Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[JMDP]

4 minutes ago, Malky3 said:

As I said I have answered it. You though have yet again ducked my question to you. I think that speaks volumes about your character. You call me a coward, whilst cowering yourself. 

You haven't. You never even tried. Attempt number five: Do you think it is acceptable for the prime minister to be a racist and a homophobe? It is fairly simple. 

Supplementary: Do you think it is hyperbolic to call someone who uses the word "bumboys" a homophobe? Would you use that word? If not, why not?

[John Lambies Doos]

As stated on here last night WASPI is going to be the game changer. Was quickly dismissed as fantasy island by virginton but low and behold first soundings bear out my campaigning in Bedford yesterday.
 
 
@faisalislam
v. small sub sample - ICM had 55-64 year olds breaking 49:21 Con/Lab last week - so at least double in 3 polls so far ... now 42:31 & no longer straight line -ve correlation between age & Lab vote. Waspi effect? Half the poll taken after announcement
ICM Voting Intentions - General Election 2019: Poll 4 - icmunlimited
icmunlimited.com
7:08 pm · 25 Nov 2019·Twitter for iPad
 
 

Unfortunately can't see it mate. It's half the NHS budget ontop of the 80billion Corbyn has pledged. You might see a small bounce but it will be attacked as unattainable in next couple of weeks and will disappear.

[Sunrise]

1 hour ago, Malky3 said:

This is utter nonsense. 

I will vote conservative in the general election, not because I'm a far right wing goose stepping jackbooted lunatic, but because i have looked at the various manifestos and I believe that Conservatives are the safest pair of hands for our country at the moment. I voted to remain, and I am no supporter of Boris Johnson, but when I look at the competition he looks like the sanest option

Corbyn is promising to bankrupt the UK. Sturgeon is promising to bankrupt an Independent Scotland, and Swinson is standing on an anti democratic and morally bankrupt pledge to overturn a referendum result on the back of what would be an overwhelmingly minority vote. 

 

Remember when you called Brexit a tragedy? And you're still not backing Swinson?

[harry94]

Unfortunately can't see it mate. It's half the NHS budget ontop of the 80billion Corbyn has pledged. You might see a small bounce but it will be attacked as unattainable in next couple of weeks and will disappear.

The first pricey MRP YouGov poll is coming Wednesday evening, got the constituency vote very close last time out. I think once we see that, we'll have a good idea whether this thing is actually in play.

Still plenty of mileage IMO. For all the commanding leads we've seen, voters do poll as knowing Boris is a lying and untrustworthy b*****d by almost record levels, much worse than Corbyn in this regard. I don't think he's in a very comfortable place.

I think Farage is an important ally who Boris needs to get the Labour vote, there's a certain demographic who would never vote Tory in their life but would let Farage take their vote. I think they need to pull that enemy act off well and get the dynamic just right to get their majority. Maybe the manner of the alliance backfires, hard to tell.

[git-intae-thum]

Being a rascist homophobe is nothing to the no righters tbh.

These days Scottish unionists would quite happily vote Hitler into power, if he was the only one standing on a platform of stopping independence.

[invergowrie arab]

2 hours ago, Malky3 said:

 

The SNP was torn apart not that long ago over same sex marriages and over Section 28. 

No it wasnt

[GordonS]

3 hours ago, Malky3 said:

Really? So I guess you reckon all these Jewish ex party members are just out to get him and his party? 

I also note your attempt to sidestep the issue of Section 28 and of same sex marriage. 

How many of those SNP fan boys voted for any of these MSP's who voted against same sex marriage? 

Dr Alasdair Allan (Na h-Eileanan an Iar) (SNP)

Roseanna Cunningham (Perthshire South and Kinross-shire) (SNP)

Fergus Ewing (Inverness and Nairn) (SNP)

Richard Lyle (Central Scotland) (SNP)

Angus MacDonald (Falkirk East) (SNP)

John Mason (Glasgow Shettleston) (SNP)

Dave Thompson (Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch) (SNP)

 

I actually think you've hit on a rare valid point here.

FWIW 8 Tories voted against gay marriage, and 3 Labour MSPs too.

All of them voted for amendments to protect freedom to express and to prevent churches from being required to participate in gay marriages. Richard Lyle introduced amendments on stuff like ensuring prospective adopting parents couldn't be rejected on the grounds of their view on gay marriage. Who knows whether they would still have voted against the final Bill had any or all of those amendments passed - lots of other MSPs voted for these amendments too. Dick Lyle would still have voted against it, I'm sure, but I don't know about all the others. It's not necessarily the case that they all wanted to prevent gay marriage altogether.

Regardless, I wouldn't vote for any of those individuals if they were standing in my constituency, it's a red-line issue for me, but that vote wouldn't prevent me from voting for those parties.

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

10 hours ago, Malky3 said:

This is utter nonsense. 

I will vote conservative in the general election, not because I'm a far right wing goose stepping jackbooted lunatic, but because i have looked at the various manifestos and I believe that Conservatives are the safest pair of hands for our country at the moment. I voted to remain, and I am no supporter of Boris Johnson, but when I look at the competition he looks like the sanest option

Corbyn is promising to bankrupt the UK. Sturgeon is promising to bankrupt an Independent Scotland, and Swinson is standing on an anti democratic and morally bankrupt pledge to overturn a referendum result on the back of what would be an overwhelmingly minority vote. 

 

That smells like the coward's way out. 

The fact is, you'll vote Tory because the Tory 'principles' (if there are such a thing) appeal to you. You don't see yourself....apparently.....as a right-winger but you're happy to give your vote to a party that has swung politically to the right of UKIP, with all that entails.

And your excuse for ignoring austerity, attacks on the poorest in society, islamophobia, rampant xenophobia and a hundred other things that the Tories revel in, is that 'they're the safest pair of hands for our country' (I'm presuming your country is the UK, and not Scotland).

If it smells of Tory, it's Tory. And you reek of it. 

 

Edited November 26, 2019 by Bob Mahelp

[Paco]

I’ve no issue in this election with people voting Tory, if they voted Brexit they have little option or if they’re honest enough to say that they agree with the policy of austerity and wish for it to continue. If they earn over £80k and want to save themselves a tenner a month, that’s fine too if they just say so.

Any answer that involves the words ‘Corbyn’ or ‘Sturgeon’ mean they’re brainwashed simpletons, petrified of a middling European spend level or Scottish people having a vote on their own future. Ultimately willing to sacrifice advantages for themselves in favour of millionaires and billionaires maintaining lower tax rates.

Lunacy.

[pandarilla]

I'm actually not one of those guys, but for example I had occasion recently in a social situation to challenge an avowed Tory who was claiming that there should be no need for food banks in this country.

I readily agreed of course, but thereafter the determination of the issue became a slight problem.

What would you have done ?

I would clearly say otherwise :

"Aww I'm not sure about that. I've donated to food banks and seen the levels of deprivation of some folk."

And then I'd try hard to diffuse the tension that the disagreement brings. I'm not afraid of the awkwardness but I try to not let it ruin relationships and create bad atmospheres.

"Anyway, enough about politics - did anyone see strictly at the weekend..."

Intolerant people have a lot more chance of changing things than tolerant ones.

My tolerance has a tipping point. Just to be clear, Boris is a sneering, lying c**t of a man and I wouldn't give him the reek off my shite.

I'm just openly tolerant when it becomes clear someone has very different views from me. I try hard to understand where they're coming from and put myself in their position of I can.

I'm fairly certain pandarilla would have described Hitler in the Twenties as having a few misguided ideas, but that he shouldn't have been dismissed out of hand.
Pol Pot - veers to the extreme, but you have to understand what's happening in Cambodia.
Ted Bundy - went too far, but you can see where his frustration with women comes from.

[emoji3166][emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]

Hitler did some cool things, man.



(But seriously, there was genuine grievances at that time and that wee fucked-up belter just took advantage of them. People in positions of authority were to blame for letting the goon into power in the first place. But my more measured approach would've given me a much better chance of surviving the whole shooting match - so f**k you boys and your 'in your face' political ways. Your deid.)

[Dons_1988]

[emoji3166][emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]

Hitler did some cool things, man.



(But seriously, there was genuine grievances at that time and that wee fucked-up belter just took advantage of them. People in positions of authority were to blame for letting the goon into power in the first place. But my more measured approach would've given me a much better chance of surviving the whole shooting match - so f**k you boys and your 'in your face' political ways. Your deid.)

I think you’re spot on in your attitude.

Most extremists that gain power take genuine grievances, paint themselves as the individual to solve them, distort the responsible parties for the issue and it grows arms and legs from there.

[jamamafegan]

Well, I for one am shocked that Malky turns out to be both a homophobe and a racist.

[topcat(The most tip top)]

Being a rascist homophobe is nothing to the no righters tbh.
These days Scottish unionists would quite happily vote Hitler into power, if he was the only one standing on a platform of stopping independence.

Anschluss means Anschluss

[harry94]

Some of the expensive MRP data has leaked, full release on Wednesday at 10pm. It suggests Boris' seat is still in play and with some tactical voting, he could be gone. It also shows Dominic Raab, who currently has a majority of near 40% (which is insanely huge), struggling and getting by on a couple of percentage points. Also risks for IDS and a few of the notable 1922 members. Goldsmith well gone (although not entirely unexpected as really narrow majority)

Take of that what you think but from those early reports, that's about 6 heavy hitters with really comfortable majorities in the south floundering a few weeks out whilst really big national leads are being reported.

In the top 10 Tory target seats, there's 2 of them held by the SNP (Wishart and Crawley) and they look like they'll comfortably hold firm and the SNP will expand their leads there. 2 of them in the south held by Labour are showing that the Lib Dems may leapfrog into first place and it's not a sure thing.

Maybe the full data will show an easy wipeout and Labour losing seats in the north but I think people talking about massive majorities should hold fire. FPTP leads to a lot of interesting fuckery and there seems to be realignments all over the shop.

[Kyle]

Do you have any links for these leaks Harry? Would be very interested to see this.

[ICTJohnboy]

Adam Boulton presenting Sky News from Edinburgh this morning has managed to find some oddballs who are suggesting that Boris is now winning support in Scotland. Apparently they like his style!

Anyone know anyone in Scotland (apart from Malky) that has come round  to the idea that a Johnson led Tory government would be good for Scotland?

[Blootoon87]

Adam Boulton presenting Sky News from Edinburgh this morning has managed to find some oddballs who are suggesting that Boris is now winning support in Scotland. Apparently they like his style!
Anyone know anyone in Scotland (apart from Malky) that has come round  to the idea that a Johnson led Tory government would be good for Scotland?

My da presumably.

[harry94]

21 minutes ago, Kyle said:

Do you have any links for these leaks Harry? Would be very interested to see this.

I've actually mixed it up a bit.

It's from a Datapraxis poll published at the weekend. My confusion is that it's also of the pricey MRP variety and they used YouGov data to compile their prediction but the predictive work wasn't done by YouGov. As far as I can see, Datapraxis are a new business and not worked at previous elections.

Last time round, we got a nice infographic and map on the YouGov website which gave us breakdown data for every seat in the country so I'd be looking out on their site.

[Blue-Toon]

Wow! Tories down 2 points and Labour up 5 points - 

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-poll-kantar/conservatives-poll-lead-over-labour-narrows-to-11-points-kantar-poll-idUKKBN1Y00R2

 

[pandarilla]

Anschluss means Anschluss

Well played top-cat. Well played!

I think he went for the hard Anschluss in the end, and the confirmatory mandate in 1938 was a little bit more convincing than 2016 - 99% was it not?