Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[Colkitto]

Results of the poll released at 7am tomorrow morning 

[Antlion]

16 minutes ago, Kejan said:

I think he polled a few of the monster turn around constituencies the SNP won in 2015 and was right on.

Be interesting to see it. Seen SNP people retweet it e.g Andrew Wilson etc but no idea if he thinks it good or bad.

I wouldn't be shocked if it was 47-52 to No - we are serial bed shitters ; no one liked May but independence only moved slightly in the polls with her at the helm for two years ; and whilst if Johnson becomes PM we'll go etc polls have came out in the past, we'll no doubt get used to him and just move on with it.

Saying that if it's 55-45 Yes tomorrow, SAOR ALBA, WHA'S LIKE US let's have Indyref2 noo

What I always wonder is what the f**k happens to those who respond to conditional questions (and why pollsters bother asking them). Remember the poll before the referendum that indicated a “Yes” majority if there was a guaranteed Tory government? Well, we got that Tory government and those who said they’d be yes if it happened seemed to disappear. Ditto polls showing “Yes” if Johnson got what he thought the world owed him - where are they?

[O'Kelly Isley III]

I wouldn't read too much into polls right now as the situation is too fissile.  Johnson is peddling utter waffle at every turn and promising money right, left and centre and there will be a percentage of the electorate taken in by this, as much because he's the polar opposite of May as anything else.  The British adored Benny Hill after all.

Add to this that Brexit still isn't off the first tee so the country is still to feel the tangible effects of both an exit and the effects of Johnson's premiership.  In other words we are in a strange sort of limbo right now and IMO it's only when something significant happens that polls will start to become relevant.

[ayrmad]

A wee lead, interesting.

[renton]

Yes 52/No 48

[sophia]

https://www.holyrood.com/articles/news/exclusive-majority-scots-now-favour-independence-finds-poll

 

[Loondave1]

10% of Yes voters moving to No surely flies in the face of the often espoused on here theory that direction of movement only goes toward YES. Interesting polling but not setting the heather in fire. As you were..

[renton]

Just now, Loondave1 said:

10% of Yes voters moving to No surely flies in the face of the often espoused on here theory that direction of movement only goes toward YES. Interesting polling but not setting the heather in fire. As you were..

It's hardly news. Certainly during the referendum itself movement only went one way, but the EU referendum result meant that a number of people who were Indy voters as a means of getting out of the EU first and foremost moved to No (as they had the real result they wanted, and the SNP were pro-EU), and indeed didn't vote SNP anymore. Hence the resulting SNP to Tory switch in 2017. That's pretty much "priced in" now though. 

Of probable consternation to Unionists is that there is now a plurality backing for a referendum "within two years"....

[ayrmad]

5 minutes ago, Loondave1 said:

10% of Yes voters moving to No surely flies in the face of the often espoused on here theory that direction of movement only goes toward YES. Interesting polling but not setting the heather in fire. As you were..

Would you rather have 12% of 45% or 20% of 55%.

[renton]

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/08/my-scotland-poll-yes-to-independence-takes-the-lead/

Bottom of page for data tables. No 16-17 year olds. 

[SweeperDee]

https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/08/my-scotland-poll-yes-to-independence-takes-the-lead/
Bottom of page for data tables. No 16-17 year olds. 

So probably closer to 54/46. Smashing.

[Wee Bully]

This is very interesting stuff - Ashcroft has a track record of being right (or at least more right than a lot of the others), so this is a pretty significant swing. 

Sample size of over 1000 in Scotland too, so takes out some of the issues in the Scottish sub-samples we often see.

[Loondave1]

Consistent clear sizable lead before anything happens. Otherwise Nicola would be betting the house on something that could backfire terminally.

Nobody credible's said that. A minority of folk voted yes specifically to raise the chances of an EU exit, so a proportion of those will no longer see the need this time round. The important thing is the aggregate direction of travel which is to yes. We'll see how long it lasts.

[DAFC.]

Until the polls include 16-17 year olds and show, consistently, 55% + for indy, then Oor Nic should call it.

[Colkitto]

1 hour ago, Loondave1 said:

Consistent clear sizable lead before anything happens. Otherwise Nicola would be betting the house on something that could backfire terminally.

It will always be a gamble. Remember Cameron called the EU election when remain was ahead in the polls.

I'm certain the Yes margin will increase as the weeks and months pass. Then if we do indeed end up with a hard Brexit it can only increase further still.

Instead of "Now is not the time" it might have been better to agree indyref2 as soon as possible from a Unionist perspective  

 

[HTG]

The Rangers minded types have taken the news well ... 

[Swello]

The poll is interesting but have we seen the order of the questions -ie, if they asked "Will a no-deal brexit leave Scotland a smoking ruin" or "On a scale of 1-10, how much of a fanny is Boris Johnson" before the Indy one, it could have been enough to tip the scales on this occasion. I guess it gets serious when the 2014 percentage is reversed consistently in the polling...

In any case, the seeming underlying strength of the Yes vote must be putting the shiters up the unionist side 

[Kejan]

Aye, it's a welcome poll and fascinating, but we'll need to see how the next few months go really - no doubt be an Election at some point in the next months.

We have a history of just accepting shite government and leaders e.g Cameron, May, now Johnson or getting used to them, but a few more of these polls and they'll be shitting bricks. I wonder if that 'secret' poll was jut rubbish (the one Liddington apparently hid) or actually true.

If No Deal happens, then the UK is finished.

 

[AUFC90]

Consistent clear sizable lead before anything happens. Otherwise Nicola would be betting the house on something that could backfire terminally.

Makes a change from your no appetite for another ref pish patter.

[jimmer]

KIRSTY,

On behalf of those people who support independence for Scotland I would like to invite you to take part in the March for Independence in Aberdeen on Saturday 17th August starting at Albyn Place 1.30pm. I do hope that a high profile SNP politician would be only too glad to take part in this event, There appears to be a feeling that the SNP have been too long sitting on the political fence and that their support for those who wish to raise the profile of Independence has been severely lacking. So I would urge you and your fellow SNP politicians to come out from behind your net curtains and join us in the March in a hopefully sunny Saturday in Aberdeen.