Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

[Pet Jeden]

56 minutes ago, Tony Ferrino said:

Like we're threatening to jump off the tower block and they'll have to clean up the mess? Sounds about right.

Can’t accept your hysterical comparison. But you are partly right. If you are in a negotiation that both parties want/need to conclude and your opposite number is daft enough or incompetent enough to look like they are going to let the deal fail, then you will make do-able, necessary compromises to get it over the line. Even if, in theory, you are the “stronger” party and even if you think you are in the right.

Edited December 17, 2019 by Pet Jeden

[Ross.]

11 hours ago, Baxter Parp said:

UK banking system 'resilient' to no-deal Brexit, says Bank of England

The scenario, which goes beyond what most analysts would expect even from a worst-case Brexit, involves a UK recession with GDP falling by 4.7%, with interest rates rising to 4% and the unemployment rate going up to 9.2% and is the toughest "war game" test yet thrown at the UK banks.

https://news.sky.com/story/bank-of-england-uk-banking-system-prepared-for-any-no-deal-brexit-11888391

We're fucked but the banks will be fine.

Retail banking will suffer, investment banking will do well, especially those who have already shifted operations teams and departments to Dublin, Paris and Frankfurt.

[LongTimeLurker]

26 minutes ago, Ross. said:

Retail banking will suffer, investment banking will do well, especially those who have already shifted operations teams and departments to Dublin, Paris and Frankfurt.

The City of London has used trusts set up in non-EU tax havens within what's left of the Empire like Jersey and the Cayman Islands to attract vast amounts of money from all kinds of shady characters and maintain London's role as the dominant financial services centre globally. If anything, Brexit probably makes that easier to do. It's more manufacturing and agriculture that potentially have major problems ahead.

[Pet Jeden]

26 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

The EU.

I said what. Not who. 

[Dons_1988]

Seems less of a negotiating tactic and more of Boris trying to re-affirm his 'Get Brexit Done' mantra post election.

[Ross.]

40 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

The City of London has used trusts set up in non-EU tax havens within what's left of the Empire like Jersey and the Cayman Islands to attract vast amounts of money from all kinds of shady characters and maintain London's role as the dominant financial services centre globally. If anything, Brexit probably makes that easier to do. It's more manufacturing and agriculture that potentially have major problems ahead.

The City of London is largely investment banking, which, as I said, will do ok.

Retail banks may be headquartered there but any significant rise in interest rates will hammer their bottom line and profits.

I have no idea what a typical rate is on a personal loan or a mortgage at the moment, but I do know that if banks were to try and pass on a 3.5-4% rise in rates directly to customers, they would have a lot less people borrowing. Instead, they will have to absorb a large part of the rise themselves. A loan with a rate of 6.9% at the moment gives a good 6% to the bank. If the base rate goes up 4%, the banks will most likely initially bump their rates up by a couple of % max. 8.9% loans would only leave a 4% margin.

[LongTimeLurker]

I was expanding on what you were saying more than arguing with it. A thought that crossed my mind when writing that post was what happens on banking if NI is permanently inside the EU customs union but still in the UK due to the backstop and whether that provides a useful loophole for the financial services industry?

[Detournement]

36 minutes ago, Ross. said:

The City of London is largely investment banking, which, as I said, will do ok.

Retail banks may be headquartered there but any significant rise in interest rates will hammer their bottom line and profits.

I have no idea what a typical rate is on a personal loan or a mortgage at the moment, but I do know that if banks were to try and pass on a 3.5-4% rise in rates directly to customers, they would have a lot less people borrowing. Instead, they will have to absorb a large part of the rise themselves. A loan with a rate of 6.9% at the moment gives a good 6% to the bank. If the base rate goes up 4%, the banks will most likely initially bump their rates up by a couple of % max. 8.9% loans would only leave a 4% margin.

If the base rate went up 4% the UK economy would crash. 

Banks are lending and people are taking out mortgages on the assumption rates will be staying low for the long term. There is no reason to put them up. 

[Ross.]

13 hours ago, Baxter Parp said:

UK banking system 'resilient' to no-deal Brexit, says Bank of England

The scenario, which goes beyond what most analysts would expect even from a worst-case Brexit, involves a UK recession with GDP falling by 4.7%, with interest rates rising to 4% and the unemployment rate going up to 9.2% and is the toughest "war game" test yet thrown at the UK banks.

https://news.sky.com/story/bank-of-england-uk-banking-system-prepared-for-any-no-deal-brexit-11888391

We're fucked but the banks will be fine.

 

4 minutes ago, Detournement said:

If the base rate went up 4% the UK economy would crash. 

Banks are lending and people are taking out mortgages on the assumption rates will be staying low for the long term. There is no reason to put them up. 

It was based on the above post and link. I'm not saying it would or it should happen, just adding comment to another effect if it did happen.

16 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

I was expanding on what you were saying more than arguing with it. A thought that crossed my mind when writing that post was what happens on banking if NI is permanently inside the EU customs union but still in the UK due to the backstop and whether that provides a useful loophole for the financial services industry?

Not sure many would bother with NI. Dublin has been a popular choice for anyone moving bodies from London though. Common language, "All the way" in the EU as it is so more stable than NI politically in that respect, and already has a fairly solid and well established financial services industry.

[dorlomin]

WTO again. Same story but from a Canadian perspective. 

 

Quote

 

At the heart of Trump’s ire is the WTO’s existing trade-dispute arrangements — or the so-called seven-member Appellate Body of adjudicators. By constantly blocking any new appointments to the court, he has made it clear that he will cripple the body by not allowing it to maintain its minimum number of three trade judges (there is now only one judge remaining). In effect, Trump has single-handedly shut down the WTO’s only mechanism for resolving trade disputes between countries.

For some reason, Trump is of the belief that the U.S. does not get a fair shake within the WTO. What he really means is that Washington doesn’t win all of its trade disputes with other countries because of what he sees as a decidedly anti-American bias in WTO trade rulings.

He is particularly exercised about the way that trade decisions have favoured China — one of Trump’s incessant targets of his ill-tempered tweets and tariffs. He is upset that the WTO, at least according to The Donald, looks the other way when it comes to China’s penchant for unfair subsidies and the dumping of cheapgoods.

 

 

Quote

 

According to Joao Aguiar Machado, the European Union’s WTO ambassador, “we will (now) have an unprecedented situation in the World Trade Organization, which will no longer be able to deliver binding resolution of trade disputes and will no longer guarantee the right to appeal review.” He goes on to say pointedly: “The actions of one member will deprive other members of their right to a binding and two-step dispute settlement system, even though this right is specifically envisaged in the WTO contract.”

As a major trading nation, this is obviously very bad news for Canada. Starkly put, trade comprises over 60 per cent of Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). And as a country that depends heavily on a rules-based global system, Trump’s insouciance leaves us tremendously exposed economically.

Because Canada is a small to middling power in the world, it doesn’t have the influence to bend other countries to its will. It thus has to rely on multilateral institutions like the WTO to protect and advance its commercial interests. Trump, the trade disrupter-in-chief, poses a serious threat to those interests.

 

https://www.theguardian.pe.ca/opinion/local-perspectives/peter-mckenna-trumps-attempt-to-neutralize-wto-leaves-canada-vulnerable-388837/

Canada has already been forced to swallow a rewritten NAFTA. 

[Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo]

9 hours ago, Ross. said:

I have no idea what a typical rate is on a personal loan or a mortgage at the moment, but I do know that if banks were to try and pass on a 3.5-4% rise in rates directly to customers, they would have a lot less people borrowing. Instead, they will have to absorb a large part of the rise themselves. A loan with a rate of 6.9% at the moment gives a good 6% to the bank. If the base rate goes up 4%, the banks will most likely initially bump their rates up by a couple of % max. 8.9% loans would only leave a 4% margin.

I renewed my mortgage this month so happen to have the rate at hand. Checks notes... Drum roll...

1.74%. 

[Ross.]

9 hours ago, Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo said:

I renewed my mortgage this month so happen to have the rate at hand. Checks notes... Drum roll...

1.74%. 

In my defence, my figures were based on an unsecured personal loan rather than secured. The same logic applies, albeit with smaller margins in terms of %.

[cyderspaceman]

The instant rise in the value of Pound v Euro was a small silver lining for me in the black cloud of Tory victory, but now the fat fucker has even fucked that up. c**t. 

[NotThePars]

These people are Mark Corrigan when he tries to get his mugged belongings back.

[Ross.]

3 hours ago, cyderspaceman said:

The instant rise in the value of Pound v Euro was a small silver lining for me in the black cloud of Tory victory, but now the fat fucker has even fucked that up. c**t. 

Dropping quite nicely again before I head home tomorrow night for a few days.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I renewed my mortgage this month so happen to have the rate at hand. Checks notes... Drum roll...
1.74%. 

That's an excellent deal.

Have 2 years left on my fixed interest deal - by that point will only have 3 years left of my mortgage - thankfully!!

[doulikefish]

The new brexit bill is introduced and chapter 34 is missing.......workers rights

[welshbairn]

1 hour ago, doulikefish said:

The new brexit bill is introduced and chapter 34 is missing.......workers rights

And the minimum wage rise will only happen "provided economic conditions allow", and over 5 years. But there will be bridge to Northern Ireland, so that's ok. (will there f**k, like his garden bridge in London and an airport on the Thames estuary)

Edited December 19, 2019 by welshbairn

[zidane's child]

4 hours ago, doulikefish said:

The new brexit bill is introduced and chapter 34 is missing.......workers rights

F**k it into them for voting Tory.

What else did they expect?

 

[GNU_Linux]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/boris-johnson-withdrawal-bill-brexit-child-refugees-dubs-amendment-a9253841.html?utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=Feed

Them bloody immigrants comin 'ere to be reunited with their families