Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[GordonS]

7 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Think there's a natural psychological reaction to a crisis that the people in charge should be left alone to handle it as best they can, and that will transfer to some extent in polling. It doesn't last long though, see Churchill as someone pointed out before.

Totally agree, it's a national unity thing and it only last as long as the crisis does. How it's handled though could have a longer-term impact; Bush never recovered from Hurricane Katrina.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

You’re right and I think some of that goes down to the way that Sturgeon has dealt with everything publicly. I know a few people who make no secret to the fact they loath her and what she stands for, but have been impressed with how she has acted. I’m not saying those people will now vote SNP, I doubt they will but there will be others who will.

I suspect the poll above could be closer to the truth and I suspect SNP will gain in numbers whilst Tory drop and Labour have the worst election since the Scottish Parliament was formed. I can also see the SSP and Green’s picking up (more) seats through the list vote and tactical voting to strengthen the Independence majority.

Idiots like Historywoman are still putting out their uber-Unionist shite - just utter fucking roasters.

[Sunrise]

1 hour ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

2 hours ago, BB_Bino said:

You’re right and I think some of that goes down to the way that Sturgeon has dealt with everything publicly. I know a few people who make no secret to the fact they loath her and what she stands for, but have been impressed with how she has acted. I’m not saying those people will now vote SNP, I doubt they will but there will be others who will.

I suspect the poll above could be closer to the truth and I suspect SNP will gain in numbers whilst Tory drop and Labour have the worst election since the Scottish Parliament was formed. I can also see the SSP and Green’s picking up (more) seats through the list vote and tactical voting to strengthen the Independence majority.

Idiots like Historywoman are still putting out their uber-Unionist shite - just utter fucking roasters.

Steve Sayers is banned fae Twitter, sweet merciful f**k.

[Highland Capital]

Latest YouGov poll has the SSP (yes the SSP!) winning a seat in Holyrood next year.

[Lurkst]

Thumping lead for the SNP,  can't see mention of the SSP though...

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2020/05/unionist-journalists-learn-hard-way.html?m=1

[git-intae-thum]

18 minutes ago, Highland Capital said:

Latest YouGov poll has the SSP (yes the SSP!) winning a seat in Holyrood next year.

Wow......think what damage a genuinely independence focused party could do.

Time for rethink at SNP headquarters......before it's too late.

[Granny Danger]

55 minutes ago, Lurkst said:

Thumping lead for the SNP,  can't see mention of the SSP though...

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2020/05/unionist-journalists-learn-hard-way.html?m=1

So the whole Salmond debacle has apparently not had the negative impact that was forecast by the unionists.

The biggest and most important aspect of this is the continued political support for the SNP, hopefully taking us a step closer to Independence.

However tonight I’m going to take some pleasure out of the less important aspect, all the unionist twàts, both blue and red, who will be bealing at these figures.

[Blue-Toon]

https://www.thenational.scot/news/18421862.snp-set-huge-win-2021-holyrood-election-new-poll-shows/

[renton]

11 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

So the whole Salmond debacle has apparently not had the negative impact that was forecast by the unionists.

The biggest and most important aspect of this is the continued political support for the SNP, hopefully taking us a step closer to Independence.

However tonight I’m going to take some pleasure out of the less important aspect, all the unionist twàts, both blue and red, who will be bealing at these figures.

Some of that support will die back after the Coronavirus issue has passed from it's current high tempo. Sturgeon is getting plaudits for her undoubted communication skills and that general tendency to rally around leadership during a crisis.

Basically, that lead is soft. As nice a story as it is.

[John Lambies Doos]

Some of that support will die back after the Coronavirus issue has passed from it's current high tempo. Sturgeon is getting plaudits for her undoubted communication skills and that general tendency to rally around leadership during a crisis.
Basically, that lead is soft. As nice a story as it is.

Tick Tock. Very pleasing

[vikingTON]

17 minutes ago, renton said:

Some of that support will die back after the Coronavirus issue has passed from it's current high tempo. Sturgeon is getting plaudits for her undoubted communication skills and that general tendency to rally around leadership during a crisis.

Basically, that lead is soft. As nice a story as it is.

The same arguments apply to the party sitting in second place in that poll though, with a Iain Gray level non-entity now at the helm. There's no obvious place for that soft vote to transfer towards that would cause significant damage to The Only Show in Town; it would only be the difference between an outright majority or not.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

I find it very strange that given the inability to contain coronavirus and the fact the UK is a laughing stock internationally for its pish poor attempts to control it that any party of government in the UK is seeing a rise in support, surely the electorate are not that stupid?

[Crùbag]

As polls show the SNP on the way to a healthy majority in the Scottish Parly next year, the Herald us pushing David Icke as the new SNPbad merchant.

https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/1256341945510756352?s=20

[renton]

37 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

53 minutes ago, renton said:

Some of that support will die back after the Coronavirus issue has passed from it's current high tempo. Sturgeon is getting plaudits for her undoubted communication skills and that general tendency to rally around leadership during a crisis.
Basically, that lead is soft. As nice a story as it is.

Tick Tock. Very pleasing

Don't give me that knee jerk shit. I'm not some ruddy faced Yoon with a blog here. I'm pro Indy, but there has to be a strong suspicion that this lead is soft as shit. 

The SNP had a respectable lead going into the new year, and while it is reasonable to suggest that the Salmond trial itself did not harm the SNP, it was never likely to: the biggest threat to the SNP from that subject is the various factional infighting that is presently on deep freeze, not gone. Let's also face the fact that any Salmond conspiracy theories are really only a proxy  for the real schism which is between a redefined set of gradualists and fundamentalists. That is a challenge that needs to be faced, yet. So excuse me for not popping champagne corks because of a mammoth lead in a time of crisis. Even Gordon Brown's numbers ticked upwards in the aftermath of the banking crisis.

Let's not also lose sight of the fact that as we transition out of the rally round phase of this crisis into the inevitable blame game, there are bound to be accusations and recriminations regarding timing of lockdown, death rates in care homes and the 4 nation approach to dealing with it. 

None of that may stick to Sturgeon and by extension the SNP, some of it may. It could well be a more challenging issue for Sturgeon's leadership than any Salmond fall out

 

Edited May 2, 2020 by renton

[renton]

33 minutes ago, virginton said:

The same arguments apply to the party sitting in second place in that poll though, with a Iain Gray level non-entity now at the helm. There's no obvious place for that soft vote to transfer towards that would cause significant damage to The Only Show in Town; it would only be the difference between an outright majority or not.

True, but the soft vote doesn't need to go anywhere, it just needs to stay at home. That was what happened in the central belt seats in 2017. Labour vote barely ticked up but they won seats because the SNP vote stayed indoors.

The margin for success is being able to form a pro Indy majority with the Greens. If the SNP + Greens are short of a majority, even as the SNP win handsomely by any other metric and there would be a real sense of failure surrounding that result.

[Mr Heliums]

25 minutes ago, renton said:

The SNP had a respectable lead going into the new year, and while it is reasonable to suggest that the Salmond trial itself did not harm the SNP, it was never likely to

I think it was a danger of seriously hurting them, particularly as it followed the resignation of Derek Mackay. There was a real chance – you could definitely hear rumbles – that the narrative would have been about a party of Government that had lost its morals. Hard to recover from that.

Not that I think the current lead is sustainable. The only topic is COVID and Sturgeon's benefitting from comparison to Johnson and co. There will be other hurdles before the next election.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

I think it was a danger of seriously hurting them, particularly as it followed the resignation of Derek Mackay. There was a real chance – you could definitely hear rumbles – that the narrative would have been about a party of Government that had lost its morals. Hard to recover from that.

Not that I think the current lead is sustainable. The only topic is COVID and Sturgeon's benefitting from comparison to Johnson and co. There will be other hurdles before the next election.

Derek Mackay is my msp. As a former member and lifetime SNP voter i cannot in good faith vote for them next time round for a few reasons unless things dramatically change

1) Derek Mackay not having the decency to resign or his party forcing the issue, leaving me politically unrepresented during one of the most challenging times in recent history, with no elected member to express concerns to on a number of issues.

2) I believe the Scottish government AND the UK government have made a c**t of the response to corona virus and as a front line public sector worker I waited 4 weeks from lockdown before being provided an appropriate PPE mask yet still expected to be public facing. - i’ll qualify that by saying I think the tories are mostly responsible for the pish response but in areas controlled by the snp massive failings have also occurred.

 

Those being the two main reasons.

I dont like Ross Greer but on the whole think that the greens are principled folks and despite not agreeing with every policy may give them my second vote, but it does make the first constituency vote quite difficult, would never ever vote Tory or Lie dem and Scottish Labour is poisonous, but given locally especially with how little care the SNP have afforded my constituency you’d have to question how electable any reasonable voter finds them to be. I think a competent rival to the SNP would pick up a large amount of votes.

[vikingTON]

2 hours ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

I find it very strange that given the inability to contain coronavirus and the fact the UK is a laughing stock internationally for its pish poor attempts to control it that any party of government in the UK is seeing a rise in support, surely the electorate are not that stupid?

Did you pay attention at all to the 2010s?

[NotThePars]

15 hours ago, git-intae-thum said:

Wow......think what damage a genuinely independence focused party could do.

Time for rethink at SNP headquarters......before it's too late.

What do you mean by a rethink?

3 hours ago, Crùbag said:

As polls show the SNP on the way to a healthy majority in the Scottish Parly next year, the Herald us pushing David Icke as the new SNPbad merchant.

https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/1256341945510756352?s=20

This is class. They should give more column inches to the insane people who channel it into interesting avenues.

 

Edited May 2, 2020 by NotThePars

[NotThePars]

2 hours ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

I dont like Ross Greer but on the whole think that the greens are principled folks and despite not agreeing with every policy may give them my second vote, but it does make the first constituency vote quite difficult, would never ever vote Tory or Lie dem and Scottish Labour is poisonous, but given locally especially with how little care the SNP have afforded my constituency you’d have to question how electable any reasonable voter finds them to be. I think a competent rival to the SNP would pick up a large amount of votes.

I like a few of the Greens MSPs but think they're a bit limited beyond their public personas (Andy Wightman not included).

 

3 hours ago, renton said:

True, but the soft vote doesn't need to go anywhere, it just needs to stay at home. That was what happened in the central belt seats in 2017. Labour vote barely ticked up but they won seats because the SNP vote stayed indoors.

The margin for success is being able to form a pro Indy majority with the Greens. If the SNP + Greens are short of a majority, even as the SNP win handsomely by any other metric and there would be a real sense of failure surrounding that result.

That could be a worry but are people going to turn out for Jackson Carlaw's Scottish Conservatives and Jackie Baillie's organised Scottish Labour Party.