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Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence


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Guest Bob Mahelp
12 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said:

Adam Boulton presenting Sky News from Edinburgh this morning has managed to find some oddballs who are suggesting that Boris is now winning support in Scotland. Apparently they like his style!

Anyone know anyone in Scotland (apart from Malky) that has come round  to the idea that a Johnson led Tory government would be good for Scotland?

Support for the Tories in Scotland over the last 30 years has stayed fairly even at 15-20%, so around 1 in 5 or 6 people in the country are voting for them, regardless. 

They're a party of right-wing populists, and that populism is designed to appeal to the lowest common denominator......even in Scotland, it will appeal to some.

In reality though, The Daily Express......a rat's lair of ridiculous right-wing propaganda.....has a poll today showing that the Tories will lose 9 of their 13 seats in Scotland. I suspect that's closer to the truth than the story they have right next to it, saying that Sturgeon 'should be terrified of the resurgent Tory vote in Scotland'.

Lol.

I notice that Alan 'uncle McTom' Cochrane has raised his rancid voice in The Telegraph this morning, talking about how it's amazing how popular Boris Johnson is in Scotland. 

Lol.

 

 

 

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Support for the Tories in Scotland over the last 30 years has stayed fairly even at 15-20%, so around 1 in 5 or 6 people in the country are voting for them, regardless. 
They're a party of right-wing populists, and that populism is designed to appeal to the lowest common denominator......even in Scotland, it will appeal to some.
In reality though, The Daily Express......a rat's lair of ridiculous right-wing propaganda.....has a poll today showing that the Tories will lose 9 of their 13 seats in Scotland. I suspect that's closer to the truth than the story they have right next to it, saying that Sturgeon 'should be terrified of the resurgent Tory vote in Scotland'.
Lol.
I notice that Alan 'uncle McTom' Cochrane has raised his rancid voice in The Telegraph this morning, talking about how it's amazing how popular Boris Johnson is in Scotland. 
Lol.
 
 
 
I don't think Boris fits with a lot of Tories in Scotland.

They've had a lot of progressive, competent leaders up here - far removed from the right wing nut jobs of the erg brigade.

Fermers and the likes. They'll probably hold their nose and vote for him though.
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3 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said:

 

I notice that Alan 'uncle McTom' Cochrane has raised his rancid voice in The Telegraph this morning, talking about how it's amazing how popular Boris Johnson is in Scotland. 

Lol.

 

 

More suggestions on Sky News (from Edinburgh) that Boris's message of "getting Brexit done" is winning over the Scottish electorate. As if Boris's crap deal going through at the end of January means that's Brexit over and done with!

All I can think of here is that Scottish Tories knocking on doors must be finding mostly English folk who have chosen to make their homes in Scotland.

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44 minutes ago, harry94 said:

I've actually mixed it up a bit.

It's from a Datapraxis poll published at the weekend. My confusion is that it's also of the pricey MRP variety and they used YouGov data to compile their prediction but the predictive work wasn't done by YouGov. As far as I can see, Datapraxis are a new business and not worked at previous elections.

Last time round, we got a nice infographic and map on the YouGov website which gave us breakdown data for every seat in the country so I'd be looking out on their site.

The Yougov mass model was too accurate to use again. 

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2 hours ago, Dons_1988 said:

I think you’re spot on in your attitude.

Most extremists that gain power take genuine grievances, paint themselves as the individual to solve them, distort the responsible parties for the issue and it grows arms and legs from there.

 

Fascism arrives as your friend.

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1 hour ago, Blue-Toon said:

Yep and that from a company that has weighted Young People turn out at under 40%.! It's beginning to turn.

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1 hour ago, pandarilla said:

I don't think Boris fits with a lot of Tories in Scotland.

They've had a lot of progressive, competent leaders up here - far removed from the right wing nut jobs of the erg brigade.

Fermers and the likes. They'll probably hold their nose and vote for him though.

You've also got the staunch lot as well pushing it close to 30% They would vote for The Pope if he promised to stand against Scottish independence.

We're nothing like Ulster in the sense we all live together and most folk even with different political views live in the same house ; yet we are the fizzy spring water version of NI regarding voting tendencies.

If the Union means the most to you ; and it does to a large minority in Scotland, then you'll vote Tory/Lib/Lab whoever stops the SNP in.  Look at Malky, there must be thousands like him - voted against Brexit, but cannot stand Scotland going in a different way to the Tories so will suck it up and vote Tory.

The whole Boris won't be liked in Scotland is mostly shite too. People may talk hard about any Johnson PM etc and it makes independence more likely (they did the same with May) yet fell in to line week by week much like they will if/when Johnson gets a majority.

I hope  I am wrong and the SNP win over 50 seats, but I think its going to be very difficult for that to happen considering the seats I most want to fall - blue ones - won't have any Brexit numpties to split the vote ; I think Perth and North Tayside has one - so that's welcome news for Wishart ; and in Moray there's UKIP (in a tight seat, a few UKIP votes might be what won it)

Then again if those leaks are right. Tories whacking up massive majorities in safe seats yet losing some key ministers  ; Johnson run close for his seat and the LDs coming from third in the leafy areas that voted Remain along with Labour holding steady - or that WASPI surge Telford was on about - then it may well be hung parliament.

Would be quite funny, one poll has the political elite saying ''Ah, the Tories in Scotland look to hold on'' yet would be ace if they all fell on the night.

Suppose we'll see

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More suggestions on Sky News (from Edinburgh) that Boris's message of "getting Brexit done" is winning over the Scottish electorate. As if Boris's crap deal going through at the end of January means that's Brexit over and done with!
All I can think of here is that Scottish Tories knocking on doors must be finding mostly English folk who have chosen to make their homes in Scotland.


That is, quite literally, what is winning the Tories so much support. In an obviously Brexit-fuelled election, most people that voted Leave are blind to everything else and obviously aren’t going to back Remain parties. They have no other option.
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18 minutes ago, Tarmo Kink said:

 


That is, quite literally, what is winning the Tories so much support. In an obviously Brexit-fuelled election, most people that voted Leave are blind to everything else and obviously aren’t going to back Remain parties. They have no other option.

 

Rest of the campaign is about persuading remainer Tory voters to vote smart to avoid no deal. The jump in the polls for the tories was due to Farages surrendering. The only way is down for the Tories from here. It's why they've got the rabbi to try and shore the vote up in London seats.

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4 minutes ago, sparky88 said:

Rest of the campaign is about persuading remainer Tory voters to vote smart to avoid no deal. The jump in the polls for the tories was due to Farages surrendering. The only way is down for the Tories from here. It's why they've got the rabbi to try and shore the vote up in London seats.

I reckon that could backfire - his comments are yet more unsubstantiated assertions, light on detail and facts, and designed solely to damage Labour.  It is also patronising for him or any other religious leader to assume that their flock meekly follows whatever is handed down from the pulpit - this is 2019 not 1919.  I have yet to meet anyone who is exercised about Labour's alleged treatment of it's Jewish members and MP's; that's not to say that there are not incidents and individuals to be dealt with, but I wonder what this holy man thinks of, for example, the scandalous treatment of the Windrush generation, or the crisis in London's rented housing sector. 

I'd also hazard that most abuse directed towards British Jewry will still come from the extreme political right, as it has done for generations.  He's either being naïve or malicious, which is it ?

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12 minutes ago, O'Kelly Isley III said:

I reckon that could backfire - his comments are yet more unsubstantiated assertions, light on detail and facts, and designed solely to damage Labour.  It is also patronising for him or any other religious leader to assume that their flock meekly follows whatever is handed down from the pulpit - this is 2019 not 1919.  I have yet to meet anyone who is exercised about Labour's alleged treatment of it's Jewish members and MP's; that's not to say that there are not incidents and individuals to be dealt with, but I wonder what this holy man thinks of, for example, the scandalous treatment of the Windrush generation, or the crisis in London's rented housing sector. 

I'd also hazard that most abuse directed towards British Jewry will still come from the extreme political right, as it has done for generations.  He's either being naïve or malicious, which is it ?

 

I sincerely hope the Rabbi's offensive and inaccurate comments spectacularly backfire.

With any luck traditional labour voters will be inspired to come out in huge numbers on December 12th, and get Corbyn  elected with a small majority, which will of course benefit the SNP.

If this was to mean Jewish Communities moving to Israel in their droves, so be it. But do know what? That's just never going to happen.

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2 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said:

He's either being naïve or malicious, which is it ?

He wants a Government that will rubber stamp the Trump backed annexation of the West Bank, and he'd accuse me of antisemitism for saying so. 

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I sincerely hope the Rabbi's offensive and inaccurate comments spectacularly backfire.
With any luck traditional labour voters will be inspired to come out in huge numbers on December 12th, and get Corbyn  elected with a small majority, which will of course benefit the SNP.
If this was to mean Jewish Communities moving to Israel in their droves, so be it. But do know what? That's just never going to happen.


Is this meant to be “tongue in cheek”?
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As someone who doesnt particularly like Corbyn or the labour party I find it absolutely mad that they are accused of anti-semitism. From what i’ve seen Corbyn is a critic of the horrific Israeli actions in Gaza and the West Bank in stealing homes and committing genocide amongst the Palestinians. I heard a caller to LBC suggest that not supporting Berger when she left the labour party was wrong, Berger was a fucking terrible MP who was more tory than labour, but because she happens to be jewish its seen as antisemitism, im not doubting that individuals may have expressed anti-semitic comments and that is reprehensible, however thats not reflective of Corbyn imo. It does seem that being an outspoken critic of israel gets you labelled as anti-semitic.

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If this was to mean Jewish Communities moving to Israel in their droves, so be it.


I understand you perfectly then.

If you don’t understand that this statement is clearly anti-Semitic, then it’s no wonder that you don’t understand the Labour party’s problem.
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