Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[HTG]

34 minutes ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

I'll admit it, Tarmo has done me there. It's clearly a parody with the CAPS and the magic money tree stuff and the fact around half of that stuff is devolved. 

I mean, nobody is that thick. Well played Mr Kink sir.

Nah, it's Snafu without the coloured font.

[Detournement]

12 hours ago, sparky88 said:

I would be highly sceptical of the MRP. When you look at the constituency MRP results from Scotland in 2017  the model still massively over predicted how well SNP would do and entirely missed Labour taking seats from SNP.

Midlothian, for example. SNP predicted to get 40% of the vote to labour's 28% in 2017. In other words, way out as labour took seat with 36%. 

Looks to me like it was actually pretty lucky to stumble on broadly the right result in 2017

I agree that it's probably not accurate on a seat by seat basis. It seems to work in America because they can factor in race, smaller turnout and a more economically segregated population. Also no tactical voting.

It's probably even less accurate in Scotland than England due to our seats being more economically diverse and the extra tactical voting. 

(Plus Yougov are Tory Wanks)

 

 

[Colkitto]

Yes holding at 50%.  No wonder the yoons don't want indyref2 

If the SNP can push the Westminster vote to at least 46% it could have the same domino effect of seats as they managed in the 2015 election

 

[doulikefish]

Polls mean nothing we need to get the vote out

[Sir Tarmo Kink]

in this election?  are these not all more or less devolved?  how would they actually do that from Westminster?

We need to get Brexit done mate

[BawWatchin]

[BawWatchin]

6 tory seats though (excluding the 4 orange ones and the independent)

Can we just cut everything bellow Glasgow after independence?

[Kejan]

55 minutes ago, doulikefish said:

Polls mean nothing we need to get the vote out

Agree.

The MORI one is a good one for the SNP ; but I'm sure the same company for STV  had a similarly good one a week or so  before the 2017 vote - SNP still in 50s for seats etc - and we all know what happened.

SNP on the day polled 37% and most polls had over polled them at 40-45% in 2017. There's no Brexit Party in any of the 13 Tory seats.

I think even in places like Moray - UKIP standing - or Ochill and Perth - Brexit Party - those few hundred votes that go their way could well decide if the SNP win.

 

[Gordon EF]

19 minutes ago, BawWatchin said:

6 tory seats though (excluding the 4 orange ones and the independent)

Can we just cut everything bellow Glasgow after independence?

Why wait?

[Granny Danger]

There is not much to look forward to from the various forecasts; I’ve resigned myself to a right-wing majority Tory Government.

Some crumbs of comfort are the likely increase in SNP seats, Labour getting near decimated in Scotland (again), all the change U.K. MPs, including those who have moved on to the LibDems, under serious threat and a similar serious threat of losing their seats for a bunch of right wing Labourites who supported Johnson’s deal.

 

[dorlomin]

People need to vote tactically to stop Brexit, especially as the Tories official policy is to be out by the end of 2020. That would likely mean reverting to no deal. 

A well managed Brexit would be a drag on growth. No deal could be a disaster. 

Vote tactically or accept that our fate will be purely in the hands of Boris and his ego. 

[Elixir]

22 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

People need to vote tactically to stop Brexit, especially as the Tories official policy is to be out by the end of 2020. That would likely mean reverting to no deal. 

A well managed Brexit would be a drag on growth. No deal could be a disaster. 

Vote tactically or accept that our fate will be purely in the hands of Boris and his ego. 

So vote SNP, basically?

[dorlomin]

2 minutes ago, Elixir said:

So vote SNP, basically?

In most cases yes. Though I would not object, in fact would be delighted if the pro remain parties in Scotland formed an informal pact. But I fear divisions over IndyRef and tribalism will not allow it. 

We are headed towards a cliff edge. I hope people across the country vote for the good of our long term future and not with past grudges. 

[BawWatchin]

4 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

In most cases yes. Though I would not object, in fact would be delighted if the pro remain parties in Scotland formed an informal pact. But I fear divisions over IndyRef and tribalism will not allow it. 

We are headed towards a cliff edge. I hope people across the country vote for the good of our long term future and not with past grudges. 

Well it can't be the Lib Dems.... because, eh, well. They'll just jump into bed with them again, or cheer them on from the sidelines while they flog off the NHS.

and Ian Murray is fat wee p***k who pretends to have nothing to do with Labour these days. His day of reckoning isn't all that far away.

[Elixir]

14 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

In most cases yes. Though I would not object, in fact would be delighted if the pro remain parties in Scotland formed an informal pact. But I fear divisions over IndyRef and tribalism will not allow it. 

We are headed towards a cliff edge. I hope people across the country vote for the good of our long term future and not with past grudges. 

Of course, whether or not Scotland remained or was removed from the EU was never our choice to make.

[Kyle]

 

The gap is definitely starting to tighten. Bit more of a squeaze of lib dem votes to labour would be lovely - we're not far off hung parliament territory with those numbers.

 

[Crùbag]

I despise this utter cnut. How can anyone with any kind of morality vote for this charlatan and liar?

 

[LongTimeLurker]

2 hours ago, Kyle said:

 

The gap is definitely starting to tighten. Bit more of a squeaze of lib dem votes to labour would be lovely - we're not far off hung parliament territory with those numbers.

 

Let's see what the weekend brings. Have seen it argued that the midweek polls tend to have methodologies that favour Labour while the weekend ones tend to favour the Tories.

Edited November 29, 2019 by LongTimeLurker

[welshbairn]

6 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Let's see what the weekend brings. Have seen it argued that the midweek polls have a methodology that favours Labour while the weekend ones favour the Tories.

Word from the Guardian's polling expert.

Quote

In my view, it is best to focus on the polls taken in the last three-four days before an election, and ignore 14-day rolling averages – and look for any evolution in the trend. The late move is the one that counts.

 

[Kyle]

7 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Word from the Guardian's polling expert.

 

I agree largely but polls showing a momentum shift in your favour can motivate your supporters and activists which is exactly what labour and the remain parties need right now, given the wall to wall predictions of a huge tory majority.