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Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence


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What the poliing is now showing is that any swing in SNP list votes to either the Greens or Alba will have an exponential increase in potential size of Pro-Indy majority. 

Greens and Alba with 14% of the projected list vote would be predicted to take 14 seats. SNP with 39% of the list vote, predicted to take 1 list seat. If half that remaining 39% SNP vote were to swing to either of these the pro indy majority could be absolutely huge.

Also, the Greens are at 2% on Constituency and Alba not standing, there is literally no risk to the 69 seats projected to go to the SNP on the constituency from either of these 2 parties..

 

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1 hour ago, Double Jack D said:

What the poliing is now showing is that any swing in SNP list votes to either the Greens or Alba will have an exponential increase in potential size of Pro-Indy majority. 

Greens and Alba with 14% of the projected list vote would be predicted to take 14 seats. SNP with 39% of the list vote, predicted to take 1 list seat. If half that remaining 39% SNP vote were to swing to either of these the pro indy majority could be absolutely huge.

Also, the Greens are at 2% on Constituency and Alba not standing, there is literally no risk to the 69 seats projected to go to the SNP on the constituency from either of these 2 parties..

 

Alba winning seats may increase representation at Holyrood but will not make getting a second referendum or successful outcome in said referendum any easier.  The idea that Salmond will work constructively with Sturgeon is, to say the least, far fetched.

My list vote will be going to the Greens.

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47 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Alba winning seats may increase representation at Holyrood but will not make getting a second referendum or successful outcome in said referendum any easier.  The idea that Salmond will work constructively with Sturgeon is, to say the least, far fetched.

My list vote will be going to the Greens.

Totally agree with everything apart from the getting a second referendum bit. A both votes SNP strategy risks not delivering a pro indy majority so the more 2nd votes that go to the Greens or Alba the better to secure that. The successful outcome of the second indyref is by no means certain regardless of Holyrood make up after May 6th.

As with the Greens, there will be things Alba will oppose SNP on. I'm not sure that's a bad thing.

I think I'm currently with the Greens on my second vote, not 100% there but they're the clear front runner. It may change to Alba depending on the next few weeks. I will definitely not be wasting it on SNP.

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58 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Alba winning seats may increase representation at Holyrood but will not make getting a second referendum or successful outcome in said referendum any easier.  The idea that Salmond will work constructively with Sturgeon is, to say the least, far fetched.

My list vote will be going to the Greens.

Be careful with these polls, I saw the tory rag the  ST one where the SNP had a clear majority, the Greens and Alba picked up a lot of seats and most significantly it showed the tories losing 7 seats, overall the poll showed a massive swing to Independence parties.

However this could well  be old fashioned 'Doublespeak' to put frighteners on the tory/unionist voters to get out and vote to put the Independence hordes back in their place.

False polls have been used before especially nearer.the election day so don't get too carried away with polls in the tory press.

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Yes I know but getting infastructure set up for eventual trade routes after independence coud counter Westminsters guards at Berwick, paperwork nightmares etc..etc..
Could you explain how ScotGov could set up the infrastructure for a reserved matter before independence?
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10 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said:
4 hours ago, dirty dingus said:
Yes I know but getting infastructure set up for eventual trade routes after independence coud counter Westminsters guards at Berwick, paperwork nightmares etc..etc..

Could you explain how ScotGov could set up the infrastructure for a reserved matter before independence?

Transport is not reserved.

The Scottish Government runs the country in relation to matters that are devolved from Westminster. This includes: the economy, education, health, justice, rural affairs, housing, environment, equal opportunities, consumer advocacy and advice, transport and taxation

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13 minutes ago, Highland Capital said:

Does anyone actually know any of Alba's policies yet apart from independence?

1. Get Salmond elected.

2. Compulsory sleepy cuddles.

3. Err, that’s it....

 

 

 

Seriously, I don’t see how it is possible for a political party formed a couple of weeks ago with no prior structure could have any credibly endorsed or representative policies.  The policies will be whatever a Salmond claims they are and that is not me having a go at him, there is simply no other mechanism for policy formulation.

Policies must be determined before a party starts an election campaign not running parallel with it.  Decent journalists would be making that point.

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33 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

1. Get Salmond elected.

2. Compulsory sleepy cuddles.

3. Err, that’s it....

 

 

 

Seriously, I don’t see how it is possible for a political party formed a couple of weeks ago with no prior structure could have any credibly endorsed or representative policies.  The policies will be whatever a Salmond claims they are and that is not me having a go at him, there is simply no other mechanism for policy formulation.

Policies must be determined before a party starts an election campaign not running parallel with it.  Decent journalists would be making that point.

Agree with that, it's difficult to work out exactly what Salmond hopes to achieve.

1 - Does he want as many seats as possible

2 - Is he just out to take as many votes away from the SNP as possible.

3 - Is he out to spoil the tory list vote.

4 -  Or is it a vanity thing at the end of the day. 

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1 hour ago, Baxter Parp said:
5 hours ago, dirty dingus said:
Yes I know but getting infastructure set up for eventual trade routes after independence coud counter Westminsters guards at Berwick, paperwork nightmares etc..etc..

Could you explain how ScotGov could set up the infrastructure for a reserved matter before independence?

We have a massive operation for imports/exports in Greenock at the Ocean Terminal(Peel Ports). The majority of the trade is with North America and ROW rather than Europe I believe as well as a hub for cruise ships . The Scots government can see about getting investment to get the same sort of operation working on the east coast.

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1 minute ago, dirty dingus said:

We have a massive operation for imports/exports in Greenock at the Ocean Terminal(Peel Ports). The majority of the trade is with North America and ROW rather than Europe I believe as well as a hub for cruise ships . The Scots government can see about getting investment to get the same sort of operation working on the east coast.

Just expand the Export Capital of Scotland's existing capacity and leave the east coast bumpkins to rot.

image.png.5de7a4da2599452fb73633ee4d210df5.png

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Transport is not reserved.
The Scottish Government runs the country in relation to matters that are devolved from Westminster. This includes: the economy, education, health, justice, rural affairs, housing, environment, equal opportunities, consumer advocacy and advice, transport and taxation
That's transport in Scotland. Trade, international relations, immigration, international development and crucially, marine and air transport are all reserved.
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1 hour ago, Granny Danger said:

1. Get Salmond elected.

2. Compulsory sleepy cuddles.

3. Err, that’s it....

 

 

 

Seriously, I don’t see how it is possible for a political party formed a couple of weeks ago with no prior structure could have any credibly endorsed or representative policies.  The policies will be whatever a Salmond claims they are and that is not me having a go at him, there is simply no other mechanism for policy formulation.

Policies must be determined before a party starts an election campaign not running parallel with it.  Decent journalists would be making that point.

From what I've seen, 3 is most definitely "Produce a list of candidates full of utter wronguns".

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49 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said:
2 hours ago, SandyCromarty said:
Transport is not reserved.
The Scottish Government runs the country in relation to matters that are devolved from Westminster. This includes: the economy, education, health, justice, rural affairs, housing, environment, equal opportunities, consumer advocacy and advice, transport and taxation

That's transport in Scotland. Trade, international relations, immigration, international development and crucially, marine and air transport are all reserved.

Dingus has mentioned Clydeport , which includes Greenocks Ocean Terminal, and it's international marine imports and exports trade.

They  are going ahead with a major new cruise berth at the Ocean terminal, the project is being funded equally between the Scottish and uk Gov's.

However this discussion began with Dingus asking why the Scottish Government can't presently build infrastructure for trade routes.

Baxter asked how the SCots Gov can build infrastructure for trade when it is a reserved matter.

Thing is we already have a large ferry port with a 540 mtr frontage at Rosyth.

No need for infrastructure as it's already there. 

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20 hours ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

IMG_20210404_213146.thumb.jpg.b28b67992e922d29e2a6bd53fba8d4cd.jpg

Having George Galloway leading the would be Scottish version of the Ulster Unionist Party complete with a red white and blue colour scheme (an appeal to the Celtic vote didn't work for him as a way to prolong his career so I guess needs must) is completely surreal. Guess that may help steer some RT watching Trump voter types towards the other half of Scotland United's leadership or whatever it was called from back in 1992 or so. Alex Salmond also had a personal vote in the rural NE that went well beyond independence supporters so he knows how to appeal to our version of Cletus the Slack-Jawed Yokel.

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Dingus has mentioned Clydeport , which includes Greenocks Ocean Terminal, and it's international marine imports and exports trade.
They  are going ahead with a major new cruise berth at the Ocean terminal, the project is being funded equally between the Scottish and uk Gov's.
However this discussion began with Dingus asking why the Scottish Government can't presently build infrastructure for trade routes.
Baxter asked how the SCots Gov can build infrastructure for trade when it is a reserved matter.
Thing is we already have a large ferry port with a 540 mtr frontage at Rosyth.
No need for infrastructure as it's already there. 
It just needs private investment and the cooperation of the Border Force.
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I'm sure they are having a Policy Conference (whatever that is!). 
Does anyone actually know any of Alba's policies yet apart from independence?
I believe they are announcing to the public tomorrow.

Still SNP 1 Green 2 at present but I'm here to be won over by attractive policies
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33 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said:

It just needs private investment and the cooperation of the Border Force.

Not my area of expertise but if it was likely to be profitable you’d get private investment.

I think that’s been the problem at Rosyth. No profits, no investment. Simple.

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