Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[Sir Tarmo Kink]

And how do the public indicate they want it, if not by returning a majority of MSPs that support the position? Will the SNP winning the majority of the seats they stand in at the General Election indicate it?

Having a majority of MSPs that want it doesn’t mandate it. If you think this then you’re pretty clueless. The public don’t vote their MSPs and MPs in based on the sole issue of independence.

Until polls indicate that a majority of the Scottish public want independence, then indyref2 should not happen. It really is tantrum-filled desperation from the losing side once again here, just like with Brexit.

[DublinMagyar]

Stop replying to this fucking Yoon walloper. 
Please. 

First it was Malky, now this Tarmo fella sinking out the politics forum.

Thursday night and Friday are going to be painful reading here

[carpetmonster]

Just now, Sir Tarmo Kink said:

 

Having a majority of MSPs that want it doesn’t mandate it. If you think this then you’re pretty clueless. The public don’t vote their MSPs and MPs in based on the sole issue of independence.

Until polls indicate that a majority of the Scottish public want independence, then indyref2 should not happen. It really is tantrum-filled desperation from the losing side once again here, just like with Brexit.

 

So opinion polls are more important than votes then? I think Hedgecutter put that to you a couple of pages ago and you didn't answer. 

[Sir Tarmo Kink]

So opinion polls are more important than votes then? I think Hedgecutter put that to you a couple of pages ago and you didn't answer. 

 

I don’t believe he did.

 

The only ‘votes’ we’ve had on independence returned a 55% No vote which you seem to want to completey ignore.

 

Current polls indicate that indyref2 would provide a similar result. So no, opinion polls are not more important than votes, but they both return the same outcome on this issue.

 

I get that you think you’re really smart here, but you and many other Nats on this site provide precisely the ignorant, arrogant, undemocratic attitude that likely returned the No vote in 2014. The same would likely happen again.

 

[BFTD]

3 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said:

Stop replying to this fucking Yoon walloper. 

Please. 

I cannot believe some folk haven't realised he's winding them up. He'll be claiming Corbyn invented Communism in the Seventies next at this rate. Or Thatcher implemented the welfare state to care for the striking miners. That's the level of pisstaking we're approaching.

(you can have them for free, m9 - best of luck)

[carpetmonster]

2 minutes ago, BigFatTabbyDave said:

I cannot believe some folk haven't realised he's winding them up. He'll be claiming Corbyn invented Communism in the Seventies next at this rate. Or Thatcher implemented the welfare state to care for the striking miners. That's the level of pisstaking we're approaching.

(you can have them for free, m9 - best of luck)

Maybe I'm just naive. If he's not a walloper, he's only pretending to be a walloper on the internet, what does anyone gain from that? All anyone's gonna think is that he's a walloper. 

[alta-pete]

Some amount of polarised party loyal nonsense of late.

 

A majority of SNP MPs is not a mandate for Independence - it’s c.35% of the Scottish electorate. Part of the joy of the FPTP system, ‘winning’ does not equal completely vanquishing the opposing view.

 

In the event of a hung parliament and SNP holding some semblance of power, the Westminster deal really should be they get indyref2 in 2020. No chance they’ll win and the issue will finally be put to bed for a very very long time.

 

And in the unlikely event that they do win, it’ll then be called as a 1-1 draw and then we all traipse on to the decider.

 

All the while our leaders fiddle as Rome burns.

 

[carpetmonster]

5 minutes ago, Sir Tarmo Kink said:

 

 

 

Current polls indicate that indyref2 would provide a similar result. So no, opinion polls are not more important than votes, but they both return the same outcome on this issue.

 

 

But they don't; the votes returned a majority of pro-Independence MPs. If opinion polls were this reliable, someone should tell Bill and Ted to go say something to Neil Kinnock. 

[Crùbag]

Slavering Labour trougher Lord Foulkes gets taken in by Britain Erects fake poll...

 

Edited December 10, 2019 by Crùbag

[BFTD]

1 minute ago, carpetmonster said:

Maybe I'm just naive. If he's not a walloper, he's only pretending to be a walloper on the internet, what does anyone gain from that? All anyone's gonna think is that he's a walloper. 

Don't think too hard about why people do things on the internet, for God's sake. There are people who post pictures of themselves with corn husks inserted into their rectums. Compared to that, fishing for bites seems positively sane, reasonable behaviour.

[dorlomin]

42 minutes ago, sophia said:

I was hoping for some sexy polling data but alas, several pages and more and nothing to trouble myself over

10ish tonight, the last of the big YouGov MRP's come out. Though you will likely need to catch up on Britain Elects twitter feed as this thread is now panto season. 

[Crùbag]

4 minutes ago, alta-pete said:

Some amount of polarised party loyal nonsense of late.

A majority of SNP MPs is not a mandate for Independence - it’s c.35% of the electorate. Part of the joy of the FPTP system, ‘winning’ does not equal completely vanquishing the opposing view.

In the event of a hung parliament and SNP holding some semblance of power, the Westminster deal really should be they get indyref2 in 2020. No chance they’ll win and the issue will finally be put to bed for a very very long time.

And in the unlikely event that they do win, it’ll then be called as a 1-1 draw and then we all traipse on to the decider.

All the while our leaders fiddle as Rome burns.

Goalposts keep moving north as the pro-Indy vote goes up. First, a majority of SNPs at Westminster according Thatcher and generally agreed upon for years, conveniently when the SNP number was only 6 and pro-Indy sentiments at 20% or so. Then it was 50% plus one in a referendum. Now, they want to raise it 60% or thereabouts.

Arses knittin socks.

[carpetmonster]

2 minutes ago, BigFatTabbyDave said:

Don't think too hard about why people do things on the internet, for God's sake. There are people who post pictures of themselves with corn husks inserted into their rectums. Compared to that, fishing for bites seems positively sane, reasonable behaviour.

Unless they're selling the end results as tamales and not disclosing the filling's made of poop, it's way more admirable than whatever this is. 

[BFTD]

2 minutes ago, carpetmonster said:

Unless they're selling the end results as tamales and not disclosing the filling's made of poop, it's way more admirable than whatever this is. 

Hey, each to their own, man.

Also, hit me up for pics  

[John Lambies Doos]

Some amount of polarised party loyal nonsense of late.
 
A majority of SNP MPs is not a mandate for Independence - it’s c.35% of the Scottish electorate. Part of the joy of the FPTP system, ‘winning’ does not equal completely vanquishing the opposing view.
 
In the event of a hung parliament and SNP holding some semblance of power, the Westminster deal really should be they get indyref2 in 2020. No chance they’ll win and the issue will finally be put to bed for a very very long time.
 
And in the unlikely event that they do win, it’ll then be called as a 1-1 draw and then we all traipse on to the decider.
 
All the while our leaders fiddle as Rome burns.
 

By that logic then Brexit was only wanted by 38% of the electorate.

[John Lambies Doos]

Slavering Labour trougher Lord Foulkes gets taken in by Britain Erects fake poll...
 

There is a man I really cant stand

[Kyle]

 

The raw data is on twitter. This is starting to look doable now. I still think the SNP will end up with more than the 41 noted (MRP has labour holding Coatbridge as an example and I just can’t see that happening) but we’re not far off hung parliament territory and now people will have a better idea of who to vote for if they plan to do so tactically to keep the tories out. 
 

again, it’s the hope that kills you. 
 

edit: this is an unexpected treat - apparently the YouGov one is separate and comes out at 10pm. No doubt to pish on my chips and will show a Tory majority of 150. 

Edited December 10, 2019 by Kyle

[John Lambies Doos]

 
The raw data is on twitter. This is starting to look doable now. I still think the SNP will end up with more than the 41 noted (MRP has labour holding Coatbridge as an example and I just can’t see that happening) but we’re not far off hung parliament territory and now people will have a better idea of who to vote for if they plan to do so tactically to keep the tories out. 
 
again, it’s the hope that kills you. 
 
edit: this is an unexpected treat - apparently the YouGov one is separate and comes out at 10pm. No doubt to pish on my chips and will show a Tory majority of 150. 

What's the sample size on this one and over how many days?
What's the sample size on the you gov one at 10?

[Sunrise]

14 minutes ago, Kyle said:

 

The raw data is on twitter. This is starting to look doable now. I still think the SNP will end up with more than the 41 noted (MRP has labour holding Coatbridge as an example and I just can’t see that happening) but we’re not far off hung parliament territory and now people will have a better idea of who to vote for if they plan to do so tactically to keep the tories out. 
 

again, it’s the hope that kills you. 
 

edit: this is an unexpected treat - apparently the YouGov one is separate and comes out at 10pm. No doubt to pish on my chips and will show a Tory majority of 150. 

Considering how anxious I am about the election, I'd take 41 tbh.

[dorlomin]

Folcadatas MRP suggest 40ish Tory majority the most likely outcome. 

Nothing exciting really.