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banana

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Garden-variety totalitarian 'Progressive' ideologue in unabashed projection of totalitarian doctrine/behaviour onto Wrongthinker shocker :rolleyes:

Please continue, this is excellent material.

Edited by banana
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50 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

On demographics.

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/326995-census-more-americans-have-college-degrees-than-ever-before

The number o f US  people with collage degrees is steadily increasing and as these groups move through the demography getting older this increases the net % of those will collage degrees. Having a collage degree is now a strong indicator of voting liberal.

 

All those lefty arty types...  :lol:

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26 minutes ago, DigOutYourSoul said:

Why are all of the liberal celebs strumming themselves over big Beto?

Because he's a talented orator with genuinely progressive politics, who has tapped into the Austin crowd and whipped Texas into a frenzy.  He, Kamala Harris and  Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez  are all pretty energising campaigners.    Also, none of them are Clinton-Dem establishment figures.

And everyone's desperate for a new Obama.

Also, remember that Beto didn't come out of nowhere.  He's been campaigning in Texas for years.  Local issues become national issues, eventually.  

Edited by Savage Henry
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5 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

I’m assuming most voters will vote on a straight ticket one way or another.  Given that I’m struggling to understand the divergence between House gains and Senate losses for the Dems.

 

 

Is it possible that not all people are so partisan that they can look at individual candidates and/or local issues or they may be voting to have a system of checks and balances in place to counteract Trump's more mental shit?

I don't really know because I don't obsessively follow foreign politics. Just dip in and out for a laugh at what the morons are doing now.

And I'm thick as shit as well. Don't forget that.

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5 hours ago, Detournement said:

It looks like the route to power in 2020 just got a lot narrower.

If Florida and Indiana are solid red now then there aren't many swing states remaining. The Rust Belt, Virgina and Nevada.

I wouldn't really write Florida as solid red either - very tight last night and it's not unknown to go Democratic. Trump seems to have a fanbase there but I think a good Democratic candidate could win.

Democrats still need to go for the Rust Belt big timeI reckon. I think they are steadily doing better in the south and making the gap up but the electoral college being an all or nothing thing means that it's not counting for anything right now. If they won a Texas or a Georgia, the prize would obviously be quite massive and guarantee a win but it seems a lot of money/effort for something that is still not quite likely.

It seems to be the case that Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Pensylvania are all very similar and almost come as an all or nothing package. Trump had a brilliant strategy there and probably surprised himself but I think he'll have a harder job of doing that again and it was tight enough to begin with. I think if someone wins three of those, the election will go their way.

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In terms of mid western districts that voted Obama then Trump....

 

obamatrump.png.78d12f14238f27892268a3c1c39f0e12.png

 

 

 

Quote

Compare this to how Democrats performed in Obama-Trump districts, which are working-class areas that are disproportionately in the Midwest and Northeast. At first glance at the table below, it looks like Democrats did pretty well in these districts. But they were aided by incumbent advantage in five of these districts.2 In open or Republican-held Obama-Trump districts, Democrats have officially picked up eight seats.3 Republicans held on to four others and flipped at least one Democratic-held Obama-Trump seat red (the Minnesota 8th), so it was more of a mixed bag.

The Democrats also held onto seats that had voted Romney but switched to Clinton.

Those are affluent educated exburbs that has been relatively Republican before Trump. 

 

Quote

Indeed, a theme of the evening was that suburban areas came up big for Democrats.1 We’ve often used so-called “Romney-Clinton districts” as a stand-in for these areas — districts that voted for Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney in 2012 but switched their allegiance to Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016. Republicans had hoped that these places had voted for Clinton because of an aversion to President Trump, but that they would remain loyal to their more traditionally Republican representatives. That didn’t end up being the case. Not only did Democratic House candidates win most Romney-Clinton districts, but in at least six of the 13 races, they did so by margins that exceeded Clinton’s margin over Trump.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-democrats-took-the-house-on-election-night/

Those proclaiming a "good night" for Trump seem to be relying on Florida being solidly his and the Democrats not completely eviscerating the Republicans. 

 

There is little there to show that Trump has built anything in terms of electoral gains and as I said above the demographics of the US run against their "know nothing\nativist" coalition with the evangelicals every year. More of the white population is becoming educated and urban. Not enough to swing one election, but enough to show a long term trend in the Republicans failing to win a majority in the presidency more than once since Bush 42 (his son Bush 44 did so in 2004).

 

The polarisation trend that has shown to be strengthening in this election is on the wrong side for the Republicans (fwiw I think that polarisation in the UK will work against Labour but that is another slagging match for another thread).

Winning senate seats in North Daokota and clinging on in Texas is not a big pointer to another "red wave". 

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