Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[John Lambies Doos]

John Curtis saying that Galloway took a load of bigot votes off the Tories.

Welcome back

[welshbairn]

1 minute ago, John Lambies Doos said:

On 02/07/2021 at 09:07, welshbairn said:

John Curtis saying that Galloway took a load of bigot votes off the Tories.

Welcome back

Thanks. I think we have a £10 bet to settle?

[NotThePars]

43 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Thanks. I think we have a £10 bet to settle?

Haven't you got the Sturgeon bet to claim aanw

[welshbairn]

58 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

Haven't you got the Sturgeon bet to claim aanw

Honourably paid up the day I returned, to the mad wullie fund. I'd forgotten all about that one! @The Ghost of B A R P, a gentleman.

Edited July 4, 2021 by welshbairn

[John Lambies Doos]

Thanks. I think we have a £10 bet to settle?

What is bet again? Do I owe u or do you owe me?

[welshbairn]

2 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

23 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Thanks. I think we have a £10 bet to settle?

What is bet again? Do I owe u or do you owe me?

You bet £10 I wouldn't be able to stay off P+B for a month, unless I'm getting mixed up with someone else?

[John Lambies Doos]

You bet £10 I wouldn't be able to stay off P+B for a month, unless I'm getting mixed up with someone else?

Ah, probably did... no probs? Charity bet? Or was it personal bet?

[welshbairn]

16 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

20 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

You bet £10 I wouldn't be able to stay off P+B for a month, unless I'm getting mixed up with someone else?

Ah, probably did... no probs? Charity bet? Or was it personal bet?

Here's Madwullie's charity, you'll nearly tip it over 4 grand..

https://www.justgiving.com/fundraising/woody-willowfoundation

[John Lambies Doos]

Here's Madwullie's charity, you'll nearly tip it over 4 grand..
https://www.justgiving.com/fundraising/woody-willowfoundation

There you go bud... Great cause[emoji106], will be listed as John Lambies Doos on site

[Lex]

‘When Brexit happens and Bojo is PM Yes will surge ahead in the polls’
Seems like the opposite is happening.

[Wee Bully]

24 minutes ago, Lex said:

‘When Brexit happens and Bojo is PM Yes will surge ahead in the polls’
Seems like the opposite is happening.

You know there are no new polls in there?

[Lex]

You know there are no new polls in there?

Yes.

[Granny Danger]

2 hours ago, Wee Bully said:

You know there are no new polls in there?

I do not doubt the data, however I found it strange the noted the change compared to a very random date.  It’s almost as if they were deliberately trying to influence the interpretation.

[O'Kelly Isley III]

5 hours ago, Lex said:

‘When Brexit happens and Bojo is PM Yes will surge ahead in the polls’
Seems like the opposite is happening.

For now, yes.  But Johnson is a wartime leader, the war in this case being Covid-19, and once the electorate realises just how grim the post-war situation is with the effects of Brexit no longer being submerged, that could very quickly indeed alter the Scottish situation.  I wouldn't start rejoicing too prematurely my friend.

[SANTAN]

13 hours ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

For now, yes.  But Johnson is a wartime leader, the war in this case being Covid-19, and once the electorate realises just how grim the post-war situation is with the effects of Brexit no longer being submerged, that could very quickly indeed alter the Scottish situation.  I wouldn't start rejoicing too prematurely my friend.

Nonsense. Bojo is anything but a wartime leader. He has been absolutley hopeless and has the whole nation thinking he's an idiot in one way or another. He is a delegator, not someone to make quick decisions or bear the brunt of them.

Also Bojo's popularity means nothing in relation to breaking up the Union, there just isn't the support for it, never has been or never will be as long as you guys keep waiting on people to "realise". We've heard all of that before and amazingly enough the Tory of the day has little to no impact on whether people want Scotland to leave the UK or not. 

Edited August 4, 2021 by SANTAN

[Dawson Park Boy]

2 minutes ago, SANTAN said:

Nonsense. Bojo is anything but a wartime leader. He has been absolutley hopeless and has the whole nation thinking he's an idiot in one way or another. 

Also Bojo's popularity means nothing in relation to breaking up the Union, there just isn't the support for it, never has been or never will be as long as you guys keep waiting on people to "realise". We've heard all of that before and amazingly enough the Tory of the day has little to no impact on whether people want Scotland to leave the UK or not. 

Agreed.

When are they going to answer the big questions?

Currency

Hard border

Financial forecasts - Growth Commission

Austerity for 10years - taxation - who pays

Higher tax or cutting services?

Never a proper answer.

[renton]

23 minutes ago, SANTAN said:

Nonsense. Bojo is anything but a wartime leader. He has been absolutley hopeless and has the whole nation thinking he's an idiot in one way or another. He is a delegator, not someone to make quick decisions or bear the brunt of them.

Also Bojo's popularity means nothing in relation to breaking up the Union, there just isn't the support for it, never has been or never will be as long as you guys keep waiting on people to "realise". We've heard all of that before and amazingly enough the Tory of the day has little to no impact on whether people want Scotland to leave the UK or not. 

This isn't entirely true as the graph helpfully demonstrates.

It's perfectly possible to get a lead for Yes. Right now you have probably two equal sized chunks of the population who have made their minds up either way, and a middle age, middle class swing vote who are changeable.

I agree that 'the Tory of the day' doesn't make a difference, c***s are c***s after all.

It should be noted that Indy is not a subject that is well mixed down the age groups, demographically the Union is the fixed preference of the old and very old by landslides, and Indy has smaller leads across all other age groups. This isn't some hoary cliche about folk becoming more Conservative as they get older but rather a generational divide.

So for Indy to win it has several options.

1) Demographic churn. Simply put the older Unionists dying off are not being replaced in similar numbers further down the age groups. This inevitably puts pressure on the Unionist position, albeit not enough for Yes to win outright on its own.

2) The UK has several more fits on insanity: the Yes lead recorded in January 2021 and onwards could be attributed to the inept handing of Covid through that period. As I wrote previously, Yes votes recorded in 2016 immediately after the Brexit vote and through the early months of this year are not so much the swing vote running towards Scotland but away from the UK. The swing back may be a combination of the Salmond inquiry, a Holyrood GE where inevitably the only people talking about an IndyRef were the Tories and the vaccine roll out which actually worked.

There is a negative way of getting Yes leads then. Just wait for the UK to revert to it's 21st C norm of being a shit tip basket case.

3) Campaign hard on that swing vote. The "neoliberal" growth commission was nakedly aimed at middle class sensibilities about savings, pensions etc... rather than the more radical non growth solutions many on the left (myself included) would prefer. If you can hold the left flank together and campaign hard on the middle class then you have a shot.

People hate the Tories but it's rather normalised. Doesn't mean however that there is no pathway to a Yes vote.

 

[SANTAN]

7 minutes ago, renton said:

This isn't entirely true as the graph helpfully demonstrates.

It's perfectly possible to get a lead for Yes. Right now you have probably two equal sized chunks of the population who have made their minds up either way, and a middle age, middle class swing vote who are changeable.

I agree that 'the Tory of the day' doesn't make a difference, c***s are c***s after all.

It should be noted that Indy is not a subject that is well mixed down the age groups, demographically the Union is the fixed preference of the old and very old by landslides, and Indy has smaller leads across all other age groups. This isn't some hoary cliche about folk becoming more Conservative as they get older but rather a generational divide.

So for Indy to win it has several options.

1) Demographic churn. Simply put the older Unionists dying off are not being replaced in similar numbers further down the age groups. This inevitably puts pressure on the Unionist position, albeit not enough for Yes to win outright on its own.

2) The UK has several more fits on insanity: the Yes lead recorded in January 2021 and onwards could be attributed to the inept handing of Covid through that period. As I wrote previously, Yes votes recorded in 2016 immediately after the Brexit vote and through the early months of this year are not so much the swing vote running towards Scotland but away from the UK. The swing back may be a combination of the Salmond inquiry, a Holyrood GE where inevitably the only people talking about an IndyRef were the Tories and the vaccine roll out which actually worked.

There is a negative way of getting Yes leads then. Just wait for the UK to revert to it's 21st C norm of being a shit tip basket case.

3) Campaign hard on that swing vote. The "neoliberal" growth commission was nakedly aimed at middle class sensibilities about savings, pensions etc... rather than the more radical non growth solutions many on the left (myself included) would prefer. If you can hold the left flank together and campaign hard on the middle class then you have a shot.

People hate the Tories but it's rather normalised. Doesn't mean however that there is no pathway to a Yes vote.

 

Of course which is why I had said theyll never do so whilst they continue such tactics of waiting for people to "realise" how bad the Tories are...not that the party is doing so in itself more that that's how a lot of YesDas view it. Some of them you'll see here regularly talking about the inevitability of Indy all whilst getting worked up about the Tory of the day and how much that will do for their cause. 

I mean it's possible Indy wins but I can't see it. Going by your number 1 outlook when do you think that would be. I don't buy into the argument at all, with an aging population it doesn't matter how many old Unionists die if younger people convert to Unionism the older they get. 

[Dawson Park Boy]

56 minutes ago, renton said:

This isn't entirely true as the graph helpfully demonstrates.

It's perfectly possible to get a lead for Yes. Right now you have probably two equal sized chunks of the population who have made their minds up either way, and a middle age, middle class swing vote who are changeable.

I agree that 'the Tory of the day' doesn't make a difference, c***s are c***s after all.

It should be noted that Indy is not a subject that is well mixed down the age groups, demographically the Union is the fixed preference of the old and very old by landslides, and Indy has smaller leads across all other age groups. This isn't some hoary cliche about folk becoming more Conservative as they get older but rather a generational divide.

So for Indy to win it has several options.

1) Demographic churn. Simply put the older Unionists dying off are not being replaced in similar numbers further down the age groups. This inevitably puts pressure on the Unionist position, albeit not enough for Yes to win outright on its own.

2) The UK has several more fits on insanity: the Yes lead recorded in January 2021 and onwards could be attributed to the inept handing of Covid through that period. As I wrote previously, Yes votes recorded in 2016 immediately after the Brexit vote and through the early months of this year are not so much the swing vote running towards Scotland but away from the UK. The swing back may be a combination of the Salmond inquiry, a Holyrood GE where inevitably the only people talking about an IndyRef were the Tories and the vaccine roll out which actually worked.

There is a negative way of getting Yes leads then. Just wait for the UK to revert to it's 21st C norm of being a shit tip basket case.

3) Campaign hard on that swing vote. The "neoliberal" growth commission was nakedly aimed at middle class sensibilities about savings, pensions etc... rather than the more radical non growth solutions many on the left (myself included) would prefer. If you can hold the left flank together and campaign hard on the middle class then you have a shot.

People hate the Tories but it's rather normalised. Doesn't

mean however that there is no pathway to a Yes vote.

 

You state people hate the Tories but that’s not quite true and is likely to change even more.

Witness the situation in the Midlands and North of England where the Tories smashed Labour to pieces.

Labour, Liberals and SNP have all adopted ‘woke ‘policies which socially conservative traditional working class people don’t like.

Coupled with increasing labour rates for working and middle class workers due to labour shortages, the Tories could well be on the right track. 

[renton]

14 minutes ago, Dawson Park Boy said:

You state people hate the Tories but that’s not quite true and is likely to change even more.

Witness the situation in the Midlands and North of England where the Tories smashed Labour to pieces.

Labour, Liberals and SNP have all adopted ‘woke ‘policies which socially conservative traditional working class people don’t like.

Coupled with increasing labour rates for working and middle class workers due to labour shortages, the Tories could well be on the right track. 

I'm not sure social conservatism has much to do with it. The shift in the North of England was due to Brexit and perceived injustices around immigration and jobs - which is hardly a new tune, is it?

Yet attitudes to the EU are vastly different in Scotland, and perceptions of who gets blamed for social ills is also different.

Meanwhile, 'people get more conservative as they get older' is a hoary old cliche, especially as applied to 'social conservatism' - Well adjusted social liberals don't suddenly turn into homophobic bigots when they clock in over 40 years old. In fact it's more that the generations coming up after them have, at least over the previous half century been more Liberal than the preceding generation. Your views didn't change, its just that today's radical bleeding edge is tomorrow's established wisdom.

Take a hard line social conservative from today, and compare to someone who describes themselves that way 50 years ago and I bet the earlier generation of social conservative would scold the younger for his liberalism.