Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[Granny Danger]

The GE when it comes is going to be difficult to call, except in Scotland.

The Tories biggest threat across the board is ‘one nation Conservatives’ not going along to vote.

Labour’s biggest threat is their clusterfuck Brexit policy and public perception of Corbyn.  The ideal scenario would be the upcoming conference addressing the former but I don’t see it happening.

The LibDems have maybe shot themselves in the foot with their latest policy.  They might have attracted a fair few ‘soft Tory’ votes but a policy of revocation without a second referendum might scupper that.

As I said that is ‘across the board’; in certain geographical areas (Scotland, London the South East) the Tories will lose out with seats going to all the opposition parties and the SNP looking at 50+.

 

[Frank Grimes]

Parliament staff have been told to work to a 28th November election. 

[Granny Danger]

1 hour ago, Frank Grimes said:

Parliament staff have been told to work to a 28th November election. 

Sounds about right.

[Detournement]

On 09/09/2019 at 15:04, dorlomin said:

 

Always worth repeating, polling for single issue parties tends to collapse as an election draws near so the Tories may pick up a chunk of Brexit Party votes in a real deal GE. 

 

That said, lol, and where are the conspiracy clowns with there "YouGov" theories?

Yougov private polling for the Tory Party significantly more pessimistic than Yougov propaganda polling for Murdoch.

Shocker.

[harry94]

1 hour ago, Detournement said:

Yougov private polling for the Tory Party significantly more pessimistic than Yougov propaganda polling for Murdoch.

Shocker.

It wasn't a Yougov poll, person has clarified they were mistaken.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Yougov private polling for the Tory Party significantly more pessimistic than Yougov propaganda polling for Murdoch.
Shocker.

Had heard that as well - Tories are going to lose seats in Scotland, London and, more crucially, across the South of England - particularly the South West.

[Baxter Parp]

11 hours ago, Frank Grimes said:

Parliament staff have been told to work to a 28th November election. 

A date picked to keep the turnout low, clearly.

[Double Jack D]

On 04/09/2019 at 07:43, Lurkst said:

It's 51% No according to here...

http://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2019/09/first-post-boris-scottish-poll-puts-snp.html?m=1

 

It is quite disheartening that, with all that is going on at Westminster and how little fucks they can give for Scotland, that a majority of us still think its better that they run things for us.

Even if there was a £13bn black hole to fill it would be worth the struggle for some dignity as a nation.

[Granny Danger]

4 minutes ago, Double Jack D said:

It is quite disheartening that, with all that is going on at Westminster and how little fucks they can give for Scotland, that a majority of us still think its better that they run things for us.

Even if there was a £13bn black hole to fill it would be worth the struggle for some dignity as a nation.

Too poor.  No.

Too wee.  No.

Too stupid.  Sadly still a majority/sizeable minority.

 

[doulikefish]

Te hee

[Blue-Toon]

ComRes’ latest voting intention shows the Conservatives just ahead of Labour with 30% compared to 29% of the vote respectively.

https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/the-daily-telegraph-westminster-voting-intention-september-2019/

[Highland Capital]

3 hours ago, Blue-Toon said:

ComRes’ latest voting intention shows the Conservatives just ahead of Labour with 30% compared to 29% of the vote respectively.

https://www.comresglobal.com/polls/the-daily-telegraph-westminster-voting-intention-september-2019/

Is that not the poll that would put the SNP on 36 seats (up one)?  I think they'd be very disappointed with that return.

Edited September 11, 2019 by Highland Capital

[GordonS]

7 hours ago, Highland Capital said:

Is that not the poll that would put the SNP on 36 seats (up one)?  I think they'd be very disappointed with that return.

That's not a Scottish poll so it tells us very little about Scottish seats.

[LongTimeLurker]

23 hours ago, doulikefish said:

Te hee
 

How does he neatly identify people into Unionist and Nationalist when a significant percentage rejects both labels? Think the methodology needs to be looked at carefully. Don't doubt hard Brexit with no backstop leads to UI within a generation, but it happening tomorrow looks like a hardcore Brexiter's fantasy about how to jettison NI ASAP to get a clean break.

[NotThePars]

Nah he just asked for their surnames or the school they went to and went with their gut.

[LongTimeLurker]

Which then begs the question of how he normalised his sample to fit NI's demography and ensure it was truly representative. If you want plenty of media attention a narrow UI lead is the way to go and a lot of Leave types would love to be able to get rid of the RoI:NI border issue once and for all so they can easily pursue separate trade deals. Don't doubt it's much closer than it's ever been in numbers terms courtesy of the antics of Arlene and co, but I'll wait until I see multiple polls from different polling organisations reporting these trends before putting too much faith in it really being the lie of the land.

[Detournement]

There also hasn't been much scrutiny of the costs of joining RoI and who would bear them.

It's a totally different tax, welfare and health system which people would have to adapt to and RoI would have to bear the cost of the NI deficit. There is also the issue of how Unionist parties fit into the FF/FG stitch up in RoI and the tensions this would cause.

[hearthammer]

35 minutes ago, Detournement said:

There also hasn't been much scrutiny of the costs of joining RoI and who would bear them.

It's a totally different tax, welfare and health system which people would have to adapt to and RoI would have to bear the cost of the NI deficit. There is also the issue of how Unionist parties fit into the FF/FG stitch up in RoI and the tensions this would cause.

Would the unionist parties not be treated the same way the SNP are treated by "the big 2" in westminster ??  Probably told to mind their place. 

[LongTimeLurker]

The natural party of power in the RoI is Fianna Fail (Solders of Destiny), who represent more the rural western Gaelic strand of Irish nationalism. The other main party, Fine Gael (Family of the Gael), are more the urban Anglo-Irish Catholics from the Pale strand of Irish nationalism and they tend to see UI as a way to team up with Ulster Unionists to change the electoral arithmetic in their favour. FF have tended to be happier with a 26 county state and less keen on UI over the years than FG for that reason but that's not something they share with the plebs. In an STV PR system the Unionists might continue to do OK for a few decades representing an Ulster regional interest by joining coalitions to bring back the bacon in pork barrel terms.  The RoI of today isn't what it was like under de Valera, so they are unlikely to be treated as complete pariahs for sectarian reasons. Think Detournement is right though that the practicalities of moving to UI make it a long shot straight away even in the doomsday scenario of a no deal Brexit.

[Jacksgranda]

The EU will pay for it (or heavily subsidise it).

And police, health care, pensions, civil service jobs, education, which brown envelopes are still allowed etc will all have to be agreed - it'll take years for that to be hammered out before it's put to a referendum.