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Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence


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Bookies constituency betting has us on 45 seats.

 

There are 6 more where we are Evens or less, almost neck and neck with the favourites.

 

The hugely effective, purveyor of high intelligence and one of the most honest MPs I’ve ever seen, Kirstene “Einstein” Hair has fallen into second place in Angus.

 

Made my night. 🤞🤞🤞

 

 

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4 minutes ago, G-MAN said:

The hugely effective, purveyor of high intelligence and one of the most honest MPs I’ve ever seen, Kirstene “Einstein” Hair has fallen into second place in Angus

Made my night. 🤞🤞🤞

 

I have a nagging feeling she'll slither in by less than a 1000 votes. She's a complete cretin and hopefully her comments about Healthcare in Angus cost her dearly. She also has another hustings coming up in Kirriemuir where she will most likely make a total c**t of herself. The SNP candidate seems a good guy and has done shitloads of canvassing. Hair has done little other than pal about with farmers and drag Theresa May round the posher parts of a couple of Angus towns. 

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4 hours ago, Sunrise said:

 

 


Better for the SNP.

 

Brexit Party and Johnson’s Tories are identical so no surprise with that move.  

People abandoning the Greens as they realise it’s a waste of s vote under FPTP.

As for the LibDem impetuous under Swinson, judge for yourselves.

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13 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

...and catastrophic for Labour. Would they even still hold Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath against the disavowed paper candidate for the SNP on those numbers?

On a uniform swing, Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath will be getting an independent masquarading as an SNP MP. You have to think labour will hang on though.

 

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Guest Bob Mahelp
7 hours ago, Sunrise said:

 

 


Better for the SNP.

 

I'm not sure that is better for the SNP. 

The Brexit party supporters have hardened behind the Tories, and that could well be enough to hold off the SNP in seats the SNP were hoping to take.  If the Tories are able to hold on to even 6 or 7 seats in Scotland, it'll be a poor night for anyone who isn't a raving right-wing nutcase.

What this poll does confirm is the UK-wide trend of smaller parties...the Greens, Brexit party and even LibDems....losing support to either the Tories or Labour (and in Scotland's case, the SNP). 

 

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4 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said:

I'm not sure that is better for the SNP. 

The Brexit party supporters have hardened behind the Tories, and that could well be enough to hold off the SNP in seats the SNP were hoping to take.  If the Tories are able to hold on to even 6 or 7 seats in Scotland, it'll be a poor night for anyone who isn't a raving right-wing nutcase.

What this poll does confirm is the UK-wide trend of smaller parties...the Greens, Brexit party and even LibDems....losing support to either the Tories or Labour (and in Scotland's case, the SNP). 

 

The hardening behind the tories can't be unexpected. Scotland has its share of arseholes. A smaller share of arseholes than places like Grimsby but a share nonetheless. They're running their own wee Indyref and the red in the flag is way more important to them than they are to the red. 

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The use of better didn't imply optimal. Those numbers would definitely be better for the SNP than the 2017 general election outcome. A lot depends on whether tactical voting is going to be mainly anti-SNP or anti-Tory on how the marginals will pan out this time. The Tories might be piling on voters in central belt constituencies where they have no chance rather than in their areas of strength.

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10 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

The use of better didn't imply optimal. Those numbers would definitely be better for the SNP than the 2017 general election outcome. A lot depends on whether tactical voting is going to be mainly anti-SNP or anti-Tory on how the marginals will pan out this time. The Tories might be piling on voters in central belt constituencies where they have no chance rather than in their areas of strength.

I think the opposite is likely to be happening to be honest. They'll be piling on votes in areas that voted most strongly for Brexit - the North East and the Borders. It makes the seats in the central belt a bit more vulernable but probably pushes the likes of Moray/Banff and Buchan completely out of reach.

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The breakdowns in the Ipsos-Mori poll are worth a look:

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2019-11/ipsos-mori-scotland-election-2019-pm-tables.pdf

For example, in Glasgow they predict amongst registered voters 18+ and 9or10/10 certain to vote:

SNP 39, Tories 27, Lab 20, LDem 10, Greens  3, Brexit 0 [undecided 10, Refused 1]

while in NE Scotland they have:

SNP 50, Tories 30, LDem 10, Lab 6, Greens 2 [undecided 6, Refused 3]

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