Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[G-MAN]

He does seem like a relatively good MP but this isn’t based on any in-depth knowledge and he certainly won’t be focusing his campaign on the wee middle class island I live in (nor should he tbf). 

Paul Sweeney is a good MP ?

Do some research on his wankfest over London.

Do some research on his views about poor, little, incapable Scotland.

He’s a c**t.

[alta-pete]

Labour will gain more than 2 seats imo. I expect them to gain more like 10. There is some low hanging fruit after 2017. The mood music is changing. I now believe we will hold my constituency of Bedford which has a majority of 1,000.  Corbyn coming for eve of poll rally tomorrow night will push us over the line. If we are holding these type of seats there will be more than 2 gains imo.

Ffs. A 2 seat gain for Labour is being painted as a good result for them? Shirley not srs?

[Alan Stubbs]

Getting just close enough to provide some optimism before the gammons come out in force and give Johnson a massive majority nap.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Getting just close enough to provide some optimism before the gammons come out in force and give Johnson a massive majority nap.

Not so sure right now - Johnson and Hancock have had a dreadful few days - Cummings Black Ops attempts at smearing the opposition and the parent of child looks like they have seriously backfired.

I genuinely believe that things might at last be swinging against them.

[Bedford White]

11 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Not so sure right now - Johnson and Hancock have had a dreadful few days - Cummings Black Ops attempts at smearing the opposition and the parent of child looks like they have seriously backfired.

I genuinely believe that things might at last be swinging against them.

It certainly is. Yougov MRP was showing a majority of 50 yesterday. Today 28.

[The OP]

1 hour ago, G-MAN said:

 

Paul Sweeney is a good MP ?

Do some research on his wankfest over London.

Do some research on his views about poor, little, incapable Scotland.

He’s a c**t.

 

Sorry I am talking about what he does for his constituents rather than one comment about London’s contribution to the UK economy.

[alta-pete]

5 hours ago, John Lambies Doos said:

5 hours ago, alta-pete said:

Some amount of polarised party loyal nonsense of late.
 
A majority of SNP MPs is not a mandate for Independence - it’s c.35% of the Scottish electorate. Part of the joy of the FPTP system, ‘winning’ does not equal completely vanquishing the opposing view.
 
In the event of a hung parliament and SNP holding some semblance of power, the Westminster deal really should be they get indyref2 in 2020. No chance they’ll win and the issue will finally be put to bed for a very very long time.
 
And in the unlikely event that they do win, it’ll then be called as a 1-1 draw and then we all traipse on to the decider.
 
All the while our leaders fiddle as Rome burns.
 

By that logic then Brexit was only wanted by 38% of the electorate.

No, Brexit was across the UK as a single vote, a straight LEAVE/REMAIN (or YES/NO if you will, much as we had in 2014). The apathetic and those that chose not to vote I think you can take as having forfeited their right to a hindsight opinion or were sufficiently relaxed to allow the status quo to continue. 

The point I was, maybe clumsily, trying to make was that 35% of the Scottish voting population will deliver somewhere around 45 or maybe 50 of the 60 available Scottish Westminster seats as SNP MPs. Many of the SNP (and I think The Party leadership themselves) spin that c.80% return on available seats as an overwhelming mandate for Indyref2.

My own view, based on those sorts of numbers, however it skews the number of evental elected representatives, and when dialled back to a binary choice, disagrees. 

 

[fatshaft]

19 hours ago, John Lambies Doos said:

I've got money riding on labour taking that one.
Is the big MRP poll being updated tonight?

I maxed out on Laird as well, but with campaigning if anything intensified by local activists, I bottled out and was able to put a saver break-even bet on Hanvey as the odds have almost completely reversed. Still a 3 figure win if Laird comes in 

[Dundee Hibernian]

14 hours ago, MixuFixit said:

What relevance does any of that have to the facts of the Hanvey case?

 

I'll be help you out. It has none because by any lay definition of antisemitism let alone the IHRA one (the only one relevant here vis the SNP conduct infraction made by Hanvey) what Hanvey did was antisemitic. Away and do something more important and stop trying to imply he was set up.

 

I've not mentioned Hanvey as far as I recall. Not the SNP. 

However, political parties adopting the IHRA working definition of antisemitism appear to forget guidance applied by the IHRA to their own definition, viz "However, criticism of Israel similar to that leveled against any other country cannot be regarded as antisemitic."

Here are two views of application of the IHRA definition, from Jewish and Palestinian perspectives:

https://www.jewishvoiceforlabour.org.uk/article/why-the-man-who-drafted-the-ihra-definition-condemns-its-use/

https://www.sabeel-kairos.org.uk/the-question-of-antisemitism/

For what it's worth, there doesn't seem to be much divergence there.

The 'more important' task was going to a football match. 

[Dundee Hibernian]

4 hours ago, MixuFixit said:

I was talking to someone else about what Hanvey did vis the party's adoption of IHRA definition and you started talking to me about it. If you weren't talking about Hanvey in particular I don't know why you started talking to me.

The merits of revising IHRA is a totally separate issue to the application of SNP policy on the matter as it exists today to what Hanvey did.

I posted quoting you, noting a post you'd made to another poster which only stated "Not the IHRA definition" : neither of you were mentioning Hanvey.

I couldn't give two fucks whether Hanvey is rejected of accepted by the SNP at a later date, it's none of my business or concern.

The reason, using your words, that I 'started talking to you' was because of your simple four word post: "Not the IHRA definition". Thereafter I was trying to provide clarity regarding Kenneth S. Stern's work and intentions.

[John Lambies Doos]

Are we expecting any last ditch polling being released tonight?

[dorlomin]

3 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

Are we expecting any last ditch polling being released tonight?

 

IPSOS Mori has another due I think. Those who collate such things will have last round ups of polls. 

For the most part the numbers are steady, it depends on the youth turn out and on the degree to which tactical vote in constituencies is will allow certain parties to out perform universal national swing. Boris' bollox seems to have cut through to Brexit voters while Labour and the Lib Dems seems to have been running campaigns designed by idiots. 

 

Oh one last over view of leadership:

 

[dorlomin]

As for tidying up the last from Panelbase and BMG. Again no change. Still IPSOS Mori to come. 

 

[John Lambies Doos]

As for tidying up the last from Panelbase and BMG. Again no change. Still IPSOS Mori to come. 
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Panelbase had a 8 point lead for the Torys on eve of 2017 election, this one is a 9 point lead. I'm assuming the methodology has changed on this one ie it's not underestimating the youth vote? I'm sure they will have learned their lesson.. if so this is grim reading. Although on a uniform swing I'd suggest Swinson loses her seat. Every cloud....

[dorlomin]

ComRes has us with a Tory majority of 6 on uniform swing. Things may be tight enough that the toss ups in Norn Irn may come into play. DUP do not want the current Boris deal and most Labour leave rebels are out the equation. 

Of some interest, women show the greatest Labour lean and the greatest "dont know". 

Couple of more polls to come apparently. 

[John Lambies Doos]

ComRes has us with a Tory majority of 6 on uniform swing. Things may be tight enough that the toss ups in Norn Irn may come into play. DUP do not want the current Boris deal and most Labour leave rebels are out the equation. 
Of some interest, women show the greatest Labour lean and the greatest "dont know". 
Couple of more polls to come apparently. 

Although 326 is the finish line it's really only around 320?? When you exclude the speaker (labour) and the shinners

[mizfit]

P&K council stating people must take ID to vote tomorrow.

[jamamafegan]

P&K council stating people must take ID to vote tomorrow.

Nah you don’t.

[Crùbag]

Incredible that the Tories look like getting 40% or more. What do they  need to do to lose votes? Shows how many sociopaths walk among us.

[Dundee Hibernian]

3 hours ago, MixuFixit said:

Wrong. From the post I was replying to:


 

Dearie me, you're hard work. How would I know what person 'he' refers to in another person's post which was non specific? I've no interest in the other person's post, and was replying to your simple post, "Not the IHRA definition."

 I doubt if you have much understanding of the purpose of the IHRA definition. But you can reply 'Wrong' as is your style, I don't mind.

 

Remember, use your vote sensibly.