Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[Baxter Parp]

How did they decide who were Scots and who weren't?

Blood tests and birth certificates.

[The_Kincardine]

5 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said:

52 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said:

How did they decide who were Scots and who weren't?

Blood tests and birth certificates.

That's as sensible a reply as I'd expect.  Of course the notion that "56% Scots agree" is the sort of idiotic pap I'd expect from you.

[JMDP]

5 hours ago, The_Kincardine said:

How did they decide who were Scots and who weren't?

Glug glug glug.

Hope you're alright when you wake up you mad steamer. 

[alta-pete]

13 hours ago, oaksoft said:

People do not, never have and never will vote in a General Election on a single issue.

 

Actually I disagree. I think the very reason the SNP do so well is they have the single beacon of Independence that garners a huge proportion of their vote. No matter their performance in power or what other policies they proffer. 

[Ira Gaines]

Tories entire mantra was "Get Brexit Done" and I have no doubt that it played a big part in the General Election. In a lot of elections, one issue won't work, but right now, we're in a country where that isn't the case. Because that one issue is significant enough that it basically overshadows everything else.

[GTG_03]

9 hours ago, Mastermind said:

 

Yes, you’re right - and it happened.

 

Nice one. So we're still in the EU then? And devomax has been delivered? The Clyde must be a hive of activity building all these ships that were promised? We've got the best of both worlds and Scotland is leading this great union now?

Times must be great. 

[HTG]

1 hour ago, Willow Rosenberg said:

Tories entire mantra was "Get Brexit Done" 

In Scotland it was "send a message to Nicola - no Indyref2". They had a single track up here but not Brexit as they would have been slaughtered on that. As it turned out, their message went down like a brick and they got absolutely fucked. But 48/59 is no indication at all apparently. Absolutely undemocratic to refuse S30.

[Ira Gaines]

My point was more to do with the "one issue can't win an election" than anything else. You won't find me disagreeing with anything you said.

[HTG]

1 minute ago, Willow Rosenberg said:

My point was more to do with the "one issue can't win an election" than anything else. You won't find me disagreeing with anything you said.

Aye and you were right enough. In England it worked fine for them. In Scotland their issue took a hammering. Given the Lib Dems were pretty much on a single issue and got pumped whilst the SNP did well, it shows that you've got to tune in with the right issue. That doesn't then explain why Brexit is democracy in action whilst S30 is refused. SNP vote share was higher than Tory. It's because there is a massive democratic deficit now. 

[thisal]

23 minutes ago, Willow Rosenberg said:

My point was more to do with the "one issue can't win an election" than anything else. You won't find me disagreeing with anything you said.

I t does if you're the only party backing that issue. If the rest are split you don't need a majority. Get Brexit Done parties Tory and Brexit party got 45.6% of the vote. With the added bonus of BP not standing against sitting Tories. Labour, Libdem, SNP and Greens 50.4%. FPTP system and a compliant media hailed something the didn't get a majority of votes as a resounding mandate.

 

 

[SandyCromarty]

16 hours ago, MixuFixit said:

Is that true? I thought at the referendum if every other voter who didn't participate had voted no it would still have been yes.

 

And you have answered your question and the reason why Spain have been so obdurate and showing total disregard.

[SandyCromarty]

3 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

Is it right though? I just read it somewhere, I've not seen any numbers to confirm it to be the case.

The problems was voter turnout.

The first ref produced a yes vote of 83% with a 42% turnout.

The second produced a 90% with a 43% turnout.

Which in the Spanish Govs interpretation did not indicate a majority.

[Mastermind]

Nice one. So we're still in the EU then? And devomax has been delivered? The Clyde must be a hive of activity building all these ships that were promised? We've got the best of both worlds and Scotland is leading this great union now?
Times must be great. 

They’re certainly not bad.

[welshbairn]

22 minutes ago, Mastermind said:

 

They’re certainly not bad.

 

Given we're still in the single market and all the EU negotiated trade treaties, it's hardly surprising.

[Dunfermline Don]

Latest polls for Holyrood, it will end interesting to see if yesterday’s events change anything!

 

[GordonS]

Thought this was interesting on polling - across Europe, governing parties have had a bounce because of Covid-19. Even in Italy and Spain, where they haven't had improvements in their voter intention numbers, their approval ratings have increased.

https://europeelects.eu/2020/04/01/coronavirus-european-leaders-enjoy-surging-approval-ratings-amid-crisis/ 

[Sunrise]

1 minute ago, GordonS said:

Thought this was interesting on polling - across Europe, governing parties have had a bounce because of Covid-19. Even in Italy and Spain, where they haven't had improvements in their voter intention numbers, their approval ratings have increased.

https://europeelects.eu/2020/04/01/coronavirus-european-leaders-enjoy-surging-approval-ratings-amid-crisis/ 

Logically one could expect the Tories to see a boost in Scotland too but it hasn't happened as much?

[GordonS]

4 minutes ago, Sunrise said:

Logically one could expect the Tories to see a boost in Scotland too but it hasn't happened as much?

The bounce has gone to the SNP because they're in charge here. The most recent poll had them over 50% on the constituencies and 48% on the lists.

http://ballotbox.scot/panelbase-24th-26th-mar-2020

ETA - Tories are up in that poll too.

Edited April 1, 2020 by GordonS

[BB_Bino]

Logically one could expect the Tories to see a boost in Scotland too but it hasn't happened as much?

You’re right and I think some of that goes down to the way that Sturgeon has dealt with everything publicly. I know a few people who make no secret to the fact they loath her and what she stands for, but have been impressed with how she has acted. I’m not saying those people will now vote SNP, I doubt they will but there will be others who will.

I suspect the poll above could be closer to the truth and I suspect SNP will gain in numbers whilst Tory drop and Labour have the worst election since the Scottish Parliament was formed. I can also see the SSP and Green’s picking up (more) seats through the list vote and tactical voting to strengthen the Independence majority.

[welshbairn]

40 minutes ago, GordonS said:

Thought this was interesting on polling - across Europe, governing parties have had a bounce because of Covid-19. Even in Italy and Spain, where they haven't had improvements in their voter intention numbers, their approval ratings have increased.

https://europeelects.eu/2020/04/01/coronavirus-european-leaders-enjoy-surging-approval-ratings-amid-crisis/ 

Think there's a natural psychological reaction to a crisis that the people in charge should be left alone to handle it as best they can, and that will transfer to some extent in polling. It doesn't last long though, see Churchill as someone pointed out before.

Edited April 1, 2020 by welshbairn