Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[SANTAN]

7 minutes ago, lichtgilphead said:

You don't need any permission to post ACH's lies. They gave me a good laugh.

I thought you wanted to discuss the poll though? Why would any SNP supporter be worried about a 55-4 win in Scotland in a Westminster election?

I can't recall saying I wanted to discuss the poll, as said 1 page before I've stated my views on such polls already numerous times, again, I was posting to see the reactions from certain people. 

[renton]

10 hours ago, Stormzy said:

I can't recall saying I wanted to discuss the poll, as said 1 page before I've stated my views on such polls already numerous times, again, I was posting to see the reactions from certain people. 

Might help to briefly restate your views on "such polls" and to explain what particular reactions you were expecting to see.

[SANTAN]

1 hour ago, renton said:

Might help to briefly restate your views on "such polls" and to explain what particular reactions you were expecting to see.

I pay extremely little attention to them, obviously some stick out as having less margin for error and better sample sizes etc, so I take some more seriously than others but overall I take them with a massive pinch of salt.

I was expecting extremely dismissive takes, I was intrigued to see if those came from the same people that seem to take similar polls as gospel, didn't really happen tbf, you have a measured response and a few people spoke about penises. My desired outcome was not reached unfortunately. 

[Gordon EF]

Basically if anyone doesn't take the opinion that:

• Individual polls have little meaning in and of themselves.
• Rolling averages of multiple polls conducted by different polling companies across longer timescales absolutely do give a good indication of public opinion and the trends in it.
• Every poll is a snapshot of public opinion right now and that doesn't mean it can't change in the future.

Then, I'm sorry, but you're just wrong.

[welshbairn]

1 hour ago, Stormzy said:

a few people spoke about penises. My desired outcome was not reached unfortunately.

I think the NSFW section of the forum might reward you better.

[GordonS]

So, in the world of reality.

http://ballotbox.scot/scottish-parliament/polling-scottish-parliament

[GordonS]

In January 2016 the SNP were averaging 47% in the regions and 53% in the constituencies.

They're currently averaging 46% on the regions and 54% in the constituencies.

#DisasterForSturgeon

There is a warning for the SNP though, that they came in well below these levels, but I think they'd probably settle for a repeat of the 2016 result.

 

[BFTD]

A decade on, I wonder how the remaining Liberal Democrats feel about their brief, exciting foray into government, considering the only people to gain from it were the Conservative Party and token cabinet members like Nick Clegg.

I'd ask one of the Lib Dem voters I know, but that's on the list with asking a unicorn if it's true that their poops are sparkly.

[Gordon EF]

3 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Looks from that like people are not buying #bothvotesSNP

Certainly looks like a solid chunk have moved from SNP/SNP to SNP/Green over the last 6 months which is very encouraging but we could be doing with a hell of a lot more making that switch.

[Erih Shtrep]

I follow the ISP but I'm getting fucked off at them targeting the Scottish Greens.   

I'm fairly certain I'm going SNP/Green.  

[lichtgilphead]

9 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Looks from that like people are not buying #bothvotesSNP

 

4 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

Certainly looks like a solid chunk have moved from SNP/SNP to SNP/Green over the last 6 months which is very encouraging but we could be doing with a hell of a lot more making that switch.

I would suggest that the difference between the SNP's constituency vote & list vote may relate to pragmatic Green voters voting SNP/Green rather than Green/Green. This isn't a new effect.

If #bothvotessnp wasn't gaining traction, I woulld expect so see some increase in the vote share of the new parties - as far as I can see, this isn't happening.

Personally, I'm going to vote SNP/SNP because the SNP (and Greens) are both likely to pick up a list seat each in Highlands & Islands. The same would apply if I stayed in the South of Scotland.

Anywhere else, however, I would consider SNP/Green

 

 

[Gordon EF]

3 minutes ago, lichtgilphead said:

 

I would suggest that the difference between the SNP's constituency vote & list vote may relate to pragmatic Green voters voting SNP/Green rather than Green/Green. This isn't a new effect.

If #bothvotessnp wasn't gaining traction, I woulld expect so see some increase in the vote share of the new parties - as far as I can see, this isn't happening.

Personally, I'm going to vote SNP/SNP because the SNP (and Greens) are both likely to pick up a list seat each in Highlands & Islands. The same would apply if I stayed in the South of Scotland.

Anywhere else, however, I would consider SNP/Green

 

 

Only going by those graphs where the SNP and Green lines are basically mirror images of each other, suggesting the Greens have taken some regional votes from the SNP.

Edited January 21, 2021 by Gordon EF

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

My local candidate is a good councillor who responds well and seems to get things done. That said we’ve essentially been left without MSP representation since Mckay decided we didnt need it and continued to take a full salary whilst doing no work. That coupled with the shambles of the covid response and their record on criminal justice means voting snp would require me to hold my nose considerably. There is no way they are getting both votes, i’d be interested in a pro indy labour party that was led by Monica Lennon and separate from the Blairites like Baillie, Sarwar and the London branch, but that seems a long way off, so for now it might need to be a very reluctant snp/green or just spoil the ballot/green. 

[lichtgilphead]

2 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

 

I'd say the SNP must also be losing some list votes to Labour. 

Perhaps, but that effect has previously been explained away as voters not understanding that they can give both votes to the same party, and voting for their 1st & 2nd choices

[lichtgilphead]

Just now, MixuFruit said:

It could just be folk wanting to vote for Labour m8

Personally, if I wanted to vote labour, I would vote for them in the constituency as well as on the list. 

Can you give me a reason why anyone would I want to vote SNP/Labour? All that I can think of would be to keep the tories out in the constituency in a SNP/Tory marginal

[oneteaminglasgow]

12 minutes ago, lichtgilphead said:

Personally, if I wanted to vote labour, I would vote for them in the constituency as well as on the list. 

Can you give me a reason why anyone would I want to vote SNP/Labour? All that I can think of would be to keep the tories out in the constituency in a SNP/Tory marginal

Could be that they like whomever the Labour list candidate is?

If he wasn’t stepping down, I’d probably consider going Labour on the list to keep Neil Findlay in a job purely to see him continue to call every other member of Parliament a c**t.

Edit: Just realised your asking why a Labour supporter would vote SNP on the constituency. Could have a very good local MSP? Or, as you say, if they think not starving children is more important that the Union they could want to stop the Tories.

Edited January 21, 2021 by oneteaminglasgow

[lichtgilphead]

How does a random Labour supporter voting SNP in the constituecy force the SNP to "tack left"

I'm genuinely intrigued!

[renton]

37 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

Only going by those graphs where the SNP and Green lines are basically mirror images of each other, suggesting the Greens have taken some regional votes from the SNP.

The other interesting mirror there seems to be Labour and the Tories - jockeying for the core unionist vote.

[welshbairn]

Tactical voting in Scotland is incomprehensible to me unless you're a diehard Unionist and don't care between the Tories, Labour and Libdems. If you want independence vote SNP 1 and 2, or SNP/Green if you must. May's election is hugely important for a proven mandate, vote share is as important as the number of seats, if not more so.

[GordonS]

1 hour ago, Gordon EF said:

Certainly looks like a solid chunk have moved from SNP/SNP to SNP/Green over the last 6 months which is very encouraging but we could be doing with a hell of a lot more making that switch.

It's nothing new, this pattern has been around for years. The SNP's regional vote peaked in 2011 and has slid back since; there are lots of possible reasons and most people pick the one that suits their opinions.

1 hour ago, lichtgilphead said:

 

I would suggest that the difference between the SNP's constituency vote & list vote may relate to pragmatic Green voters voting SNP/Green rather than Green/Green. This isn't a new effect.

 

Exactly, there will be very few Green constituency candidates and their voters know it's baout the region.

It would help if the media could get people to understand that the regional vote is the more important of the two that we have, because it moderates out the constituency votes. It boils my piss when it's called the second vote.

1 hour ago, Gordon EF said:

Only going by those graphs where the SNP and Green lines are basically mirror images of each other, suggesting the Greens have taken some regional votes from the SNP.

Or the SNP have taken constituency votes from Greens, because the Greens don't stand in many constituencies and even where they do they're unlikely to win.

Whether an SNP/Green voter is an SNP voter "lending" a vote to the Greens, or a Green voter "lending" their vote to the SNP, is like wondering whether a zebra is black with white stripes or white with black stripes.