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Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence


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1 hour ago, Lex said:

 


Love these stories, heard so many of them. Reminds me of the Only An Excuse sketch with the tartan army foot soldier voting no in the privacy of the polling booth. She’s lied to you once before, think she’s telling the truth this time?
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I suspect this poll is Brit Nat propaganda, but interesting none the less.

It's not propaganda - but it's not entirely enlightening either. Ask the public if there should be a referendum in 5 years, they'll say Yes. Wait those 5 years, ask them if there should be a referendum that year and you'll get a No answer.

Same with GEs. People tend not to want to be bothered by politics (it's a particular disease of these isles) or think about it but in the end they'll engage with the issue if it's presented.

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25 minutes ago, renton said:

It's not propaganda - but it's not entirely enlightening either. Ask the public if there should be a referendum in 5 years, they'll say Yes. Wait those 5 years, ask them if there should be a referendum that year and you'll get a No answer.

Same with GEs. People tend not to want to be bothered by politics (it's a particular disease of these isles) or think about it but in the end they'll engage with the issue if it's presented.

Can't recall where but some people on here were previously discussing the idea we would have a referendum on if we wanted to have one. 

From what you've said that sounds like a very hard sell if it were to be the case. 

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7 minutes ago, Albus Bulbasaur said:

Can't recall where but some people on here were previously discussing the idea we would have a referendum on if we wanted to have one. 

From what you've said that sounds like a very hard sell if it were to be the case. 

They've been asking the timing question every year since the referendum. People are always happy to have one '5 years from now' and less happy to have it '2 years from now' regardless of the time elapsed since the original referendum.

Yet the independence question is always framed as 'if a referendum were held tomorrow...' and always shows up different, and usually higher numbers to those who say they are happy to have a referendum in a longer time frame, let alone the more hostile numbers from the 2 year question.

That's besides the point that people keep voting for parties in every election that want to have one.

I always think that asking people about process tends to give weird numbers. No one wants to have to think about it, so are always happy to kick it into the long grass in their heads. Ask someone if they think Boris Johnson should be PM - they might say no - ask them again if they think their should be a GE 'soon' or 'next month' and you'll get a similarly negative response.

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I like the fact that the separatists are all under one banner and the unionists are divided on how to deal with this. SC ruling of legal would only deepen that divide.

Boycott or participate? Do they have numbers to do both? heh. Not likely.

Well played First Minister, well played.🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

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  • 2 months later...

The Lib Dem figures are abject even by their recent standards. That's quite important though because it takes a lot of heat off Tory MPs in the southwest of England, where there are many two-horse races between them.

A model might predict a surprise Labour win there based on 55% of the vote, but neither that vote share or a Labour win in those marginals is going to actually happen. 

If the Tories were barely clinging onto second place in the polls then Truss/Kwarteng would be facing a complete meltdown in their parliamentary party right now.

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Honestly, when was the last time a poll was announced where the Lib Dem share of the vote didn't drop?

Yet somehow they haven't fallen into negative figures or been relegated. Baffling.

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12 hours ago, BFTD said:

Honestly, when was the last time a poll was announced where the Lib Dem share of the vote didn't drop?

Yet somehow they haven't fallen into negative figures or been relegated. Baffling.

Beazer Homes league is where they belong. With Willie Rennie managing in the Fife Juniors.

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48 minutes ago, Donathan said:

New Scottish poll reveals the Tories are set to lose all 6 of their seats at the next general election. The SNP will gain one seat (49 total), Lib Dems will lose one (3 total), whilst Labour will gain six (7 total) 

Source?

BTW does that mean Ian (Fatty) Murray will be seventh choice for Secretary of State/Shadow Secretary of State for Scotland?

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2 minutes ago, Donathan said:

New Scottish poll reveals the Tories are set to lose all 6 of their seats at the next general election. The SNP will gain one seat (49 total), Lib Dems will lose one (3 total), whilst Labour will gain six (7 total) 

Not sure if it was in this thread, but a few days ago the UK-wide polls were claiming that the SNP would be down to thirty-odd seats, with Labour picking up most of the difference. Island-wide, the Tories were supposed to be hitting the kind of numbers that the Lib Dems used to get when they were "popular".

It's hilarious, but we probably shouldn't get too excited. We're still eighteen months away; plenty of time to reassure the Self Interest Society that, no, you're not the targets, it's those scroungers over there.

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Funniest bit about all of this is that amongst Scottish voters Alex Salmond is still the most unpopular politician.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/scottish-tories-heading-for-total-wipeout-as-labour-gains-exclusive-poll-shows-3869122

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7 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

Funniest bit about all of this is that amongst Scottish voters Alex Salmond is still the most unpopular politician.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/scottish-tories-heading-for-total-wipeout-as-labour-gains-exclusive-poll-shows-3869122

Expect to be screeched at by Kenneth during his Friday night slice of family computer time.

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1 hour ago, BFTD said:

Expect to be screeched at by Kenneth during his Friday night slice of family computer time.

This was the other funny bit.  I know it’s never going to happen but a combination of the U.K. wide poll and the Scottish poll gives the result shown below where the Tories are annihilated and the SNP would be the official opposition!

E25A7326-A1AA-4B18-BCC6-0023AFAA86F2.thumb.png.f83224031cf1b426ec76489fcf22b64c.png

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3 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

This was the other funny bit.  I know it’s never going to happen but a combination of the U.K. wide poll and the Scottish poll gives the result shown below where the Tories are annihilated and the SNP would be the official opposition!

E25A7326-A1AA-4B18-BCC6-0023AFAA86F2.thumb.png.f83224031cf1b426ec76489fcf22b64c.png

I can't even fathom what the Commons would be like with that make-up.

Considering Boris and Rees-Mogg set a precedent for disrespect for the opposition and parliament in general, presumably it'd be virtually empty for the most part, with Starmer occasionally rocking up in his pants and robe.

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