GeeJay Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 There's 6 times as many SNP MPs right now than at the time of the 2014 referendum. IndyRef2 is nowhere near dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 39 minutes ago, Sooky said: Think there's definitely something in this. Whilst the SNP still have the majority of seats, their vote collapsed in quite a few places in seats they held. They definitely need to get their vote out next time. I kind of posted about this earlier - look at the change in the results in Glasgow Central - 2010 maj 7662 - 2017 maj 2267 East - 10,037 - 75 North - 9295 - 1060 North East - 9222 - 242 for Labour North West - 10367 - 2561 South - 12268 - 2027 South West - 9950 - 60 Before this election I don't think anyone really thought any of these constituencies were in play but if there's another election this year Labour might even be favourites to take back two. I had thought that these places would be safe for the SNP in the post-indyref reconfiguration of Scottish politics (Malcolm Malcolm w**k talk I know). They aren't. Imagine if Corbyn is seen to be building Labour up towards a majority by then. Is it utterly, completely impossible that he wins back most of those seats? Pretty unlikely but what the f**k isn't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1320Lichtie Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 I appreciate the fact some utter loonballs still think the Indy2 bus is on track. "Usually vote SNP voted Corbyn" just means taking it for granted they will just pop back in a bit.Ive watched election nights since the mid 70s and my opinion is Indy2 is a dead duck for at least a decade and possibly forever. It's not went anywhere. Nobody is a loonball. It's been clear as day from watching the reactions of young labour voters up here this morning. If labour people like yourself, but more importantly the MPs themselves continue to say this, it'll back fire. You've gained plenty of support from socialists in the SNP who still support independence, but want to back Corbyn, don't ruin it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, Loondave1 said: I appreciate the fact some utter loonballs still think the Indy2 bus is on track. "Usually vote SNP voted Corbyn" just means taking it for granted they will just pop back in a bit.Ive watched election nights since the mid 70s and my opinion is Indy2 is a dead duck for at least a decade and possibly forever. They should have stuck to the yardstick of 55% Yes in the polls for at least 6 months before even considering it. The problem they had was that too many of their supporters weren't being rational about that and they risked a split if they weren't seen to push for it after the Brexit referendum. SNP support tends to be cyclical and crashes a bit whenever irrationality on expectations collides with reality and then starts slowly building again as the underlying dissatisfaction with the UK amongst a large portion of the Scottish electorate that fuels their support sets in again. Think their biggest problem is what they do about being pro-EU if there is a hard brexit and that means having a hard border post indy. Paradoxically having the DUP propping up the Tories may help head that scenario off at the pass, because it means that NI's concerns over the border issue very much matter now at Westminster in a way they didn't just 24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkoRaj Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 It's not went anywhere. Nobody is a loonball. It's been clear as day from watching the reactions of young labour voters up here this morning. If labour people like yourself, but more importantly the MPs themselves continue to say this, it'll back fire. You've gained plenty of support from socialists in the SNP who still support independence, but want to back Corbyn, don't ruin it. Everyone that supports independence is a loonball obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loondave1 Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 It's not went anywhere. Nobody is a loonball. It's been clear as day from watching the reactions of young labour voters up here this morning. If labour people like yourself, but more importantly the MPs themselves continue to say this, it'll back fire. You've gained plenty of support from socialists in the SNP who still support independence, but want to back Corbyn, don't ruin it. Aye Ok i see where you are going.Humility all round then and socialism is back !! More than happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scary Bear Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Doesn't surprise me, Corbyn's manifesto was a valentine card to SNP policy and I can see how any SNP supporter could be seduced by the possibility of a left-leaning uk. My theory is all the arsehole Slabbers went blue while swathes of SNP voters were happy to vote Corbyn. That's my take on it too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1320Lichtie Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Aye Ok i see where you are going.Humility all round then and socialism is back !! More than happy. Good. I'm happy to see Labour do well. Although not up here. I have to say I never really saw it coming until maybe a month ago. There's a young lassie on twitter that I've followed since before the Yes vote, Saffron Dickson, she's been an absolute diehard SNP voter, even appearing in promotional videos before the last GE... So I was so surprised to see her come out and say that although she supports Independence she felt that she needed to vote Corbyn as a backing towards Labour for moving in the right direction. To my surprise I seen so many people agree with her and say exactly the same thing. That's when it sort of hit home. This kind of attitude has been replicated by young people interviewed on the news this morning. However Labour up here and Dugdale saying that this is a strong message against another DIVISIVE REFERENDUM is also going down really badly. I reckon that voters from 18-30 will be in the vast majority either Labour or SNP and in the majority YES. Once again, I really wish someone from Scottish Labour and Labour voters themselves would recognise this fact. Up here some seem more interested in the Independence question than the result UK wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scary Bear Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Dear god ! You people are doing the Nats no favours.How many Nats need to go before the alarm bells start ringing in your fantasy world ? Probably have to wait until Brexit is done and then the dust settles. 5 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loondave1 Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Good. I'm happy to see Labour do well. Although not up here. I have to say I never really saw it coming until maybe a month ago. There's a young lassie on twitter that I've followed since before the Yes vote, Saffron Dickson, she's been an absolute diehard SNP voter, even appearing in promotional videos before the last GE... So I was so surprised to see her come out and say that although she supports Independence she felt that she needed to vote Corbyn as a backing towards Labour for moving in the right direction. To my surprise I seen so many people agree with her and say exactly the same thing. That's when it sort of hit home. This kind of attitude has been replicated by young people interviewed on the news this morning. However Labour up here and Dugdale saying that this is a strong message against another DIVISIVE REFERENDUM is also going down really badly. I reckon that voters from 18-30 will be in the vast majority either Labour or SNP and in the majority YES. Once again, I really wish someone from Scottish Labour and Labour voters themselves would recognise this fact. Up here some seem more interested in the Independence question than the result UK wide. I stopped attending PLP meetings such was the Blairite bland shitfest of policy discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crùbag Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Some perspective. It's an SNP landslide. Something May didn't get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trainspotter Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 21 minutes ago, ICTChris said: I kind of posted about this earlier - look at the change in the results in Glasgow Central - 2010 maj 7662 - 2017 maj 2267 East - 10,037 - 75 North - 9295 - 1060 North East - 9222 - 242 for Labour North West - 10367 - 2561 South - 12268 - 2027 South West - 9950 - 60 Before this election I don't think anyone really thought any of these constituencies were in play but if there's another election this year Labour might even be favourites to take back two. I had thought that these places would be safe for the SNP in the post-indyref reconfiguration of Scottish politics (Malcolm Malcolm w**k talk I know). They aren't. Imagine if Corbyn is seen to be building Labour up towards a majority by then. Is it utterly, completely impossible that he wins back most of those seats? Pretty unlikely but what the f**k isn't? Just had a chance to look at the numbers for Rutherglen and Hamilton West - Killen gets in with fewer votes (though with a higher vote share) than Greatrex received in 2015. SNP vote down by over 11,000, which appears to be almost equally split between didn't vote and transfers straight to the Tories. I don't know the area that well as I only moved to the constituency last October but it's hard to work out why the vote collapsed the way it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tintax Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Absolute brass neck of May. She has lost all remaining credibility she may have had left. Her gamble has ended in a complete and utter disaster and she needs to resign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnstoun Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 If SLab had got into bed with the SNP rather than the Tories for this election Theresa May wouldn't be in a position to form a government this morning. SLab may be able to claim some form of pyrrhic victory with an increased number of seats but nationally they have fucked themselves over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capybara Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Labour has not really increased its vote by much. 10k I think but it has more seats. Not that great for Kez as the increase was more to do with Corbyn. I cannot fathom how folk would switch from SNP to Tory. But it looks like they have. Do farmers and fishermen think the Tory will deliver a good deal? How can Angus Robertson lose his seat after being such an effective MP. Still May is finished. She gambled and lost. And now we are to be reliant on the goodwill of the DUP. Not my definition of strong and stable. As for the SNP and the broader yes movement a lot of hard work ahead. I cannot see an independent Scotland anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky88 Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 1 hour ago, GeeJay said: To me, 38% SNP vote is brilliant considering the amount of Yes voters I know that went for Labour yesterday. I don't feel appetite for IndyRef2 has changed at all. The result will make Sturgeon even more feart of calling a referendum, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamin_Nevis Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 I can't be fucked reading several thousand posts since this morning, but my take FWIW: IndyRef2 - Realistically it has to be off the table for at least 5 years, probably more. It can't be an issue unless Brexit is an absolute catastrophe, especially for Scotland. If (and it's probably a near certainty) there's another election before the end of the year the SNP will suffer an even poorer result than last night unless they take it off the table. The Tories managed to empty them from so many seats without putting forward a single policy on this issue. Take it off the table and immediately the attack potential of Davidson, Rennie and Dugdale is hugely blunted. Even if it's on the table, it quite frankly isn't winnable unless Brexit is the aforementioned disaster, and even then I think it'd be pretty close. Theresa May - Genuinely incredible that she is trying to see this out. She called an election seeking a huge majority for a mandate to take Brexit forward on her terms and fucked it up to the extent that she needs to be propped up by a bunch of Mussus Bunfield extremists who despite abortion, homosexuality, don't believe in dinosaurs and promote creationism. The bookies odds on such an occurrence this time yesterday must have been fucking mental. The Tories obviously have the right to try to form a Government, but IMO she doesn't have the right to lead it. Boris would be a clusterfuck, but it would be quite funny. Jeremy Corbyn - Fair fucks to him. We've all to a degree (me included) ripped the pish out of him on here for months, but there's no question he's done superbly to get Labour to the position they're in. The fact that it'll have cretins like McTernan probably still seething is quite magnificent. Can he kick on and produce the goods at another election in a few months? If, and it's a huge "if", the PLP get behind him, it's eminently possible. Tim Farron - My only comment here is that I'm absolutely seething that they came in over 10 seats, hence losing one of my bets. Nicola Sturgeon - Absolutely no question it was a bad night for the SNP. Losing a shedload of seats and slashed majorities in others is dreadful in comparison to 2015. Although I think it's fair to say 2015 was to a huge extent a freak result. The electorate wanted to give Labour a total shoeing and did so in tremendous fashion. I don't think for a minute she should be under threat, mainly because the SNP are still a very dominant party in Scotland, and because I'm not sure who would do a better job. As i've said above, the IndyRef2 issue needs addressed urgently. Another election on the same platform would be a shambles. It would also be interesting to see how the other 3 unionist parties would tackle their campaigns without that as a stick to beat the SNP with. The Greens - Meh UKIP - Absolutely glorious to see them finished. Nuttall resigned and seemingly has deleted his Twitter account. A surprising state of affairs considering he invented it. Absolutely no comeback for these c***s unless something remarkable occurs with Brexit. The 2017 (part I) GE in Emoticons Tories Labour SNP Lib Dems Greens UKIP DUP Whatever happens, we're guaranteed absolute political SCENES for months, possibly years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky88 Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 4 minutes ago, capybara said: Labour has not really increased its vote by much. 10k I think but it has more seats. Not that great for Kez as the increase was more to do with Corbyn. I cannot fathom how folk would switch from SNP to Tory. But it looks like they have. Do farmers and fishermen think the Tory will deliver a good deal? How can Angus Robertson lose his seat after being such an effective MP. Still May is finished. She gambled and lost. And now we are to be reliant on the goodwill of the DUP. Not my definition of strong and stable. As for the SNP and the broader yes movement a lot of hard work ahead. I cannot see an independent Scotland anytime soon. They switch from SNP to Tory because they've always been Tory and have historically voted SNP to keep labour out. Or they're hard Leavers pissed off with Sturgeons disgust at their democratic choice last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedford White Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cerberus Posted June 9, 2017 Share Posted June 9, 2017 Did the LD say no to a coalition? What's the point in them then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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