Granny Danger Posted October 25, 2020 Share Posted October 25, 2020 Pence refusing to self isolate in line with CDC rules despite five of his inner circle testing positive. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 If you are someone who does not follow politics obsessively then now would be a good time to unplug from the US election. The campaign is basically over and there is very little left to happen. Its almost all over bar the voting and even that is well over 1/3 and may soon exceed half way done. Over the next 7 days very little that happens will affect the outcome of the election barring something like a heart attack for Biden or a right wing terrorist attack. But now is when the pundits, bloggers and general know it alls will have the most attention on them, when there will be the least of value to say. So we will have 7 days of shitfesting about politics, individual polls being hyped way out of any proportion of their individual value, snippets about voting procedural issues in random states (its a very unusual election and most states have been struggling over the rules and the mechanics of making it happen, but there has been some clear cherry picking of which issues to highlight). And in general the kind of people who could not point to Illinois on a map suddenly having an itch to offer their deep knowledge of its politics from all the John Hughes films they watched as a kid. Here is where we are: This shows the various states and their electoral college votes in order of their current polling from Democrat to Republican, taken from here. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ Trump has to win everything up to Pennsylvania where he is currently trailing by 6%. He is trailing the national poll by about 9%. That is to say he has to close that down to 3% by polls close with between 1/3 and 1/2 of all votes already cast. There is an expectation that he will continue to slowly make up ground settling on about 8% behind on election day as a trickle of reluctant "lean Republicans" come back. This has been happening where Biden has dropped from being about 10% to 9% over the past 10 or so days. 8 days from now the polls should be about 8 points for Biden and the real drama will start at a) the exit poll (we get a good picture of the actual over all vote) and b) the amount of Shenanigans that can be manufactured (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, (sort of) Minnesota, Michigan etc all have Democratic governors so there is a limit on what can actually be pulled in these states despite what some of the press hype has tried to portray.) Basically Biden can get to 270 votes in states with Democrats in charge. This is not 2000 with Florida and Jeb Bush. Have a good week. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BawWatchin Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 51 minutes ago, dorlomin said: Over the next 7 days very little that happens will affect the outcome of the election barring something like a heart attack for Biden or a right wing terrorist attack. Even that wouldn't deter them. They'd convince themselves that it was all a set up by the Illeftienate to take down the righteous right. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
O'Kelly Isley III Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 If you are someone who does not follow politics obsessively then now would be a good time to unplug from the US election. The campaign is basically over and there is very little left to happen. Its almost all over bar the voting and even that is well over 1/3 and may soon exceed half way done. Over the next 7 days very little that happens will affect the outcome of the election barring something like a heart attack for Biden or a right wing terrorist attack. But now is when the pundits, bloggers and general know it alls will have the most attention on them, when there will be the least of value to say. So we will have 7 days of shitfesting about politics, individual polls being hyped way out of any proportion of their individual value, snippets about voting procedural issues in random states (its a very unusual election and most states have been struggling over the rules and the mechanics of making it happen, but there has been some clear cherry picking of which issues to highlight). And in general the kind of people who could not point to Illinois on a map suddenly having an itch to offer their deep knowledge of its politics from all the John Hughes films they watched as a kid. Here is where we are: This shows the various states and their electoral college votes in order of their current polling from Democrat to Republican, taken from here. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ Trump has to win everything up to Pennsylvania where he is currently trailing by 6%. He is trailing the national poll by about 9%. That is to say he has to close that down to 3% by polls close with between 1/3 and 1/2 of all votes already cast. There is an expectation that he will continue to slowly make up ground settling on about 8% behind on election day as a trickle of reluctant "lean Republicans" come back. This has been happening where Biden has dropped from being about 10% to 9% over the past 10 or so days. 8 days from now the polls should be about 8 points for Biden and the real drama will start at a) the exit poll (we get a good picture of the actual over all vote) and b) the amount of Shenanigans that can be manufactured (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, (sort of) Minnesota, Michigan etc all have Democratic governors so there is a limit on what can actually be pulled in these states despite what some of the press hype has tried to portray.) Basically Biden can get to 270 votes in states with Democrats in charge. This is not 2000 with Florida and Jeb Bush. Have a good week. If all you say is true, and I think you're probably on the money, then things are far from over. The Trumpet can either begin to accept his fate or give us all an impersonation of James Cagney in the closing scene of White Heat. I'm preparing to be entertained [emoji898] 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamin_Nevis Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 4 minutes ago, O'Kelly Isley III said: If all you say is true, and I think you're probably on the money, then things are far from over. The Trumpet can either begin to accept his fate or give us all an impersonation of James Cagney in the closing scene of White Heat. I'm preparing to be entertained Indeed. Trump's insane tweeting will reach previously unseen levels before he (hopefully) loses heavily and throws biggest tantrum of all time, neatly cementing his deserved place as the most mocked, inadequate President in US history. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paco Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 How exactly do we have massive queues and ‘early voting’ to such a large degree in the US? Feels like it’s been going on forever and seems a crazy system to me. The result itself is inevitable. A pretty straightforward win for Biden. Not quite Reagan v Mondale but in a similar ballpark to Obama’s 2008 landslide. Biden be a dreadful one-termer but I guess he isn’t Donald Trump - that seems to be the extent of his campaign as well. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 Bejeepers dont write the orange one off until its done and dusted.....same mistake was made 4 years ago 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 2 hours ago, dorlomin said: b) the amount of Shenanigans that can be manufactured (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, (sort of) Minnesota, Michigan etc all have Democratic governors so there is a limit on what can actually be pulled in these states despite what some of the press hype has tried to portray.) Basically Biden can get to 270 votes in states with Democrats in charge. Good point. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiG Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 What. A. Fucking. Child. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamin_Nevis Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 What. A. Fucking. Child. Fucking hell [emoji23] -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiG Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 For weeks if not months Trump has been touting a replacement healthcare plan for "Obamacare" and prior to being "interviewed" by Stahl she was presented with said plan. Turns out it was simply a collection of executive orders and other bits and pieces but there was no actual healthcare plan included. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Minertaur Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 The full 60 minute interview. Less than 38 minutes long 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 For weeks if not months Trump has been touting a replacement healthcare plan for "Obamacare" and prior to being "interviewed" by Stahl she was presented with said plan. Turns out it was simply a collection of executive orders and other bits and pieces but there was no actual healthcare plan included. It’s always been the impression that it’s really just the Obama part of the Obamacare plan that Trump objects to. Which is a given since nobody seriously expects Trump to have any coherent thoughts on healthcare. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 hour ago, RiG said: What. A. Fucking. Child. When he stands up to leave at the end and grimaces he doesn't look a well man. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnstoun Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 hour ago, RiG said: For weeks if not months Trump has been touting a replacement healthcare plan for "Obamacare" and prior to being "interviewed" by Stahl she was presented with said plan. Turns out it was simply a collection of executive orders and other bits and pieces but there was no actual healthcare plan included. He was touting that his great healthcare plan would be ready in his standard couple of weeks during the 2016 election. No one ever follows up on him 2 weeks after these empty promises are made, so it’s a good strategy for him. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carpetmonster Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 45 minutes ago, welshbairn said: When he stands up to leave at the end and grimaces he doesn't look a well man. To paraphrase Limmy, the sooner he’s in hell trying to sexually assault Thatcher the fucking better. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiG Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Johnstoun said: He was touting that his great healthcare plan would be ready in his standard couple of weeks during the 2016 election. No one ever follows up on him 2 weeks after these empty promises are made, so it’s a good strategy for him. He has been challenged on it (recently) and he either just says it's coming soon or denies he ever said it. Edited October 26, 2020 by RiG 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 1 hour ago, NotThePars said: It’s always been the impression that it’s really just the Obama part of the Obamacare plan that Trump objects to. Which is a given since nobody seriously expects Trump to have any coherent thoughts on healthcare. I remember Trump being overheard in an informal chat with a Canadian (can't remember who) saying Canada had it sussed, healthcare was a minefield in the USA. Basically endorsing socialised medicine. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 I remember Trump being overheard in an informal chat with a Canadian (can't remember who) saying Canada had it sussed, healthcare was a minefield in the USA. Basically endorsing socialised medicine. It’s funny that half the off the cuff statements he gives actually makes him sound much better. Thinking of this and him trying to order milkshakes during intelligence briefings. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EdinburghPar1975 Posted October 26, 2020 Share Posted October 26, 2020 2 hours ago, The Minertaur said: The full 60 minute interview. Less than 38 minutes long I really struggle to understand how any right minded folks can vote for the Tango man to get in again. I listen to the Americast pod and have enjoyed their insight, their interviews with undecided voters and some staunch Republicans are worrying. To hear folks actually say that they hate Trump, what he's done to the Republican party, how he's dealt with COVID, how he's running the country and dealing with things but say that they just have to vote for him as they can't let Biden in as he's 'liberal' is nuts. If you hate him that much don't vote, at least that way you've not voted the other guy in.. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.