Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[LongTimeLurker]

6 hours ago, DC92 said:

It would be nice if that comes to pass but those numbers seem wild.

The Yougov MRP poll had a much larger sample size, so has to be viewed as the more likely set of numbers, but won't be long until we find out. The SNP does seem to be getting more 4% numbers than 3% in GB polling unlike a week or two ago, so suspect they will be over 40 and under 50 on seats. Fingers crossed that Ruth Davidson is put in an awkward position as that might help tip things over into another hung parliament scenario.

[DC92]

6 hours ago, G-MAN said:

New Scottish Westminster poll, Survation 10-11 Dec (changes vs 18-23 Apr / vs 2017);

SNP - 46% (+5 / +9)
Con - 27% (+5 / -2)
Lab - 15% (-9 / -12)
LD - 10% (+2 / +3)
Grn - 1% (+1 / +1)
Brex - 1% (+1 / +1)
 

Turns out that these numbers are based on the GB weightings rather than Scottish ones.

Actual numbers:

SNP - 43% (+7)

Tories - 28% (-1)

Labour - 20% (-7)

Lib Dems 7% (-)

[Kyle]

That’s an incredible arse collapse for the Lib Dem’s. Even less than the UK wide average. 

[SweeperDee]

https://t.co/5EYTdJUNOk?amp=1

 

Avg. 49% Yes 51% no. MoE stuff.

 

Avg. 10% “Don’t knows” as well.

 

[Colkitto]

In a few of these marginal seats with the Tories it could come down to getting the vote out for the SNP.

Can't see Labour getting anything more than 2 or 3 seats.

Lib-dems total collapse! I can honestly see Swinson losing her seat. 

Edited December 12, 2019 by Colkitto

[Rugster]

It's a pity old Paddy's no longer about

[cyderspaceman]

13 minutes ago, Rugster said:

It's a pity old Paddy's no longer about

 

He nearly went earlier. I was once stuck in traffic after an accident involving him. 

The other guy was driving like a loony just before, overtaking dangerously.  He was the only one who died.

Quote

A driver died when he lost control of his vehicle and careered into a car carrying Paddy Ashdown and his wife, Jane, before hitting a van, an inquest heard.Mark Hurford, 49, was pronounced dead at the scene of the crash, the A356 at Turnpike Cross, Somerset, on 24 January this year. East Somerset coroner's court heard that Hurford, of Crewkerne, was more than two-and-a-half times over the alcohol limit as he drove home from work at 5pm.

 

[John Lambies Doos]

Turns out that these numbers are based on the GB weightings rather than Scottish ones.
Actual numbers:
SNP - 43% (+7)
Tories - 28% (-1)
Labour - 20% (-7)
Lib Dems 7% (-)

Swinson loses on that number. 43 percent SNP will yield 48 seats

[fatshaft]

9 hours ago, Donathan said:

Electoral calculus makes that:

 

SNP: 48

Tories: 5 (Moray, AWK and the 3 border seats)

Lib Dems: 4 (The same 4 that they currently hold)

Labour: 2 (Edinburgh South and Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath)

Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucking Bowie. I hate this guy with a passion

 

On Dec 9th I was saying -  Snp 48, tory 8, Labour 1, lib-dem 2, I'll stick with that. 

Edited December 12, 2019 by fatshaft

[Comrie]

If the SNP get between 46-49 seats it'll serve as comfort for the probable incoming Tory majority.

Edited December 12, 2019 by Comrie

[fatshaft]

1 minute ago, Comrie said:

If the SNP get between 46-49 seats it'll server as comfort for the probably incoming Tory majority.

Aye, that's the good result, 50+ is amazing, 41-45 is an expected number, 40 and under is dreadful 

[BawWatchin]

1 minute ago, Comrie said:

If the SNP get between 46-49 seats it'll server as comfort for the probably incoming Tory majority.

If they get between 51-59, Scotland gets 2 loch ness monsters.

[scottsdad]

I have been watching this horror of a campaign for weeks now and cannot believe this is where we are. of course I am voting SNP - nobody else is in the least bit credible.

Tories - Boris will win, but win badly having lied, hidden away from proper scrutiny and employed the worst fake news (I hate that term but it applies). He wins by default because, for folks in England, there is no real alternative.

Labour - like the policies, but Corbyn is a loser. Whilst a lot of folk fetishise him (students and self-proclaimed radicals mostly), a lot more cannot stand him. If they had Kier Starmer as leader Labour would be romping this. But they don't. They have Corbyn, Diane Abbott and the rest who come across as incompetent.

Lib Dems - they still don't get it. They are unforgiven. Tories will be tories, but the lib dems voted in all the rest too - trebling tuition fees, benefits cap, universal credit, NHS "reform". Their Brexit policy seems undemocratic and Swinson isn't a vote winner. 

So for me it has to be the SNP. Nicola Sturgeon is far and away better than anyone else standing here. 

[thisal]

28 minutes ago, BawWatchin said:

If they get between 51-59, Scotland gets 2 loch ness monsters.

It's highly unlikely the SNP will get more than 50 MP's. But this has generated a good bit of publicity and has got the number 50 into peoples head so that when they get the expected 45-48 the Tories will say it's a poor result for the SNP.

[Sir Tarmo Kink]

Despite what the fantasising clueless creepy b*****d students and the anti-democracy backers think, Labour will have failed yet again come tomorrow. Since the waning stages of Cameron, the Tories have been one of the weakest, most criticised governments I can remember yet Labour have failed to get anywhere near them in terms of votes. Their sole ‘victory’ being a hung parliament in 2017 where the Tories formed a coalition anyway.

The Tories will continue to rule until all three of Corbyn, Abbott and McDonnell are fucked off. 3 absolute loonballs who would put our country under grave threat. The thought of those 3 working with Ian Blackford is scary.

[Rodhull]

5 minutes ago, Sir Tarmo Kink said:

The Tories will continue to rule until all three of Corbyn, Abbott and McDonnell are fucked off. 3 absolute loonballs who would put our country under grave threat. The thought of those 3 working with Ian Blackford is scary.

 No doubt but then we’ll be left with a racist, homophobe in charge that you seem strangely fine about and who’ll put the country under threat by going for a hard brexit that’ll f**k the country for years to come.

Only silver lining is that having the racist, homophobe in charge might finally wake some people up and allow Scotland to escape the toilet bowl of intolerance the UK is about to become.

[dorlomin]

I have discovered what the French word for "minter" is

 

[Baxter Parp]

I have discovered what the French word for "minter" is
 

Means liar for all you Google translate fans.

[JMDP]

You have to feel for old Tarmo. Had an absolute Swinson of a campaign on here. 

 

[Sir Tarmo Kink]

You have to feel for old Tarmo. Had an absolute Swinson of a campaign on here. 
 

We’ll see who gets the majority [emoji6]

I’ll give you a hint Atletico Rab, it will be the blue party.