerable in our society and Scotland still votes No at the next referendum then hell mend us.
Our complete Diddy of a Nation would deserve the decades of misery that would follow. 

This was always happening since the Labour Party imploded in Scotland and veered left in England.If people return a NO at another referendum maybe the SNP need to take a wee look at themselves and the "fanboys" think about their denigration of anyone holding anything other than a 100% YES opinion.I could see this situation coming a mile off.Labour fails and the SNP fail in their big policy for a second time "game over".

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I have a feeling that this is what is happening UK wide. If the Conservative's were to win 48% of the vote, as has been projected, that would be on part with Atlee's 1945 landslide.
It's not scientific but we've got a Conservative government who, in the last couple of elections, have struggled to breach the 36% mark but comfortably went into office due to FPTP. Even with a shitty opposition, I really can't see people really motivated to turn out and vote for the out of touch establishment party who have now been in power for seven years and are derided in many different quarters. Add to that the belief that this election is over and there is no prospect of any other outcome than a Conservative majority and I could see them maybe struggling to get the vote out in the way that they did when they pushed the fear of Alex Salmond running the UK through Miliband (who was seen as a very viable PM candidate for years).
I expect them to hold power fairly comfortably but the Lib Dems have shown in recent by elections that they do have some sort of operation in place that could win in marginals so they may hit quite a few seats from the Conservatives and show signs of a revival. If lack of interest and apathy hits the Conservative's by 10% of (current) predictions and that breaks each way to Labour and the Lib Dems; that would suffice in bringing about a hung parliament which could even lead to a Labour led government if the numbers fell in the right place. It's unlikely given everything we've seen from Labour in the last couple of years that they will be able to pull this off but bigger upsets have happened and a good media strategy could do it with a bit of fortune.

Not sure anyone outside of the labour party right wing saw milliband as a viable pm tbh.

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