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Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence


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The pollsters are all over the place. Only certainty seems to be that the Tories will be the largest party but whether they get a majority or not is very much still in the balance.


It's the hope that kills you. Well, either that or Tory austerity.

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I suspect tactical voting will cost the Tories their majority now. Hopefully.

My gut feeling  is the group of voters that the Tories 'Get Brexit Done' slogan alienates the most (ages 18-34) is also the group most likely to not have a problem switching their vote. 

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Guest Bob Mahelp
16 hours ago, dorlomin said:

 

Some seem to be already kicking into recriminations and deflection mode at a Labour loss. :rolleyes: Confidence eh. 

That shouldn't take too long when/if Labour lose badly.

'Corbyn is completely unfit to lead a major party and is not seen as Prime Minister by the majority of voters in the UK. His incompetence has allowed the most right-wing government in UK history to grab power, despite being  led by a dishonest liar'.

That's Labour's post-mortem done for them. 

 

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The Tory vote seems to be holding up - if it does, then we're looking at low 40's in seats for the SNP.

Tories could keep most and they seem confident of taking Lanark & Hamilton East.

Labour look like a wipe out apart from Ian Murray in Edinburgh. SNP need to take all these seats.

Libs not doing great either and they'll lose seats too. Swinson on a very shoogley peg. Think she will scrape it but she's up against a hard working SNP candidate who may well pull off a shock.

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41 minutes ago, Kyle said:

Surely labour will hang on in Kirkcaldy as well, given the widely reported suspension of the SNP candidate.

Depends on how far Labour vote has went down. 

Havney still seems like a popular candidate. I think he'll take the seat

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Depends on how far Labour vote has went down. 
Havney still seems like a popular candidate. I think he'll take the seat



Hanvey isn’t taking the seat. What you’ve got to remember is there’s no campaigning at all from the SNP. No local activists rounding up local known floating voters/supporters to help them take the seat. Meanwhile Labour will be putting all of their local eggs in that basket, especially given that Laird is the would-be Scottish secretary.

Labour will get that seat on an easy majority (bigger majority than Murray in Edinburgh South this time IMO)
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Hanvey isn’t taking the seat. What you’ve got to remember is there’s no campaigning at all from the SNP. No local activists rounding up local known floating voters/supporters to help them take the seat. Meanwhile Labour will be putting all of their local eggs in that basket, especially given that Laird is the would-be Scottish secretary.

Labour will get that seat on an easy majority (bigger majority than Murray in Edinburgh South this time IMO)


There are still plenty people posting leaflets, which are printed in SNP colours with pro-independence slogans so evidently have been independently funded since his ban. He might not have official SNP support but there’s still people campaigning for him.

I reckon Hanvey will win but it’s hard to know with any certainty. A wild seat over the past few elections really - a 23k majority for Gordon Brown in 2010, a complete change to a 10,000 SNP majority in 2015, before Labour took the seat back in 2017 with less votes than they managed in 2015. The SNP vote either didn’t show up or moved Tory.
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1 hour ago, Donathan said:

 

 


Hanvey isn’t taking the seat. What you’ve got to remember is there’s no campaigning at all from the SNP. No local activists rounding up local known floating voters/supporters to help them take the seat. Meanwhile Labour will be putting all of their local eggs in that basket, especially given that Laird is the would-be Scottish secretary.

Labour will get that seat on an easy majority (bigger majority than Murray in Edinburgh South this time IMO)

 

 

I'm sure we'll find out very shortly....

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8 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

I've got money riding on labour taking that one.
Is the big MRP poll being updated tonight?

Tonight at 10pm.

We can then assess the damage and, hopefully, it'll give tactical voters the focus required to oust as many tories as possible.

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Anything below 45 seats for the SNP will be poor. The Tory vote will be strong up here from the Yoons. It's just case of how many people come out backing the SNP in the hope of getting the Tories out. 

Is Hanvey still standing as an Independent in Kirkcaldy? You would like to think the SNP voters would back the Greens with this one, but this will pretty much hand Kirkcaldy to Labour. 

 

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4 minutes ago, DAFC. said:

Anything below 45 seats for the SNP will be poor. The Tory vote will be strong up here from the Yoons. It's just case of how many people come out backing the SNP in the hope of getting the Tories out. 

Is Hanvey still standing as an Independent in Kirkcaldy? You would like to think the SNP voters would back the Greens with this one, but this will pretty much hand Kirkcaldy to Labour. 

 

 

1 minute ago, BawWatchin said:

I'd be backing Hanvey 100% in that constituency.

There in lies the problem I think. Some will move over to the greens, others will back Hanvey and others will no doubt stay at home. Labour will most likely hold unless their vote collapses entirely.

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6 minutes ago, Kyle said:

There in lies the problem I think. Some will move over to the greens, others will back Hanvey and others will no doubt stay at home. Labour will most likely hold unless their vote collapses entirely.

I don't see any SNP supporters abandonning Hanvey tbh. Despite the MSMs best efforts. In fact, I reckon the whole fiasco will motivate an even higher turn out for him.

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