Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[renton]

8 minutes ago, Stormzy said:

Ach well, it was one of the main points i would make regularly and faced a lot of criticism for doing so when I first started posting in this section. Earned me minus 2000 red dots too. It appears going by the break in trend over the past few weeks that I was correct though. That's only during an election campaign too, I think it would be even worse if there was a referendum anywhere in the near future.

The Salmond stuff is surely a factor, I've not seen anything from him since the Alba launch tbf though, I'm not sure where he's getting publicity from, it's not very visible. 

It wouldn't be the same if only because both sides would be campaigning on the issue in a way they aren't just now.

Up until now, the Indy question has been a case of Yes chewing up massive No leads until we've gotten to the point that the nation is basically 50/50, and No's base is largely sustained by the geriatric population. Some polls will find weird leads for both sides, and there was definitely a Yes lead through much of 2020 that has now fallen back.

That isn't Brexit related, but more to do with the fact the swing vote for Indy are basically middle class professionals who are so far less about running towards Scotland but more running away from the UK whenever things look like turning to shite, which for much of 2020 due to Covid, it did. 

Luckily for Yes, the UK regularly turns to shite so if they got lucky with timing they almost certainly could win a vote.

However, I'd be more inclined to let demographic churn work in Yes' favour. I wouldn't be looking at holding the referendum much before the final year of this parliament to come, so late 2025.

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

16 minutes ago, Lex said:

Not that it matters, there won’t be another legally binding independence referendum.

Not in the next year or so, I think that's certain. 

There will be in the next 5 to 10 years though.

[SandyCromarty]

1 hour ago, betting competition said:

 

As I pointed out before, the nearer we get to election day the more polls and crazy anti SNP/Independence print media headlines we will see like this.

It gives a false dawn for the unionists.

 

[SANTAN]

[DMCs]

1 minute ago, SandyCromarty said:

As I pointed out before, the nearer we get to election day the more polls and crazy anti SNP/Independence print media headlines we will see like this.

It gives a false dawn for the unionists.

They aren't rigged polls pal. You sound like Trump.

Maybe it's an outlier in terms of 42% Yes being a relatively low figure but there does seem to be a trend away from Yes recently. 

Edited April 29, 2021 by DMCs

[Suspect Device]

9 minutes ago, DMCs said:

They aren't rigged polls pal. You sound like Trump.

Maybe it's an outlier in terms of 42% Yes being a relatively low figure but there does seem to be a trend away from Yes recently. 

 

You can't know that they're not rigged in the same way as he can't know that they are rigged. All I'd say is it's not in the pollsters interests to be so utterly wrong that it gets noticed and they lose their credibility as pollsters and, eventually, their revenue as people no longer see them as accurate.

The only way we will know is after the actual election. 

[TheScarf]

21 hours ago, GordonS said:

 

I loved it when Ross Greer pointed out the harsh realities about Churchill to the flag-shaggers. The hypocritical fkers bang on about cancel culture but want to cancel chunks of history, because it doesn't accord with their prejudices. They need to believe in a version of Britain that's a lie and a sham. He stuck the truth in their faces and didn't give a damn how much it annoyed them. Delicious.

I wonder if that's the only thing you've ever heard about Ross Greer though, because our media just don't report the serious stuff. He's been excellent on education over the past year, holding SG to account on their pathetic mismanagement of school exams. Without the Greens we might have been stuck with that halfwitted algorithm last year, and Greer led for them on that.

The best part of Greer's interview with Morgan was right at the end when Morgan said 'Churchill won us World War 2!!!!!!1111!'

Greer, without even blinking replied ' No Piers, the servicemen and women won the war, then when they returned home they voted Churchill out'.  Then Morgan ended the interview.  Was superb viewing tbf.

[John Lambies Doos]

The best part of Greer's interview with Morgan was right at the end when Morgan said 'Churchill won us World War 2!!!!!!1111!'
Greer, without even blinking replied ' No Piers, the servicemen and women won the war, then when they returned home they voted Churchill out'.  Then Morgan ended the interview.  Was superb viewing tbf.

Here's me thinking it was Russia.

[LongTimeLurker]

Until Yes is consistently 60%+ between elections a referendum is no sure victory for the Yes side. This issue will probably drag on for another generation before there is resolution. The sensible thing for the SNP to do would be to play the long game and wait for the older generation to depart the scene but they can't as most of their supporters are not rational. Arguably pushing too hard too quickly could result in the Quebec scenario of a compromise Devomax type party emerging and taking control instead because people get sick of the whole thing. Doubt it though as the post-Brexit UK is more of a push factor than ongoing Canadian federalism under NAFTA.

[renton]

5 minutes ago, Suspect Device said:

 

You can't know that they're not rigged in the same way as he can't know that they are rigged. All I'd say is it's not in the pollsters interests to be so utterly wrong that it gets noticed and they lose their credibility as pollsters and, eventually, their revenue as people no longer see them as accurate.

The only way we will know is after the actual election. 

The polls aren't rigged, of course they aren't. However, all of them have "house effects" that can subtly change the outcome. For example, Panelbase alone seems to find a large Alba vote. ComRes has an unusually large constituency Green vote - which on a uniform swing would see Harvie winning Kelvinside narrowly (not sure that passes a smell test).

Depending on how you weight the responses: if you had to upweight a demographic because the panel didn't have enough of those people means smaller changes within that cohort would have an outsized impact on headline numbers (see for example YG's decision to split 2010Lab-2011SNP voters from 2010SNP-2011SNP voters in their indy polls up to 2014)

How their turnout filters are worked will also have an effect.

Will be interesting to see a Survation or YG poll before Thursday. Right now those two tend to show higher SNP constituency votes, and PB and ComRes lower around 45. 

[DMCs]

12 minutes ago, Suspect Device said:

You can't know that they're not rigged in the same way

Yeah I can.

[Gordon EF]

12 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

 The sensible thing for the SNP to do would be to play the long game and wait for the older generation to depart the scene but they can't as most of their supporters are not rational. 

The irrational beetroot face feet-stompers are a minority and a good chunk of them have defected to Alba. I think most independence supporters are pretty calm about not pulling the trigger on UDI on May 7th and demanding Sturgeon is kicked out for being a traitor or whatever it is they want.

Edited April 29, 2021 by Gordon EF

[vikingTON]

14 hours ago, Baxter Parp said:

I said Westminster and the media and I said they would use the lack of an SNP majority as an excuse.  If you can't make your argument without twisting my words and "making stuff up" you can f**k off.

The media has used lots of things as an excuse for SNP bad material since 2007, and yet they have won every single election and it hasn't even been fucking close for ten years. So why are you wetting your frilly knickers now about what the media will say about a mandate for independence?

The onus is on the Yes side to point out the perfectly straightforward facts: a quick symbolic vote at Holyrood would indeed confirm if the support for independence there is larger or smaller than before. 

Quote

 

So when should they have called it?  Before Brexit?  After Brexit?  When the S30 was turned down? During the second wave?  During the first? Not one of you supermajority geeks has an answer.

What should they have done?  Have a go at explaining your thinking.

 

Oh dear, so now it's the pandemic's fault that the SG didn't push through a vote in the current Parliament. Yet five minutes ago, you were claiming that the lack of an SNP majority prevented  the SG from doing so since 2016.

So which is it? Did the big bad Greens taking those list seats prevent the SG from pushing forward with a referendum, or was it down to tactical considerations?

If the latter, then an SNP majority in this election makes literally f**k all difference!

Quote

Alex's Alba Party is definitely a creep magnet. 

'Creeps' who were serving in an SNP government or standing on the SNP list five minutes ago: I'm really not sure that's the slam-dunk you were going for then.

I wonder if they'll save space for the SNP chief executive's Father Ted Crilly approach to book-keeping as well. 

Quote

"Single party rule" at a Parliament that hasn't had any party in a majority for the past five years.  Are you Baron Foulkes of Cumnock in disguise?

The SNP's both votes mantra is all about restoring single party rule champ: even of that lets another 10 Yoons into Parliament as a result. And it's been nothing short of an abysmal campaign so far.

Edited April 29, 2021 by vikingTON

[John Lambies Doos]

I've said it before and I will say it again, never underestimate the shitbaggery of the Scottish nation when push comes to shove.

[vikingTON]

7 minutes ago, Pato said:

Sturgeon appeared to be a voice of calm, reason and comfort in the bad times last year so the yes vote rocketed up, now the threat is receding and the vaccine rollout (which the UK government does deserve praise for) is putting us very close to Israel levels of immunity, it's dropping.

The weakness of that subset of the population that switch between yes and no is it's largely driven by events that aren't really in control of any one political faction. The SNP didn't *do* anything to earn those big numbers last year, it was just people who get their news off the telly seeing Sturgeon talk more than usual and deciding she maybe wasn't a demon after all.

Then it's complete and utter folly for Sturgeon and her gormless strategists to wait until the polls hit a mythical 60% rock-solid support.

It's long past shite or get off the pot time with this. If Sturgeon and other SNP leaders do not want the terrible gamble of a second vote then they should be running for a 'more powers to Holyrood' mandate. You cannot play the long game indefinitely while also demanding a referendum since 2016. 

[GordonS]

59 minutes ago, TheScarf said:

The best part of Greer's interview with Morgan was right at the end when Morgan said 'Churchill won us World War 2!!!!!!1111!'

Greer, without even blinking replied ' No Piers, the servicemen and women won the war, then when they returned home they voted Churchill out'.  Then Morgan ended the interview.  Was superb viewing tbf.

It's a really important point for the statue botherers to understand - the people of Britain couldn't have booted Churchill out harder or faster after WW2, it was the largest swing against a Conservative government since 1800. The Tories campaigned on his popularity and got a shock as Britain said "thanks for that, but you're not the guy for what comes next".

[SANTAN]

4 minutes ago, GordonS said:

It's a really important point for the statue botherers to understand - the people of Britain couldn't have booted Churchill out harder or faster after WW2, it was the largest swing against a Conservative government since 1800. The Tories campaigned on his popularity and got a shock as Britain said "thanks for that, but you're not the guy for what comes next".

Completely off topic but why would that be important to understand when most people that seemingly like Churchill praise him for his war time leadership not his political success? 

[NotThePars]

I used to be harsh on Churchill but I'm reading Losurdo's book on Stalin and he's already quoted Churchill as saying "I like that man [Stalin]", compared him to Peter the Great and been effusive in saying "I have great admiration and respect for the courageous Russian people and for my war time companion, marshal Stalin."

Based Winston.

[Eddie Hitler]

1 hour ago, virginton said:

Then it's complete and utter folly for Sturgeon and her gormless strategists to wait until the polls hit a mythical 60% rock-solid support.

It's long past shite or get off the pot time with this. If Sturgeon and other SNP leaders do not want the terrible gamble of a second vote then they should be running for a 'more powers to Holyrood' mandate. You cannot play the long game indefinitely while also demanding a referendum since 2016. 

I think this is right, tbh. If there is in fact no 'event-based' trigger (as Brexit was) that would be enough to make the SNP 'go', then their manifestos should state that they will seek a referendum (or whatever other means they deem fit to ascertain Scotland wants independence) in the event that there is evidence of sustained support and make no other pledges within it.

Otherwise it looks very much like they know they need to appear to keep the issue forefront or lose votes.

As you say, if they want to concentrate on 'more powers devolved' for the foreseeable, with the caveat that they move if support is shown to be there, then that is a perfectly honourable and valid position and certainly moreso than going into each election winking at some people that 'it's just round the corner' but building in excuses by using as vague ('Vow-like'?) language as you can get away with.

[SandyCromarty]

1 hour ago, TheScarf said:

The best part of Greer's interview with Morgan was right at the end when Morgan said 'Churchill won us World War 2!!!!!!1111!'

Greer, without even blinking replied ' No Piers, the servicemen and women won the war, then when they returned home they voted Churchill out'.  Then Morgan ended the interview.  Was superb viewing tbf.

Back in 2019 when Greer got attacked by Morgan for stating that Churchill was a white supremacist I was surprised that Greer didn't mention Churchill's defeat in the 1945 GE Labour landslide, so I e-mailed Greer on it but he never got back to me on it.

So I'm pleased to see that he finally used it on his latest attack from Morgan, sadly I missed it.