invergowrie arab Posted April 8, 2021 Share Posted April 8, 2021 9 hours ago, Merkie84 said: How do we think turnout will be in the day? Will covid affect it and therefore the final results? I think this is an unknown which is making me not quite trust the polls more than I usually don't quite trust them. In P&K we had a by-election 2 weeks ago which had a 45% turnout for a foregone conclusion. That's pretty tasty for an LA by-election in any circumstances. 66% of voters in the area now have postal votes as opposed to less than 20% in 2015. Postal Votes tend to have a turnout of around 80% as opposed to 50-60% for in person voting. So, in theory you might actually see turnout up. My optimist sides says the Tories are depressed. This is not Ruth Davidson's 2016 campaign, this is not the existential crisis of 2014. In PKC in 2017 Local Govt elections the SNP baiscally got the same votes as 2011 but the Tories doubled theirs and won the council. I can see their support staying at home. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pandarilla Posted April 9, 2021 Share Posted April 9, 2021 I think this is an unknown which is making me not quite trust the polls more than I usually don't quite trust them. In P&K we had a by-election 2 weeks ago which had a 45% turnout for a foregone conclusion. That's pretty tasty for an LA by-election in any circumstances. 66% of voters in the area now have postal votes as opposed to less than 20% in 2015. Postal Votes tend to have a turnout of around 80% as opposed to 50-60% for in person voting. So, in theory you might actually see turnout up. My optimist sides says the Tories are depressed. This is not Ruth Davidson's 2016 campaign, this is not the existential crisis of 2014. In PKC in 2017 Local Govt elections the SNP baiscally got the same votes as 2011 but the Tories doubled theirs and won the council. I can see their support staying at home. Your first sentence is bang on, and anyone making bold statements of certainty based on polling is a bit of a numpty. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BFTD Posted April 9, 2021 Share Posted April 9, 2021 On 08/04/2021 at 22:05, gmca said: Wouldn't work. I stay in Stirling, so need something that might stand out a bit. Assumed it must be the Raploch for a second, until I remembered the locals stole all the trees. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highland Capital Posted April 11, 2021 Share Posted April 11, 2021 It’ll be interesting to see if Prince Philip’s death will influence the polls. If it does I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s the Tories who take the hit. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 4 hours ago, Highland Capital said: It’ll be interesting to see if Prince Philip’s death will influence the polls. If it does I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s the Tories who take the hit. Why do you think that? Hope I'm wrong but I'm inclined to think the Tories might see an upsurge in support, what with the upcoming funeral and general sympathy directed towards the royals, thanks mainly to our ever impartial and always balanced MSM. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highland Capital Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 6 hours ago, ICTJohnboy said: Why do you think that? Hope I'm wrong but I'm inclined to think the Tories might see an upsurge in support, what with the upcoming funeral and general sympathy directed towards the royals, thanks mainly to our ever impartial and always balanced MSM. I think it's possible some people might look at the royals, the coverage of this and then look at the Tories as the main British establishment party and think 'had enough of this'. The viewing figures on Friday on BBC and ITV plummeted, so I'm not sure the media's outpouring of grief is representative of the public as a whole, especially in Scotland. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted April 12, 2021 Author Share Posted April 12, 2021 Won't make a jot of a difference 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dawson Park Boy Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 16 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said: Won't make a jot of a difference Yes, I think that’s correct. Im a unionist but not a great royalist but the media have gone completely over the top on this. My wife, very royalist, was furious at missing the final of Masterchef on Friday. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted April 12, 2021 Share Posted April 12, 2021 5 minutes ago, Dawson Park Boy said: Yes, I think that’s correct. Im a unionist but not a great royalist but the media have gone completely over the top on this. My wife, very royalist, was furious at missing the final of Masterchef on Friday. That last sentence pretty much sums up the vast majority of the UK electorate. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting competition Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 Panelbase seem to be different than everyone else 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted April 14, 2021 Author Share Posted April 14, 2021 Panelbase seem to be different than everyone else The chooky effect [emoji1787] 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
betting competition Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 Here is the seats predictions: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 Yeah, there seems like a house effect regarding Alba in Panelbase. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, betting competition said: Panelbase seem to be different than everyone else Remember, Panelbase prompt for Alba (and name Alex Salmond when they do) and for AFU. I don't think the others do. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted April 14, 2021 Author Share Posted April 14, 2021 Maybe the country doesn't want another divisive referendum? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingRocketman II Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 On 12/04/2021 at 15:34, Dawson Park Boy said: Yes, I think that’s correct. Im a unionist but not a great royalist but the media have gone completely over the top on this. My wife, very royalist, was furious at missing the final of Masterchef on Friday. that so soon coming after her anger at women acting as pundits on men's football; can't be easy for her just now. Thoughts and prayers etc 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glasgow-sheep Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 Who are Believe In Scotland? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 Panelbase seem to be different than everyone else Panelbase including the Greens on the constituency is skewing their polls.The Greens are only standing in a handful of seats. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dawson Park Boy Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 27 minutes ago, KingRocketman II said: that so soon coming after her anger at women acting as pundits on men's football; can't be easy for her just now. Thoughts and prayers etc Thanks for that. My wife’s not someone to tangle with! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted April 14, 2021 Share Posted April 14, 2021 2 hours ago, betting competition said: Panelbase seem to be different than everyone else The Greens can't get 4% of the vote in the constituency vote? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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