Savage Henry Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 (edited) 8 hours ago, Kejan said: I think Trump will win Ohio, Florida, probably North Carolina and Iowa. Biden will win in Pennsylvania, Michigan (two states Trump won) Wisconsin and Minnesota (soft Trump targets). Trump will hold Texas, possibly a lot tighter than usual maybe even by 2-3% Arizona may well vote for Biden, they voted Dem in 2018 and enough people might help the Dems over the line. Georgia may end up like a close Florida, but the Republicans should take it. I cannot see to many places changing hands, then again I'm just a gobshite with an internet connection. The polls have made it almost impossible to see a Trump win, Biden is on average +8/9/10 even. If Trump wins, then surely there's a huge problem with polling in the USA and they are oversampling Democrats? After watching that first debate and his handling of Covid, I thought surely there's no way he can win this. Whilst turnout is quite poor generally in America, I was feeling enough people will vote for Biden, even ones who aren't excited by him and with e.g extra 4-5% turnout surely will be enough to see a Democrat win. The last week or so, and there's no logic, the polls are hardly tightening, but its more a gut feeling than any logic at all, but maybe Trump might sneak it again. So to sound like an absolute moron and as stupid and idiotic, I think Biden will win ; but I can see Trump winning too, The thing that makes it very hard for Trump is the states he won in 16. -Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin - were won by a baw hair. He was an unknown (to a political extent) candidate up against a deeply unpopular Clinton coming in after 8 years of a very disappointing Obama presidency (IMO). Trump was even talking a decent game on foreign affairs in 2016 compared to Hilary's no fly zone in Syria plans. There were a lot of fed up Bernie supporters too who either stayed home or voted Green. A long with the ''ah f**k it,'' he's an arse, but let's see what happens with Trump - all those aligned, some luck of winning the 'right' states, and he stumbled over the line to win the presidency. After four years of him, I just cannot see how enough people who are not hardcore supporters will think 'aye, let's go for four more years of this again.' Enough people will surely hold their nose and vote Democratic with no real love for Biden or Harris, but just get rid of Trump. The only enjoyable thing about a Trump win will be Rachel Maddow on election night along with most of CNN, and Nate Silver trying to explain another statistical failure. The national polling could be within the margin of error and Trump still wins. Just because national polls show Biden well ahead, doesn’t mean he’ll win the electoral college. The polling - on a national level - was almost bang on the money in 2016. It was flawed local polling that made it seem like a shock. There’s a reason 538 is now pretty much the industry standard - their model was by far the most accurate. All that being said, never underestimate the apathy of the American liberal. Edit: and of course 538’s model calculates probability, it doesn’t make predictions. Edited October 21, 2020 by Savage Henry 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 8 hours ago, Jacksgranda said: Some great legal insight there, G D. I did study law at uni. Obviously some of it stuck. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 6 hours ago, Savage Henry said: Edit: and of course 538’s model calculates probability, it doesn’t make predictions. A lot of the site seems to be about sports betting, I wonder how well they do on that? Unfortunately it's mostly on American sports that I don't understand. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 8 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: I did study law at uni. Obviously some of it stuck. My law lecturer told my mother that I should have become a lawyer. It never actually crossed my mind at the time, tbqh. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 Ive been following https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/ No idea if its mad dem polling compamy or a mad trump company but the site always says it uses the last 5 polls in each state 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyAnchor Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 15 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: I did study law at uni. Obviously some of it stuck. OK, Rumpole 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGoon Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baxter Parp Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 #Notacult 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Minertaur Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 (edited) Not sure how clear that is. Odds on certain words/phrases being said at the debate tonight. Malarkey, nobody thought it was possible and beautiful wall looking good to me. Edited October 22, 2020 by The Minertaur Well that screenshot is terrible. Apologies. Go to Sky Bet 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 9 hours ago, welshbairn said: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 On 20/10/2020 at 23:05, jamamafegan said: Trump will win. I think, much like here, there is a silent majority who will vote for the wrong’uns. He didn't even get a majority last time, he lost by 3 million votes. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamin_Nevis Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 Trump apparent greeting about the mics being switched off for the final debate and already accusing the moderator of being biased against him. The tantrum if he loses is going to be utterly fantastic. Hopefully it causes him a fucking aneurysm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiG Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, Day of the Lords said: Trump apparent greeting about the mics being switched off for the final debate and already accusing the moderator of being biased against him. The tantrum if he loses is going to be utterly fantastic. Hopefully it causes him a fucking aneurysm. That's just what he does. He whined like a bitch about the decision to grant consent for the EOWDC but said he would happily take it to the courts. Then, when the judges of both the outer and inner houses laughed him out of court, he moaned about political interference in the Scottish Courts so they would take the challenge to the Supreme Court. Rinse, repeat etc. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 Iran trying to help Trump despite Trump murdering Soulemani, being in bed with Adelson and crippling them with sanctions...... Democrats doing some racism. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 25 minutes ago, welshbairn said: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnstoun Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 3 hours ago, Detournement said: Iran trying to help Trump despite Trump murdering Soulemani, being in bed with Adelson and crippling them with sanctions...... Democrats doing some racism. It’s almost as if 4 more years of Trump does more damage to the US than burning some flags in Tehran. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, Johnstoun said: It’s almost as if 4 more years of Trump does more damage to the US than burning some flags in Tehran. The sanctions are killing Iranians every single day. 4 years of Trump has fucked Iran. Why would they want 4 more? Especially since Biden would pretty much be beholden to Obama on bringing back the nuclear deal which is one of his few achievements. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnstoun Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Detournement said: The sanctions are killing Iranians every single day. 4 years of Trump has fucked Iran. Why would they want 4 more? Especially since Biden would pretty much be beholden to Obama on bringing back the nuclear deal which is one of his few achievements. Which the next president can bin again. The US can’t be trusted to act in good faith, so kick them while they’re down. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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