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Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence


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1 hour ago, Malky3 said:

Delighted to see the war memorial vandals soundly beaten. 

 

It was probably the Lib Dems that did that. 

Carmichael's employed dirty tricks against the SNP in the past.

Remember this?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/22/lib-dem-alistair-carmichael-admits-responsibility-anti-sturgeon-leak-mp-snp-leader-david-cameron

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Whn the dust settles this will be seen as a decent SNP performance  in what was always going to be a difficult seat to win; Shetalnd is hardly a typical Scottish constituency yet they still managed considerable forward momentum, a point which will not be lost on the Unionists, whatever they may claim in public. 

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Post prorogation announcement and there is a poll boost for the tories 

Survation usually have the best results for Labour due to the way they poll for the Greens. 

 

There best pm poll might cause a few bottom lips to tremble. 

 

 

Edited by dorlomin
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Looks on the surface like a recipe for a general election called in October allowing the clock to run down during the campaign. At that point the Brexit party loses its reason to exist and their voters swing mainly to the Tories with the likely outcome being a large Tory majority (involuntary shudder). 

Fly in the ointment for Boris though is how the electorate would react to chaos in the supermarket delivery chain in the aftermath of a hard Brexit. Any society is only a couple of missed meals away from severe civil unrest.

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Looks on the surface like a recipe for a general election called in October allowing the clock to run down during the campaign. At that point the Brexit party loses its reason to exist and their voters swing mainly to the Tories with the likely outcome being a large Tory majority (involuntary shudder). 
Fly in the ointment for Boris though is how the electorate would react to chaos in the supermarket delivery chain in the aftermath of a hard Brexit. Any society is only a couple of missed meals away from severe civil unrest.

Not just the supermarkets. Remember how close to chaos the fuel dispute almost came with panic buying and queues at petrol stations. Also witness how quick the shelves empty of bread and milk if we have a few days of snow.
For anyone looking to see how quick civilised society can break down read ‘Last Light’ by Alex Scarrow.
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8 minutes ago, Dunfermline Don said:


For anyone looking to see how quick civilised society can break down read ‘Last Light’ by Alex Scarrow.

Quote

Alex Scarrow used to be a rock guitarist in a band, spending ten years after college in the music business. He eventually figured that he would never become famous nor get a record deal. He left the music industry in order to become a graphic artist and then he decided to be a computer games designer. He worked on game titles[2] such as Waterworld, Evolva, The Thing, Spartan, Gates of Troy, Legion Arena, and Ultimate Soccer Manager.[3]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alex_Scarrow

 

Its literally going to be Hunger Games and Maze Runner post Brexit. 

 

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Looks on the surface like a recipe for a general election called in October allowing the clock to run down during the campaign. At that point the Brexit party loses its reason to exist and their voters swing mainly to the Tories with the likely outcome being a large Tory majority (involuntary shudder). 
Fly in the ointment for Boris though is how the electorate would react to chaos in the supermarket delivery chain in the aftermath of a hard Brexit. Any society is only a couple of missed meals away from severe civil unrest.
Then the backstop moves to the Irish sea. No DUP needed, and there is your deal. This is what BJ wants
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I know you are always keen on finding a rapid UI scenario in everything, but don't follow the logic on this one given there is no sign that Boris wants to ditch the DUP and there are only a couple of months left now. Leave it to Boris and the DUP to secure a hard Brexit and a hard border when the EU refuse to budge on the backstop over the next few weeks and there could finally be a rational argument for it that will persuade significant numbers of people from a moderate Unionist background. A lot will depend on just how bad the economic hit will be that the RoI takes on how the rational pragmatic portion of the electorate views things moving forward.

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FTA means Boris will find it hard to run down the clock during an election unless he loses a VONC.

Even then the suggestion that he can block a new government and force an election by not going to the Queen seems far fetched. I doubt the Palace would go along with that.

Edited by Detournement
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FTA means Boris will find it hard to run down the clock during an election unless he loses a VONC.
Even then the suggestion that he can block a new government and force an election by not going to the Queen seems far fetched. I doubt the Palace would go along with that.
The Palace would do as it's told
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Here are the latest polls from the 6 major polling companies. 

via @DeltapollUK, 29 - 31 Aug
CON: 35% (+5)
LAB: 24% (-1)
LDEM: 18% (-)
BREX: 14%

(91%)
via @Survation, 29 - 30 Aug
CON: 31% (+3)
LAB; 24% (-)
LDEM: 21% (-)
BREX: 14% (-1)
(90%)
via @YouGov, 28 - 29 Aug
CON: 33% (-1)
LAB; 22% (-)
LDEM: 21% (+4)
BREX: 12% (-1)
GRN: 7% (-1)
(95%)
via @OpiniumResearch, 21 - 23 Aug
CON: 32% (+1)
LAB: 26% (-2)
BREX: 16% (-)
LDEM: 15% (+2)
GRN: 4% (-1)
(93%)
via @KantarTNS, 15 - 19 Aug
CON: 42% (+17)
LAB: 28% (-6)
LDEM: 15% (-)
BREX: 5% (-5)
GRN: 3% (-)
TIG/CHUK: 1% (-)
UKIP: 0% (-4)
(94%)
via @BMGResearch (pre 18 August)
CON: 31% (+3)
LAB: 25% (-2)
LDEM: 19% (+1)
BREX: 12% (-2)
(87%)

The trend is pretty clear. 

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15 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

The trend is pretty clear. 

Independence it is then, by any means necessary. If the "unwritten constitution" of convention can be thrown out the door when convenient down south, I don't see why we shouldn't do the same.

Edited by welshbairn
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25 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Here is the polls in the run up to the 2016 election

Jesus wept get the year right. 

13% in the European Parliamentary Elections

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_European_Parliament_election_in_the_United_Kingdom

He also lost significant vote share in the recent local government elections. 

You are begging us to believe that in an election the Tories will be as awful as May, but also that that had no bearing on the outcome in 2017 and it was all down to the magnetic charm of your man-chrush that turned the voters on. 

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