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Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence


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25 minutes ago, HeartsOfficialMoaner said:

We only care about ourselves and money why are we not voting for the Tories. We are not doing it right.

I'm just saying that in my opinion, fewer Scots than we like to think really are all that bothered about Social Justice and equality. There are still plenty folk who do vote Tory. The internet has become a bit of an echo chamber in this regard since 2014. The vast majority of people under 45 or so who hang around on message boards and use SM appear to be in favour of social justice, and are pro-Indi, so I think the mistake is made that Scots as a whole tend to be like minded. The twinset and pearls brigade, executive high-flyers, career-minded Thatcherites etc are under-represented in these places, so the assumption is made, incorrectly, that they're practically non-existent in society at large.

For a lot of the undecideds, I don't think anything will get them on board until they personally believe they're going to be better off, never mind the benefits to wider Scottish society.

Every time I had the debate with my 'No' voting in-laws prior to 2014 they always brought it around to money within the first few minutes. They're not especially different to any other middle class Scottish family, they've just conditioned themselves to think about their own financial wellbeing first and foremost, and don't really give a monkeys about societal fairness, at least, it's way, way down the list of priorities after pensions, mortgages, salaries, savings, investments, disposable income, petrol prices, prices of flights abroad etc Now obviously some of those things very much are intertwined with social justice, but for them it's not a question of helping the poorest off to achieve a more equal society, it's a question of can I upgrade my car this year, afford a foreign holiday, stick another 10 grand in the pension pot etc

In essence, I do agree that on balance Scots are an altruistic minded bunch, certainly compared to people in some other parts of the UK, but perhaps it's not quite to the degree, or as wholesale and widespread as we like to think.

Edited by Boo Khaki
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BritNats make up a good percentage of the population. They are slowly dying out, however. 

There's no way that the appetite for independence is going to deplete to a level that kills it off. It's only going to keep growing. 52%, 55%, 99%, it doesn't matter. It's a majority of people. The SNP 100% have a mandate to ask the question again given what has happened in the 6 years since IndyRef. Getting a majority of seats next year (in a PR system btw) would only solidify that. My preference would be having it in 2024. 10 years is plenty of time for people to change their minds and reconsider, never mind what has went on since they promised us a near enough federal Scotland in the Vow (lol). And before the BritNats hijack this, nowhere in the Smith Commission does it say an IndyRef must be "once every generation". It was a statement said by a couple of politicians. Happy to help. 

Edited by DAFC.
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8 hours ago, Boo Khaki said:

I do think that, sadly, a majority of Scots are by far and away concerned with their wallets, bank balance, and house price first and foremost, and don't really care about social justice, proper representation, social fairness, or the wellbeing of the country as a whole.

I think it's both completely wrong and very insulting to assume that everyone opposed to independence is putting their own interests ahead of social justice. It's a perfectly reasonable position to believe that Scotland would be worse off after independence and so there would be less money for public services. I'm not saying I agree with that, but I certainly wouldn't question the morality of those who do. It definitely describes most Labour and Lib Dem voters.

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2 minutes ago, GordonS said:

I think it's both completely wrong and very insulting to assume that everyone opposed to independence is putting their own interests ahead of social justice.

Well they can't exactly argue that they're putting social justice first, can they?

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9 minutes ago, GordonS said:

I think it's both completely wrong and very insulting to assume that everyone opposed to independence is putting their own interests ahead of social justice. It's a perfectly reasonable position to believe that Scotland would be worse off after independence and so there would be less money for public services. I'm not saying I agree with that, but I certainly wouldn't question the morality of those who do. It definitely describes most Labour and Lib Dem voters.

Yeah, I probably should have qualified that by saying I was implying that about a large proportion of undecideds and some No voters, not "all Scots" or all No voters.

See for arguments sake what I was saying about my former in-laws. It's not that they literally couldn't care less about social justice, they just don't care enough about it to make it a priority and actually vote for it if it's going to leave them worse off. Hence why any argument about Independence being for the betterment of Scotland as a whole is wasted on them. They'd only ever consider voting for it if it was of financial benefit to them personally, so unless the pro-Indi side can somehow guarantee that existing reasonably comfortable middle-class people like them are going to be better off still, they're a lost cause. That's why I think there hasn't been a dramatic shift in the Yes/No polling based on recent constitutional and societal developments alone. It's still not the single largest matter of concern for a considerable number of people, economy and personal wealth is.

Edited by Boo Khaki
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6 minutes ago, BawWatchin said:

Well they can't exactly argue that they're putting social justice first, can they?

Of course they can! They believe that an independent Scotland would be worse for people who rely on public spending than staying in the UK. That's the primary motivation on constitutional issues for the majority who still support Labour, especially their members.

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2 minutes ago, GordonS said:

Of course they can! They believe that an independent Scotland would be worse for people who rely on public spending than staying in the UK. That's the primary motivation on constitutional issues for the majority who still support Labour, especially their members.

Public spending and social justice are 2 different things.

There is no moral argument for the UK. Even if they believe there is a financial one.

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3 minutes ago, Boo Khaki said:

Yeah, I probably should have qualified that by saying I was implying that about a large proportion of undecideds and some No voters, not "all Scots" or all No voters.

See for arguments sake what I was saying about my former in-laws. It's not that they literally couldn't care less about social justice, they just don't care enough about it to make it a priority and actually vote for it if it's going to leave them worse off. Hence why any argument about Independence being for the betterment of Scotland as a whole is wasted on them. They'd only ever consider voting for it if it was of financial benefit to them personally, so unless the pro-Indi side can somehow guarantee that existing reasonably comfortable middle-class people like them are going to be better off still, they're a lost cause. That's why I don't think there's a dramatic shift in the Yes/No polling based on recent constitutional and societal developments alone.

There are equivalent camps on either side. There are the identity-driven types, and nothing could ever shift their opinion. Then there are the best-for-me types. I think the wealthier ones break No and the poorer ones break Yes. Then there are the best-for-fairness types, and I think they mostly break Yes.

I think I prefer the better-for-me lot to the identity people. When folk start putting flags above socio-economics, that scares me.

 

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1 minute ago, BawWatchin said:

Public spending and social justice are 2 different things.

There is no moral argument for the UK. Even if they believe there is a financial one.

What you're expressing is an opinion and not a fact.

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21 minutes ago, GordonS said:

There are equivalent camps on either side. There are the identity-driven types, and nothing could ever shift their opinion. Then there are the best-for-me types. I think the wealthier ones break No and the poorer ones break Yes. Then there are the best-for-fairness types, and I think they mostly break Yes.

I think I prefer the better-for-me lot to the identity people. When folk start putting flags above socio-economics, that scares me.

 

From a 'yes' perspective, the bolded part is the problem as I see it. I don't think you'll ever see upwards of 60% consistently for Yes until some of those wealthy 'best for me' types change their stance, and I don't see how that's remotely possible while most honest pro-indi voices are now openly admitting that Indi could be financially rough for a while, and that the people likely to bear the brunt of it are these very same reasonably well off middle class types.

Lets face it, if concerns about democracy, societal fairness, representation etc were actually going to be the pivotal issues on which the Yes/No balance swung, I think we'd have seen a far larger swing in the past five years than the 3-4% the polls are suggesting. If the chaos of post-2015 UK hasn't changed more minds, then putting the 'identity-types' aside, for the rest it can only be about money/wealth and the economy.

Essentially I agree with you regarding the people who believe that leaving the UK would leave us worse off and be detrimental to our society as a whole, but then, if those people are genuinely interested in societal justice and fairness, what are they proposing to do about the current situation? Persisting with Westminster rule and the Union seems like a nonsense, considering it's the status quo that has created an unequal, unfair society in the first place. There's quite clearly no appetite for addressing that stemming from London.

Edited by Boo Khaki
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1 hour ago, GordonS said:

I think it's both completely wrong and very insulting to assume that everyone opposed to independence is putting their own interests ahead of social justice. It's a perfectly reasonable position to believe that Scotland would be worse off after independence and so there would be less money for public services. I'm not saying I agree with that, but I certainly wouldn't question the morality of those who do. It definitely describes most Labour and Lib Dem voters.

I absolutely do not believe it describes “most” of the voters of either of these parties - not given those parties’ track records.

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48 minutes ago, Boo Khaki said:

 I don't see how that's remotely possible while most honest pro-indi voices are now openly admitting that Indi could be financially rough for a while, and that the people likely to bear the brunt of it are these very same reasonably well off middle class types.

I’m not condoning it, but a number of these exact types were willing to vote for Brexit despite being warned it would destroy them financially, never mind being simply rough for a few years. It can be done - although it appears to involve a great deal of dishonesty, trickery, and playing on existing prejudices, sadly.

Edited by Antlion
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4 hours ago, DAFC. said:

BritNats make up a good percentage of the population. They are slowly dying out, however. 

There's no way that the appetite for independence is going to deplete to a level that kills it off. It's only going to keep growing. 52%, 55%, 99%, it doesn't matter. It's a majority of people. The SNP 100% have a mandate to ask the question again given what has happened in the 6 years since IndyRef. Getting a majority of seats next year (in a PR system btw) would only solidify that. My preference would be having it in 2024. 10 years is plenty of time for people to change their minds and reconsider, never mind what has went on since they promised us a near enough federal Scotland in the Vow (lol). And before the BritNats hijack this, nowhere in the Smith Commission does it say an IndyRef must be "once every generation". It was a statement said by a couple of politicians. Happy to help. 

Proving there's a mandate isn't really important anymore.  Everyone knows it's there but the power brokers down south and their happy clappers are happy to pretend there isn't.

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2 minutes ago, Boo Khaki said:

Perhaps the National's 'The SNP/Indi needs it's own Dominic Cummings' piece, or whatever it was, wasnae quite as daft as it sounds then.

Depends what the piece is arguing, I suppose. Cummings isn't that smart (or at least he's built up to be more than he is) but one thing he's being proven right about that we should be learning from is that you can accomplish a lot by disregarding the stupid norms and institutions that are supposed to govern this country.

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Depends what the piece is arguing, I suppose. Cummings isn't that smart (or at least he's built up to be more than he is) but one thing he's being proven right about that we should be learning from is that you can accomplish a lot by disregarding the stupid norms and institutions that are supposed to govern this country.

The lesson is for IndyRef2 the gloves need to come off.   

 

 

If that means having some arm-lengths bare-faced lies (or at least stretching the truth) then so be it.

 

I would be using Johnson and Cummings mugs on every piece of publicity to remind people what a bunch of tossers runs Westminster.

 

Project Fear 2 should be opposed with our own Project Fear - learn from the lies that thd Brexiters got away with.

 

 

 

 

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Scot Goes Pop / Panelbase poll, 1st-5th June 2020:

If Boris Johnson and the UK Government manage to block an independence referendum, do you think that pro-independence parties such as the SNP and the Greens should consider including an outright promise of independence in their manifestos for a future election, to give people an opportunity to vote for or against the idea?

Yes 49%
No 29%

With Don't Knows excluded, it's roughly...

Yes 63%
No 37%

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59 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

The lesson is for IndyRef2 the gloves need to come off.   

 

 

If that means having some arm-lengths bare-faced lies (or at least stretching the truth) then so be it.

 

I would be using Johnson and Cummings mugs on every piece of publicity to remind people what a bunch of tossers runs Westminster.

 

Project Fear 2 should be opposed with our own Project Fear - learn from the lies that thd Brexiters got away with.

 

 

 

 

I hate to say it, but you’re right. If the first referendum taught us anything it’s that the old adage about a lie travelling around the world whilst the truth is still getting its boots on is correct. Any UK nationalist campaign won’t just have the gloves of, it’ll be wearing knuckle dusters. The Yes campaign will have to be prepared to be on the front foot rather than just reacting to the barrage of dirty tricks, which it fell into doing last time.

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