Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[GordonS]

1 hour ago, jakedee said:

1 hour ago, glasgow-sheep said:

Alba polling at just 3%

https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/2094895/its-all-over-for-salmond-exclusive-polling-puts-alba-party-on-3/?utm_source=twitter&s=08

Until I seen the question asked , I would have serious misgivings about a poll commissioned by D.C. Thomsons.

 

1 hour ago, jakedee said:

1 hour ago, glasgow-sheep said:

It's an opinion poll by reputable polling company. Why is there always a big conspiracy when polls don't go the way people want?

Oh, it's going the way I want, it's the question posed in the poll, which as far as I can see is not published, that I would have concerns about.

It couldn't matter less who paid for this poll, it's Survation, it's a standard voting intention poll and they will have used their standard methodology.

They will publish the full data table here within the next few days. When clients are newspapers they'll often get a period of exclusivity with the numbers so they get the publicity, but British Polling Council members will always publish their data tables.

You're right about one thing though - we'll need to see whether Alba was prompted in the question along with the main parties or was an option under 'other'. 

 

33 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

It's one poll of 1,000 people. Interesting to see if this is borne out with other polls. Too early to be drawing conclusions just yet.

1,000 is absolutely fine for a sample size, and while one poll is always one poll, this is a pollster who produces a Scottish political poll every few weeks.

And I don't think we don't know the sample size for this one but the sample for the last Survation poll commissioned by DC Thompson was 2,047. 

[Trogdor]

10 minutes ago, GordonS said:

1,000 is absolutely fine for a sample size, and while one poll is always one poll, this is a pollster who produces a Scottish political poll every few weeks.

And I don't think we don't know the sample size for this one but the sample for the last Survation poll commissioned by DC Thompson was 2,047. 

I wasn't criticising the sample size. According to John Curtice at What Scotland Thinks sample size is 1,021.

 

[GordonS]

1 hour ago, Trogdor said:

I wasn't criticising the sample size. According to John Curtice at What Scotland Thinks sample size is 1,021.

 

Ta, that would be more in keeping with their usual.

Looks like What Scotland Thinks has the headline data. Some of it is brutal. Alex Salmond is vastly more unpopular than Boris Johnson.

[Gordon EF]

Just did a panelbase poll which was basically...

1. Who're you voting for?
2. Who do you like best, Sturgeon or Salmond?
3. What do you think about trans folk?

Edited April 1, 2021 by Gordon EF

[BFTD]

17 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

Just did a panelbase poll which was basically...

1. Who're you voting for?
2. Who do you like best, Sturgeon or Salmond?
3. What do you think about trans folk?

Someone trying to confirm the Alba/Salmond/Perverts correlation, methinks.

[Trogdor]

11 hours ago, GordonS said:

Ta, that would be more in keeping with their usual.

Looks like What Scotland Thinks has the headline data. Some of it is brutal. Alex Salmond is vastly more unpopular than Boris Johnson.

Aye, it doesn't look good. Being less popular than Boris in Scotland is some achievement. 

[Granny Danger]

12 hours ago, GordonS said:

Ta, that would be more in keeping with their usual.

Looks like What Scotland Thinks has the headline data. Some of it is brutal. Alex Salmond is vastly more unpopular than Boris Johnson.

So there’s the same percentage who have never heard of him as are strongly favourable.  That must hurt.  

[BFTD]

3 hours ago, Pato said:

This is all very funny and that's all I have to contribute to the discourse at the present time.

I'm still in the camp of finding it all a bit sad. The Emperor's been trying out his invisible socks since 2014, but has well and truly gone for the full outfit now and isn't too fussed who he surrounds himself with so long as they say he's looks resplendent.

No wonder he always looks so bloody miserable these days.

[betting competition]

 

[John Lambies Doos]

 

Interesting, I presume the Alba party are promoting a SNP vote in constituencies?

[ayrmad]

1 minute ago, John Lambies Doos said:

14 minutes ago, betting competition said:

 

Interesting, I presume the Alba party are promoting a SNP vote in constituencies?

Obviously. 

[John Lambies Doos]

Obviously. 

Clearly, but just asking if they are actively pushing it in their rhetoric

[ayrmad]

3 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

4 minutes ago, ayrmad said:

Obviously. 

Clearly, but just asking if they are actively pushing it in their rhetoric

They are but reading the comments of some would suggest they'll struggle to vote SNP 1,I've hardly ever read comments sections on anything that makes me want to vote for anyone, cultists and nut jobs and everything in between appears to be the norm. 

[betting competition]

12 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

26 minutes ago, betting competition said:

 

Interesting, I presume the Alba party are promoting a SNP vote in constituencies?

 

[betting competition]

Alba doing better in this poll, ahead of the Lib Dems, even George Galloway party might get a seat.

Edited April 3, 2021 by betting competition

[betting competition]

 

[vikingTON]

Someone's going to have to explain where all those extra list votes for the Greens and Alba and the Galloway clowns are coming from, as the losses from the mainstream parties (and the busted flush Lib Dems) do not match up. Are UKIP's remnant or simply don't know taking the heavy dunt? 

I'm not surprised by that Alba figure: if the SNP constituency vote holds up as polled then that would work out better for the Yes coalition in terms of the Holyrood arithmetic at least. If the SNP don't clean up the constituency seats and lose second votes in the same regions though then it could backfire. The margins are pretty tight between those two outcomes. 

 

[vikingTON]

 

12 minutes ago, betting competition said:

 

The buckled Yoon framing for this poll is clearly established then. 79 Yes votes is a plain majority - in the same way that there has been an independence majority at Holyrood since 2014. Another ten Yoons getting punted out would be delicious though. 

Unless the sample size of the poll is in the 10,000 range then regional list projections for Galloway or any other candidate (i.e. Salmond) should be filed in the bin. 

Edited April 4, 2021 by vikingTON

[vikingTON]

NB: In an independent Scotland we'd clearly have regular full-size polls being devoted to each Scottish region - similar to state polls In the US - which would give both a better prediction of the outcome and the voter the information needed to make a genuine tactical choice on the list. 

If the Greens are on 11% in the West of Scotland for example then an extra vote for them is worth far more than if they're on 8%. The current polls cannot provide this information. 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

 
The buckled Yoon framing for this poll is clearly established then. 79 Yes votes is a plain majority - in the same way that there has been an independence majority at Holyrood since 2014. Another ten Yoons getting punted out would be delicious though. 
Unless the sample size of the poll is in the 10,000 range then regional list projections for Galloway or any other candidate (i.e. Salmond) should be filed in the bin. 

With an error margin of +/- 3% then the further away from 50% you get the bigger the error becomes.

With an error margin like that Alba could be anywhere between 3% and 9%; AFU could be between 1% and 7%.

If 1,000 people are polled (a typical polling sample) then we are talking 60 people responded Alba and 40 people responded AFU - weighting might be screwing this up as well.