Granny Danger Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 The Democrats need to find someone soon to challenge Trump. And it needs to be someone inspirational. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aladdin Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: The Democrats need to find someone soon to challenge Trump. And it needs to be someone inspirational. I think it will be one out of Gillibrand, Harris or Klobuchar. Booker will run too but can see the democrats picking the right female candidate this time given the gains they have made amongst women in the mid terms. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arabdownunder Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 I think it will be one out of Gillibrand, Harris or Klobuchar. Booker will run too but can see the democrats picking the right female candidate this time given the gains they have made amongst women in the mid terms.Assuming women voters would be more influenced by a candidate's gender than by their policies is straight out of Hillary's 2016 playbook. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
banana Posted November 7, 2018 Author Share Posted November 7, 2018 Pretty good night for Lord Emperor Trump all things considered Losses where losses were inevitable, holds and gains elsewhere. Will be fascinating to see how the Democrats play this now - too combative and Trump can play victim. Too soft, and Trump will run them over when necessary, or come out looking like a Reasonable Guy (which doesn't help the Dems) for making concessions on things that he likely didn't particularly want in the first place. The circus is about to ramp up a notch. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bully Wee Villa Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 3 hours ago, SramTon said: Congressmen within the House of Representatives are elected on two-year terms, whereas Senators are elected for six years. The Senate elections are staggered so that they still happen every two years, but with only one-third of the seats up for re-election each time. Thanks for this. Another question if I may? Each state seems to have two Senators. But from what I saw the coverage kept focusing on just one of them. For example I heard lots of talk about Cruz but no mention of the other Senator for Texas. When does he have to stand for election? Or does Cruz decide, like a "running mate"? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 2 hours ago, dorlomin said: Oh such tough luck https://uk.news.yahoo.com/ballot-measures-latest-florida-restores-035740592.html I don't think that will benefit either party on a state wide level. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aladdin Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 16 minutes ago, Arabdownunder said: 38 minutes ago, Aladdin said: I think it will be one out of Gillibrand, Harris or Klobuchar. Booker will run too but can see the democrats picking the right female candidate this time given the gains they have made amongst women in the mid terms. Assuming women voters would be more influenced by a candidate's gender than by their policies is straight out of Hillary's 2016 playbook. Not saying it's all that should be taken into account, just that there will be some that see the gains in the female vote and pin that on the increased number of female candidates this year. IMO, the democrats best options for their 2020 candidate are all female anyway. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 (edited) 20 minutes ago, Detournement said: I don't think Thank you for your opinion. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/11/6/18052374/florida-amendment-4-felon-voting-rights-results Quote Black people, who are disproportionately arrested and incarcerated, will benefit the most. In 2016, more than 418,000 black people out of a black voting-age population of more than 2.3 million, or 17.9 percent of potential black voters in Florida, had finished sentences but couldn’t vote due to a felony record, according to the Sentencing Project. (Again, this includes some people convicted of murders and felony sex offenses.) Over a million new voters, a large portion of whom will be black or from lower income groups will be voting in 2020. But according to you this will have no impact on such a tight state because reasons. Edited November 7, 2018 by dorlomin 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inanimate Carbon Rod Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Thanks for this. Another question if I may? Each state seems to have two Senators. But from what I saw the coverage kept focusing on just one of them. For example I heard lots of talk about Cruz but no mention of the other Senator for Texas. When does he have to stand for election? Or does Cruz decide, like a "running mate"? Both elected at different times, Cruz is a presidential mid term candidate the other will be elected at the same time as the presidential elections. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Enjoyed PL’s brief return last night. Imagine calling anyone else in Ted Cruz’s orbit a cuck. The man swung round to Trump immediately after Donny called his wife a nutcase. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 (edited) Scott Walker lost in Wisconsin. Kris Kobach lost in Kansas. Democrats seemed to have gotten solid results in the mid west. Quick take on this so far, the polarisation is deepening but that line is about 46/54 towards the democrats. This will see the Republicans do well in small rural states and the Democrats in more urbanised states. The Democrats should win most presidential races in those circumstances and tend to dominate the House. Each race will have its own features but simply appealing to the base and polarising the debate does not seem to be a winning strategy for the Republicans anymore and demographics are strongly running against them. Edited November 7, 2018 by dorlomin 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 15 minutes ago, dorlomin said: Thank you for your opinion. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/11/6/18052374/florida-amendment-4-felon-voting-rights-results Over a million new voters, a large portion of whom will be black or from lower income groups will be voting in 2020. But according to you this will have no impact on such a tight state because reasons. I checked and Florida prisons are 41% white and 46% black. There's probably more white felons outside prison who would benefit from this though. What do you think the turnout will be in this group? 20% if you are lucky. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Every black felon is going to get ten votes if they join MS-13. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
banana Posted November 7, 2018 Author Share Posted November 7, 2018 19 minutes ago, dorlomin said: Scott Walker lost in Wisconsin. Kris Kobach lost in Kansas. Democrats seemed to have gotten solid results in the mid west. Quick take on this so far, the polarisation is deepening but that line is about 46/54 towards the democrats. This will see the Republicans do well in small rural states and the Democrats in more urbanised states. The Democrats should win most presidential races in those circumstances and tend to dominate the House. Each race will have its own features but simply appealing to the base and polarising the debate does not seem to be a winning strategy for the Republicans anymore and demographics are strongly running against them. It is and has been in the Democrats interest to alter the demographics of the country, you say? That's just conspiracy theory talk right there! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 16 minutes ago, Detournement said: I checked and Florida prisons are 41% white and 46% black. There's probably more white felons outside prison who would benefit from this though. What do you think the turnout will be in this group? 20% if you are lucky. The Florida races were both won by a less than 1% margin. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Henry Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 The Florida races were both won by a less than 1% margin.Just as well Florida has a long and demonstrable history of on-the-level voting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 (edited) On demographics. https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/326995-census-more-americans-have-college-degrees-than-ever-before The number o f US people with collage degrees is steadily increasing and as these groups move through the demography getting older this increases the net % of those will collage degrees. Having a collage degree is now a strong indicator of voting liberal. Since 2013 non Hispanic white children have been the minority of births. More Mexicans Leaving Than Coming to the U.S.Net Loss of 140,000 from 2009 to 2014; Family Reunification Top Reason for Return Asians are likely to become the biggest source of immigration to the US but the near term trend on births, immigration (and EMIGRATION) plus other population trends like ageing show The long term decline of the US was a white, rural country with only high school attainment. The Republicans have turned on presidency into an absolute dumpster fire alienating generally socially conservative Hispanics and economically more conservative Asians who they will need to stem the time of an increasingly educated and urbanised white population. This presidency has been an electoral scorched earth that will not even get a second act to justify the damage. Edited November 7, 2018 by dorlomin 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 A blow to Trump, but he still has his finger on the nuke button. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
banana Posted November 7, 2018 Author Share Posted November 7, 2018 18 minutes ago, dorlomin said: On demographics. https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/326995-census-more-americans-have-college-degrees-than-ever-before The number o f US people with collage degrees is steadily increasing and as these groups move through the demography getting older this increases the net % of those will collage degrees. Having a collage degree is now a strong indicator of voting liberal. Increasing the number of kids being indoctrinated via schooling increases the vote towards 'liberals' you say? Well I never, another conspiracy theory dashed -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AsimButtHitsASix Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Managed to tick the boxes for four of Umberto Ecco's definitions of fascism in two sentences. Impressive. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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