Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[John Lambies Doos 2,134]

Despite the roaring success of the polls in recent years; it may be worth starting a thread specific to upcoming elections. All UK, Scottish subsamples, specific Scottish polls and leader popularity welcome; not to mention the independence question.

 

[Colkitto 754]

Very latest UK Westminster poll by YouGov

 

CON: 48% (+4) LAB: 24% (+1)

[Kyle 2,695]

In fairness, the pollsters have gotten the percentages in Scotland spot on, even if the seat distribution on the predictor sites has been shite.

 

It's completely depressing how easily the Tories, who have been all over the place during this most recent term in government, will absolutely waltz this election. They'll likely gain a few seats in Scotland too.

[Granny Danger 9,068]

1 hour ago, John Lambies Doos said:

 

Despite the roaring success of the polls in recent years; it may be worth starting a thread specific to upcoming elections. All UK, Scottish subsamples, specific Scottish polls and leader popularity welcome; not to mention the independence question.

 

 

You're fucking obsessed with polls man.  Have the recent inaccuracies not persuaded you to go cold turkey?

[Fide 1,988]

5 hours ago, Kyle said:

In fairness, the pollsters have gotten the percentages in Scotland spot on, even if the seat distribution on the predictor sites has been shite.

 

It's completely depressing how easily the Tories, who have been all over the place during this most recent term in government, will absolutely waltz this election. They'll likely gain a few seats in Scotland too.

I genuinely believe the Tories won't do any better in Scotland than one seat in June.

[Principal Flutie 3,479]

I genuinely believe the Tories won't do any better in Scotland than one seat in June.

Brave call. Won't be MUCH more than that but I can see them take a couple.

[Glenconner 757]

I can see the Tories getting up to 10 seats in the wealthier parts of Scotland.

[Sooky 699]

Not sure where this is from, but I can see Tories winning the first 3 on the list. Robertson has a 10k majority in Moray, but the one thing going against him is that it was the highest Leave vote in Scotland (49.9%, I'm sure) so I think the gap will tighten a fair bit, but it'll be too much ground to make up. Unfortunately.

[Fide 1,988]

1 minute ago, Sooky said:

Not sure where this is from, but I can see Tories winning the first 3 on the list. Robertson has a 10k majority in Moray, but the one thing going against him is that it was the highest Leave vote in Scotland (49.9%, I'm sure) so I think the gap will tighten a fair bit, but it'll be too much ground to make up. Unfortunately.

[John Lambies Doos 2,134]

Not sure where this is from, but I can see Tories winning the first 3 on the list. Robertson has a 10k majority in Moray, but the one thing going against him is that it was the highest Leave vote in Scotland (49.9%, I'm sure) so I think the gap will tighten a fair bit, but it'll be too much ground to make up. Unfortunately.

No way Stirling will go Tory

[Guest]

SNP to win 51+ seats is 5/6

Buying money imo 

[John Lambies Doos 2,134]

You're fucking obsessed with polls man.  Have the recent inaccuracies not persuaded you to go cold turkey?

And are you going to fuk off to the Canaries again????

[Kyle 2,695]

8 hours ago, Sooky said:

Not sure where this is from, but I can see Tories winning the first 3 on the list. Robertson has a 10k majority in Moray, but the one thing going against him is that it was the highest Leave vote in Scotland (49.9%, I'm sure) so I think the gap will tighten a fair bit, but it'll be too much ground to make up. Unfortunately.

Agree with this. The Tories will almost certainly pick up Berwickshire. Dumfries and Galloway and West Aberdeenshire will be closer and I think the Tories will have a chance in some Edinburgh seats too. I'd say the two Perth/Perthshire seats could go blue as well.

[Jamaldo 1,152]

I'm not trying to be a dick but how the f**k can Pete Wishart possibly lose a 10,000 majority in a snap election?

[Kyle 2,695]

43 minutes ago, Jamaldo said:

I'm not trying to be a dick but how the f**k can Pete Wishart possibly lose a 10,000 majority in a snap election?

The man is a bit of a fud to be fair. If this election is going to be based on indyref2, which it appears to be, the no voters in Perth could easily smash that majority. Swinney, who's much more popular than Wishart, saw a hugely reduced majority last year.

[invergowrie arab 3,711]

Pete's seat covers whole city of Perth so much more SNP voters than Holyrood. Absolute fantasy to suggest Tories will win it.

[Wee Willie 266]

9 hours ago, invergowrie arab said:

Pete's seat covers whole city of Perth so much more SNP voters than Holyrood. Absolute fantasy to suggest Tories will win it.

[Stephen Malkmus 761]

Scottish independence voting intention: Yes: 43% (+2) No: 45% (+1) (via BMG) Chgs. w/ Feb

[git-intae-thum 399]

What is really quite worrying is how our media is going to spin the tories getting 2 or 3 seats and the SNP getting only around 50 this time, as a major blow to the independence cause and a reason to put the referendum on the back burner.

[John Lambies Doos 2,134]

What is really quite worrying is how our media is going to spin the tories getting 2 or 3 seats and the SNP getting only around 50 this time, as a major blow to the independence cause and a reason to put the referendum on the back burner.

There was a guy on press release tory... on sky news last night peddling this shite. He was basically saying that based on polls tories could win up to 12 seats in Scotland. He then went on to say that if so it would be a massive blow to the independence mandate...
Forgot of course to mention that the SNP would still have 80 fukin % of seats. This is what will be peddled. We will be belittled