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Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence


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43 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

So it's well within the margin of error that the SNP are polling ahead of the Lib Dems..... UK wide.

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There was a poll posted a while back where that was literally true - more people projected to vote SNP in Scotland than to vote Liberal Democrat across the entirety of the UK. There are more than 12x as many people in the UK than in Scotland alone. Incredible how unpopular the Lib Dems have made themselves.

That poll is more confirmation that England is perfectly happy with what the Tories are doing and, likely, what they plan to do in the future. And that lead isn't taking into account the fact that they've lost a massive, erm, 3% of the vote to Farage's latest bullshit. Labour would be as well packing up and going home for the next few elections, at least.

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23 minutes ago, BFTD said:

There was a poll posted a while back where that was literally true - more people projected to vote SNP in Scotland than to vote Liberal Democrat across the entirety of the UK. There are more than 12x as many people in the UK than in Scotland alone. Incredible how unpopular the Lib Dems have made themselves.

That poll is more confirmation that England is perfectly happy with what the Tories are doing and, likely, what they plan to do in the future. And that lead isn't taking into account the fact that they've lost a massive, erm, 3% of the vote to Farage's latest bullshit. Labour would be as well packing up and going home for the next few elections, at least.

This is why we need Independence.  Scotland has rejected Toryism for decades yet I’ve lived under far more Tory governments in my 66 years than any alternatives.

As an aside, Starmer’s policy of offering no opposition isn’t really working for Labour.  If these sort of figures continue into summer I can see him coming under pressure from the same people who backed him for the leadership.

 

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3 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

This is why we need Independence.  Scotland has rejected Toryism for decades yet I’ve lived under far more Tory governments in my 66 years than any alternatives.

As an aside, Starmer’s policy of offering no opposition isn’t really working for Labour.  If these sort of figures continue into summer I can see him coming under pressure from the same people who backed him for the leadership.

Christ, you're only 66? Poor show, posing as an antediluvian. I don't know what to believe anymore.

At least we have a way out. I feel for the underclass in England. Life's never been a barrel of laughs if you've no money, but it's hasn't finished getting harder for them, and they're stuck with it.

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7 hours ago, BFTD said:

Christ, you're only 66? Poor show, posing as an antediluvian. I don't know what to believe anymore.

At least we have a way out. I feel for the underclass in England. Life's never been a barrel of laughs if you've no money, but it's hasn't finished getting harder for them, and they're stuck with it.

It’s a typo.  Should be 666.

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I think thats quite a significant result given its an SNP loss and the quite serious campaigning the SNP candidate had put in. I dont think everything is going to be as clear cut in May as many predict. 
Eh... SNP vote has increased by around 13% right bang in middle of smear against Sturgeon... Good result imo
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2 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

I think thats quite a significant result given its an SNP loss and the quite serious campaigning the SNP candidate had put in. I dont think everything is going to be as clear cut in May as many predict. 

I think folk are mainly following the polls that suggest that the SNP will likely fall just short or or just achieve a majority but it'll undoubtedly be an SNP win. I don't see the SNP increasing their share of the vote significantly in a tiny council by-election has any real significance on that at all.

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4 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

I think thats quite a significant result given its an SNP loss and the quite serious campaigning the SNP candidate had put in. I dont think everything is going to be as clear cut in May as many predict. 

It was always predicted to be an SNP loss. SNP actually made it closer than expected.

 

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14 hours ago, BFTD said:

There was a poll posted a while back where that was literally true - more people projected to vote SNP in Scotland than to vote Liberal Democrat across the entirety of the UK. There are more than 12x as many people in the UK than in Scotland alone. Incredible how unpopular the Lib Dems have made themselves.

That poll is more confirmation that England is perfectly happy with what the Tories are doing and, likely, what they plan to do in the future. And that lead isn't taking into account the fact that they've lost a massive, erm, 3% of the vote to Farage's latest bullshit. Labour would be as well packing up and going home for the next few elections, at least.

Aye, but Jo Swinson is still the Prime Minister......isn't she?

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I think thats quite a significant result given its an SNP loss and the quite serious campaigning the SNP candidate had put in. I dont think everything is going to be as clear cut in May as many predict. 
Heavily Labour voting area.

Labour vote has stayed pretty much static on 1st preferences from the 2017 by-election whereas SNP vote on 1st preferences is up 13%

Labour elected at 4th stage due to transfers from Tory voters breaking heavily to them - as you would expect.

In multi-member council wards where STV normally splits the elected councillors between parties fairly by-elections effectively become like a FPTP election but with added transfers from other parties voters to meet the quota to be elected.

Hence why Fortissat is a 4 member ward where now all 4 councillors are Labour.
They got 2 elected in 2017 council election with highest % of the vote, then won both by-elections since then as they again got the highest % of the vote.

Next year 2 of those Labour councillors will be out as STV again will mean they will likely get 2 of the 4 seats - and indeed may only stand 2 candidates for that seat.

TL/DR version of the above - not actually a bad result for the SNP at all.
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Heavily Labour voting area.

Labour vote has stayed pretty much static on 1st preferences from the 2017 by-election whereas SNP vote on 1st preferences is up 13%

Labour elected at 4th stage due to transfers from Tory voters breaking heavily to them - as you would expect.

In multi-member council wards where STV normally splits the elected councillors between parties fairly by-elections effectively become like a FPTP election but with added transfers from other parties voters to meet the quota to be elected.

Hence why Fortissat is a 4 member ward where now all 4 councillors are Labour.
They got 2 elected in 2017 council election with highest % of the vote, then won both by-elections since then as they again got the highest % of the vote.

Next year 2 of those Labour councillors will be out as STV again will mean they will likely get 2 of the 4 seats - and indeed may only stand 2 candidates for that seat.

TL/DR version of the above - not actually a bad result for the SNP at all.
Is there much of a boneheaded religious Unionist vote in that area ? If so it can easily flit between Labour and Tory suggesting this was a decent SNP showing.
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2 hours ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

I think thats quite a significant result given its an SNP loss and the quite serious campaigning the SNP candidate had put in. I dont think everything is going to be as clear cut in May as many predict. 

I’m assuming most Tory second choices went to Labour.  

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