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Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence


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It's an opinion poll by reputable polling company. Why is there always a big conspiracy when polls don't go the way people want?
Oh, it's going the way I want, it's the question posed in the poll, which as far as I can see is not published, that I would have concerns about.
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3% is pretty good for a spite party pulled out of someone's arse a couple of months before an election.

Must still be a bit disappointing to realise you're not Farage and the rabble are not yet roused, however. It'll be interesting to see how desperate Eck gets.

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Discounting the entire vote being concentrated in one or two regions which obviously isn't the case here, then even accounting for regional variations within that figure you're not getting seats if you're pulling in 3% nationally. Hopefully this'll be borne out by further polling, and it kills any momentum they're perceived to have.

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More than 20% of those who will vote SNP on the constituency will use their list vote elsewhere, but looks like the majority of that is going to the Greens not Alba.
Many have been saying for ages they were going to go SNP-Green - nothing is going to change that.

If anything it will make those who usually vote SNP-SNP think about voting Green instead on the list.
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Alba 3%..... greens at 11 on list%.

SNP at 49% on constituency and 38% on list.....

That could mean 65 / 66 snp seats.... and 11 green.

There's your supermajority.

Tories down to high teens from 28% last election.

Labour up a couple of %.

The tory idea that yoons should be tactical is not going to work as well as 2017.

Labour will gain ground on Tories.

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Interesting to see the Lib Dems picking up three seats I assume from Labour & the Tories. Clearly oor Willie's big fucking deck chair works. Also v pleased with the projection of 11 seats for the Greens.

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7 minutes ago, Trogdor said:

It's one poll of 1,000 people. Interesting to see if this is borne out with other polls. Too early to be drawing conclusions just yet.

Yes and No, it's a standard poll, with a standard Margin of Error. Of course, you can never take a poll in isolation - you need to look at trends and no doubt the Sunday papers will have a few on the go.

Interesting to note though, that Survation tend to ask the list question in an odd way: they ask who you are giving "your second vote" to, which is thought to push those who would be tempted to switch into declaring that they will. Thus, they have in the past tended to flatter the Green vote a wee bit. Same rationale, however, would apply to Alba.

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It's one poll of 1,000 people. Interesting to see if this is borne out with other polls. Too early to be drawing conclusions just yet.
I assume there will be more polls over the weekend - if they are the same then Alba are dead in the water.

It seems clear that the MSM have decided to ignore Alba completely since Salmond's announcement to avoid them getting any publicity.
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1 minute ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

I assume there will be more polls over the weekend - if they are the same then Alba are dead in the water.

Would agree with that. Consistently <5% and they are an irrelevance. 

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2 minutes ago, madwullie said:

Does Salmond not have the presence up in banjo country to at least scrape the one seat up there?

Aye. For him, just now that's likely the only majority he cares about.

Edited by renton
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