Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[ICTChris]

The Lib Dems will place themselves to attack the Tories in the shires, the NIMBY vote. They will probably lose deposits in a lot of the country but can have a significant impact in Tory seats in the South East and West of England.

Edited December 1, 2022 by ICTChris

[Granny Danger]

We need the photos of Starmer and Dianne Abbott to be aired about three months before the next election for maximum electoral impact and a hung Parliament.

[Guest Jedi]

Poll above, though admittedly only a snapshot, suggests that there hasn't been much of a 'Sunak bounce' for the Tories...better than with Truss, wouldn't be hard, but still not really cutting through.

Difficult to see them clawing back much economic 'credibility- over the next 2 years as continued inflation, house prices falling, ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Brexot etc continue to bite.

Once the Tories have lost economic credibility they are done.

[scottsdad]

i reckon this goes beyond the individual issues of credibility and so on. Sometimes the voters just decide it is time for a change and nothing the governing party can do will change that. The Tories saw this in the 90s under Major, and Labour under Brown. People are fairly settled that there will be a new government at the next election, whenever that is.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

We need the photos of Starmer and Corbyn to be aired about three months before the next election for maximum electoral impact and a hung Parliament.

FTFY

[ICTChris]

The Tories are completely fucked IMO. The mini budget is the new Black Wednesday. 

[Granny Danger]

It will be interesting to see how Reform U.K. perform in today’s by-election in Chester.

[Guest Jedi]

4 hours ago, scottsdad said:

i reckon this goes beyond the individual issues of credibility and so on. Sometimes the voters just decide it is time for a change and nothing the governing party can do will change that. The Tories saw this in the 90s under Major, and Labour under Brown. People are fairly settled that there will be a new government at the next election, whenever that is.

Think so. Occasionally there is a wind of change in UK politics, as you say, with Major's govt in the 90s, and Brown's in 2010. Once the die is cast and any government reaches a certain level of unpopularity and incompetence in the public's eyes, it can't claw it back. 

[lichtgilphead]

43 minutes ago, Jedi said:

Think so. Occasionally there is a wind of change in UK politics, as you say, with Major's govt in the 90s, and Brown's in 2010. Once the die is cast and any government reaches a certain level of unpopularity and incompetence in the public's eyes, it can't claw it back. 

As you've recently said yourself, Jedi, you only expect Labour to win the next couple of UK general elections. Even if they do win 3, the Tories will be back in power at some point during the 2030's.. Accordingly, they can and will claw it back. 

When Independence happens, I can't see right-wing parties being in government in Scotland very often, unlike the UK where it happens about two-thirds of the time.

[ICTChris]

3 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

It will be interesting to see how Reform U.K. perform in today’s by-election in Chester.

Brexit Party scored 2.5% in the last election, seems an unlikely target for them. I’ve never been there but it doesn’t seem very Brexity.

The Labour MP for there got turfed out for being a sex pest so I would expect Labour to poll slightly less than you’d expect for a midterm by-election, but they’ll probably still win.

[Granny Danger]

15 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Brexit Party scored 2.5% in the last election, seems an unlikely target for them. I’ve never been there but it doesn’t seem very Brexity.

The Labour MP for there got turfed out for being a sex pest so I would expect Labour to poll slightly less than you’d expect for a midterm by-election, but they’ll probably still win.

I think the ongoing Labour surge will more than compensate for the sex pest aspect.

[BFTD]

Are Farage's lot still being Referred to as REFUK?

I really hope so.

[Granny Danger]

6 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

I think the ongoing Labour surge will more than compensate for the sex pest aspect.

Yip.

https://news.sky.com/story/labour-wins-city-of-chester-by-election-12758562

The Tories are totally fucked, worst result in the seat since 1832 in a by-election caused by a sitting Labour MP following a sex scandal.  Significantly increased majority on a reduced turnout; wee Rishi is getting dumped at the first opportunity.

 

[dorlomin]

The Lib Dems lack of any polling gains is not being talked about, but worth bringing up. Outside of their SW England heartlands they are a dead party. 

[ICTChris]

13 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

It will be interesting to see how Reform U.K. perform in today’s by-election in Chester.

2.7%. Up 0.2% on 2019. The storm is coming!

[Granny Danger]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

2.7%. Up 0.2% on 2019. The storm is coming!

We are living in unusual times.  The rumour that Sunak could be replaced by Johnson if the council elections in May are really bad (and they will be) might seem far fetched but I wouldn’t discount it.

If any such ‘coup’ materialises and fails I could then see an upsurge in support for the likes of Reform UK.

 

[scottsdad]

Sajid Javid is standing down at the next election. There will be loads who walk away between now and polling day.

[btb]

15 minutes ago, scottsdad said:

Sajid Javid is standing down at the next election. There will be loads who walk away between now and polling day.

Noticed that, rats and sinking ships as the saying goes.

[zidane's child]

There will be a few more announcing their decision not to stand over the weekend as they need to notify the party by 5th of Dec.

[Soapy FFC]

3 hours ago, btb said:

Noticed that, rats and sinking ships as the saying goes.

Seems like the type of MP we need, only want's to play when their team is winning.