Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[Kejan]

6 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

10 minutes ago, Kejan said:

New ComRes out as wel
 
CON: 41% (-1)
LAB: 34% (+2)
LDEM: 13% (-2)
BREX: 5% (-)
GRN: 2% (-) via
  25 - 26 Nov fieldwork.

Labour closing gap. Pleasing

Aye, how sweet would it be if the Tories had the most seats but not a majority and no one to support them. The Labour end up as a minority government with support from SNP.

Hopefully a few more votes shed off LD to Labour in the next few weeks.

[Kejan]

https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2019/

SNP on 43 in that MRP poll, but they are a baw hair (1-3%) from winning : Angus, Ochill, Gordon, East Renfrew, Coatbridge, Edinburgh West, Aberdeen South.

We've still got two weeks to go, but certainly anything all to play for in loads of areas (if going by this).

Swinson's on 38% and the SNP on 33%.

Edited November 27, 2019 by Kejan

[Im_Rodger]

My constituency has a chance of turning Blue.
Never thought I’d see the day.

[Wee Bully]

Pish.

Tell me why

[Donathan]

My constituency has a chance of turning Blue.
Never thought I’d see the day.

Only lost by 266 votes last time. In fact the top 3 were within 460 votes of one another. A genuine 3-way marginal.

[sparky88]

I would be highly sceptical of the MRP. When you look at the constituency MRP results from Scotland in 2017  the model still massively over predicted how well SNP would do and entirely missed Labour taking seats from SNP.

Midlothian, for example. SNP predicted to get 40% of the vote to labour's 28% in 2017. In other words, way out as labour took seat with 36%. 

Looks to me like it was actually pretty lucky to stumble on broadly the right result in 2017

Edited November 28, 2019 by sparky88

[John Lambies Doos]

My constituency has a chance of turning Blue.
Never thought I’d see the day.

Tactical voting would get you over the line there rog

[eez-eh]

People treating the polls like gospel despite the fact they’ve gotten very little right the past few votes.

They got it wildly wrong two and a half years ago, and there’s been suggestions that they’re still working off a very low youth turnout. If young people vote in the same numbers as they did in 2017 then I think there’s a bit of hope that they’ll be wide of the mark again.

[John Lambies Doos]

People treating the polls like gospel despite the fact they’ve gotten very little right the past few votes.
They got it wildly wrong two and a half years ago, and there’s been suggestions that they’re still working off a very low youth turnout. If young people vote in the same numbers as they did in 2017 then I think there’s a bit of hope that they’ll be wide of the mark again.

This poll was the only one that predicted a hung parliament 2 years ago, when others were showing a 12 point lead for Tory's. It's 100,000 people and was laughed at 2 yrs ago. I appreciate polls can be shite and yes this could be way off but based on 2yrs ago people are taking this one a bit more seriously

[NotThePars]

Ooft. defensive much?

Edited to add: you appear to have detected some hostility in my post which wasn't there. I'm basing my response on recent conversations with a pollster who has been quoted elsewhere on this thread.

 

Polls and graphs are all he’s got mate and Henderson to Deliver has already taken graphs off of him. That explains the hostility.

[Sir Tarmo Kink]

My constituency has a chance of turning Blue.
Never thought I’d see the day.

Genuinely beautiful stuff.

- No indyref2
- No sneaky tactics like other parties to back out of what the people voted for (Brexit)
- No second Brexit vote, we’ve already had one and the sore losers can’t take it
- GETTING BREXIT DONE
- Being clear on all the above issues, no ifs buts and maybes like Labour
- No NI or VAT increase
- Proposal Australian points system for immigration
- No crackpot money tree plans
- Increasing mental health awareness in Scottish schools
- Increasing sporting activities in Scottish schools, no fat bassas going to the chippy at lunchtime
- Introducing LIFE SENTENCES THAT MEAN LIFE aka like in America. If you murder, rape or do anything to a child YOU SHOULD NEVER BE RELEASED!
- Refresh the woeful Curriculum for Excellence
- Raising the Living Wage
- Building new towns across Scotland
- Net-zero emissions in Scotland by 2050
- Investing heavily in walking/cycling paths as well as boosting funding for road repairs/upgrades
- Not nationalising the railway, it’s brutal enough as it is
- Actually being a democratic party, other 3 main parties want to stop Brexit which = undemocratic
- Keeping the voting age at 18, under 18s are clueless and most 18-21 are bandwagon studenty-type idiots that believe media soundbites like TORIES ARE KILLING NHS WORKERS!!!!

Only one way to vote folks, the Conservatives are the only backable party in this election.

[D Angelo Barksdale]

[Big Rider]

11 minutes ago, Tarmo Kink said:

 

Genuinely beautiful stuff.

- No indyref2
- No sneaky tactics like other parties to back out of what the people voted for (Brexit)
- No second Brexit vote, we’ve already had one and the sore losers can’t take it
- GETTING BREXIT DONE
- Being clear on all the above issues, no ifs buts and maybes like Labour
- No NI or VAT increase
- Proposal Australian points system for immigration
- No crackpot money tree plans
- Increasing mental health awareness in Scottish schools
- Increasing sporting activities in Scottish schools, no fat bassas going to the chippy at lunchtime
- Introducing LIFE SENTENCES THAT MEAN LIFE aka like in America. If you murder, rape or do anything to a child YOU SHOULD NEVER BE RELEASED!
- Refresh the woeful Curriculum for Excellence
- Raising the Living Wage
- Building new towns across Scotland
- Net-zero emissions in Scotland by 2050
- Investing heavily in walking/cycling paths as well as boosting funding for road repairs/upgrades
- Not nationalising the railway, it’s brutal enough as it is
- Actually being a democratic party, other 3 main parties want to stop Brexit which = undemocratic
- Keeping the voting age at 18, under 18s are clueless and most 18-21 are bandwagon studenty-type idiots that believe media soundbites like TORIES ARE KILLING NHS WORKERS!!!!

Only one way to vote folks, the Conservatives are the only backable party in this election.
 

 

Wot, no mention of ARE TROOPS!!!! Tory lite mate!

[Dons_1988]

Genuinely beautiful stuff.

- No indyref2
- No sneaky tactics like other parties to back out of what the people voted for (Brexit)
- No second Brexit vote, we’ve already had one and the sore losers can’t take it
- GETTING BREXIT DONE
- Being clear on all the above issues, no ifs buts and maybes like Labour
- No NI or VAT increase
- Proposal Australian points system for immigration
- No crackpot money tree plans
- Increasing mental health awareness in Scottish schools
- Increasing sporting activities in Scottish schools, no fat bassas going to the chippy at lunchtime
- Introducing LIFE SENTENCES THAT MEAN LIFE aka like in America. If you murder, rape or do anything to a child YOU SHOULD NEVER BE RELEASED!
- Refresh the woeful Curriculum for Excellence
- Raising the Living Wage
- Building new towns across Scotland
- Net-zero emissions in Scotland by 2050
- Investing heavily in walking/cycling paths as well as boosting funding for road repairs/upgrades
- Not nationalising the railway, it’s brutal enough as it is
- Actually being a democratic party, other 3 main parties want to stop Brexit which = undemocratic
- Keeping the voting age at 18, under 18s are clueless and most 18-21 are bandwagon studenty-type idiots that believe media soundbites like TORIES ARE KILLING NHS WORKERS!!!!

Only one way to vote folks, the Conservatives are the only backable party in this election.

Heads gone

[tirso]

16 minutes ago, Tarmo Kink said:

- No NI or VAT increase
- Increasing mental health awareness in Scottish schools
- Increasing sporting activities in Scottish schools, no fat bassas going to the chippy at lunchtime
- Introducing LIFE SENTENCES THAT MEAN LIFE aka like in America. If you murder, rape or do anything to a child YOU SHOULD NEVER BE RELEASED!
- Refresh the woeful Curriculum for Excellence
- Investing heavily in walking/cycling paths as well as boosting funding for road repairs/upgrades


Only one way to vote folks, the Conservatives are the only backable party in this election.
 

 

in this election?  are these not all more or less devolved?  how would they actually do that from Westminster?

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

Imagine being surprised that the tories are polling well in a constituency where people are so servile and cretinous that lights and shop signs arent allowed to be green for fear of being vandalised.

[D Angelo Barksdale]

I'll admit it, Tarmo has done me there. It's clearly a parody with the CAPS and the magic money tree stuff and the fact around half of that stuff is devolved. 

I mean, nobody is that thick. Well played Mr Kink sir.

[jamamafegan]

Had no idea that Tarmo is a snivelling Tory rat. What a shame.

[Kyle]

 

Seat breakdown

SNP 48

Tories 6

Labour 1

Lib dems 4

 

Scotland only poll by Ipsos Mori for STV

Edit: The same poll puts support for independence at 50%.

https://stv.tv/news/politics/1442737-stv-poll-snp-heading-for-landslide-of-scottish-seats/ 

 

Edited November 28, 2019 by Kyle

[Miguel Sanchez]

Can't believe that's a serious post from Tarmo