Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

[Boo Khaki]

Just now, Granny Danger said:

That’s true but like @ayrmad I don’t think permission is around the corner.

Well the original premise was 'a long way off'. 'Around the corner' and 'a long way off' are rather arbitrary. 

Look, it looks grim as f**k at Westminster right now, and yes, I agree that there's no prospect of the likes of Johnson suddenly having a p***k of conscience and agreeing to a Section 30. However, you need to remember that this is a country that embraced Thatcher, but even then, eventually got so sickened by the cow that she had to go, and shortly after, her bunch of mutants followed her out of office entirely. Things don't stay the same for long in politics, even when things are bleak.

We just keep re-electing pro-indi politicians and representatives in the meantime, and going by the change in opinions over the past ten years or so, it's a matter of time before pro-Independence isn't just a sizeable majority, but the overwhelming preference. No UK PM will be able to ignore that indefinitely, and if they do, then you're into territory where extreme things such as a UDI actually do become viable because of the likelihood of widespread international support.

It's a marathon, not a sprint.

[Malky3]

20 minutes ago, git-intae-thum said:

Eh...Not quite true...as I pointed out in said other thread.

If.....and it is an if......the clear will of the Scottish people is consistently ignored, there will be a mechanism through Scotcourts to test the claim of right.

Obviously not best case scenario, but a definite (and more importantly peaceful) route.

Erm - I hate to point this out - but the will of the Scottish Electorate suggests that they don't want Scottish Independence and that it's the SNP that keeps ignoring us. 

55% of us said "f**k Off" 

[Dan Steele]

7 minutes ago, git-intae-thum said:

It's a win win. Should a legal challenge be unsuccessful, then I don't think Scots would like their new supposed subordinate position within the UK

I think in the light of the unfolding Brexit fiasco and the marginalising/ ignoring of Scottish input many more Scots are already coming round to the fact we are more than ever in a subordinate position.

[Granny Danger]

8 minutes ago, git-intae-thum said:

If, as is generally held under Scots law, the people are sovereign, I would suggest that if strong evidence was gathered showing the clear and settled will, then a there is every chance of mounting a successful legal case to dissolve the union.

It's a win win. Should a legal challenge be unsuccessful, then I don't think Scots would like their new supposed subordinate position within the UK

In such a scenario, watch that pressure grow.

Like I say I hope I’m wrong.

7 minutes ago, Boo Khaki said:

Well the original premise was 'a long way off'. 'Around the corner' and 'a long way off' are rather arbitrary. 

Look, it looks grim as f**k at Westminster right now, and yes, I agree that there's no prospect of the likes of Johnson suddenly having a p***k of conscience and agreeing to a Section 30. However, you need to remember that this is a country that embraced Thatcher, but even then, eventually got so sickened by the cow that she had to go, and shortly after, her bunch of mutants followed her out of office entirely. Things don't stay the same for long in politics, even when things are bleak.

We just keep re-electing pro-indi politicians and representatives in the meantime, and going by the change in opinions over the past ten years or so, it's a matter of time before pro-Independence isn't just a sizeable majority, but the overwhelming preference. No UK PM will be able to ignore that indefinitely, and if they do, then you're into territory where extreme things such as a UDI actually do become viable because of the likelihood of widespread international support.

It's a marathon, not a sprint.

I agree it’s a marathon.  However this is not developing in a vacuum.

I suspect, as do many others, that Brexit isn’t an end it’s a means to an end.  That end is deregulation, populism and laws and regulations that will mean those with power will gain more power and those with little power will have less.

That, added to the sort of social media manipulation we saw with the Leave campaign, will make it far harder to win people over to Independence than it is at present.

 

[Busta Nut]

Is there somewhere I can see a list of who voted what in the last two votes? BBC have a enter your post code thing but I want a list.

[Guest Jedi]

The longer Brexit is stalled the less chance there is of a Section 30 order as suggested. There will have to be an amendment vote on a 2nd EU Ref at some point. The numbers will be tight but it could go through (imagine if it was a tie and Berow had the casting vote!) If that comes to pass, it would presumably be held next summer. There is no way that a Section 30 order would be granted in the midst of that. 

On the other hand if there is a GE (which is less likely if a 2nd Ref gets through), a Tory majority or Tory/Lib Dem coalition would as others said continue to block a Section 30.

The only scenario I reckon at the moment which can feed a 2nd Independence Ref is Brexit passing with this deal, fairly soon, and a later GE resulting in a strong SNP result. 

Again, the longer Brexit drags on, or is even taken off the table, we are in stasis.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

A lot would depend on what Farage does.

If the Brexit Party stand in the General Election then there won't be a Tory majority.

[Benjamin_Nevis]

27 minutes ago, Boo Khaki said:

Entirely possible, but even David Cameron was strident in asserting that it's not the role of the UK Prime Minister to obstruct the will of the Scots electorate. Extremist arseholes like Johnson will only be in power for so long before even England wakes up to reality and restores some semblance of common sense down there.

I'm not so sure. We live in very poisonous times these days. Social media, "fake news" and all the other Trumpian unpleasantness is here to stay for a while. Hoping it goes away is naive in the extreme, imo. 

[sophia]

7 minutes ago, Busta Nut said:

Is there somewhere I can see a list of who voted what in the last two votes? BBC have a enter your post code thing but I want a list.

This sort of thing. Labour, doncha just love them

[O'Kelly Isley III]

Well the original premise was 'a long way off'. 'Around the corner' and 'a long way off' are rather arbitrary. 
Look, it looks grim as f**k at Westminster right now, and yes, I agree that there's no prospect of the likes of Johnson suddenly having a p***k of conscience and agreeing to a Section 30. However, you need to remember that this is a country that embraced Thatcher, but even then, eventually got so sickened by the cow that she had to go, and shortly after, her bunch of mutants followed her out of office entirely. Things don't stay the same for long in politics, even when things are bleak.
We just keep re-electing pro-indi politicians and representatives in the meantime, and going by the change in opinions over the past ten years or so, it's a matter of time before pro-Independence isn't just a sizeable majority, but the overwhelming preference. No UK PM will be able to ignore that indefinitely, and if they do, then you're into territory where extreme things such as a UDI actually do become viable because of the likelihood of widespread international support.
It's a marathon, not a sprint.

This, entirely this.

A bit of context for those of you on here under 60 years of age. In my lifetime I've seen the SNP go from being a comically-regarded group of true believers who were tangential to Scottish/UK politics, to becoming the dominant force in Scotland.

We never thought the Soviet empire would implode, and with it the Berlin Wall. The Vietnam War eventually ended, and peace of sorts has returned to Northern Ireland. A gerrymandered voting system in 1979 delayed a Scottish Parliament but the will of the people prevailed. I could go on.

Every day of this extreme right-wing Johnson Government will inversely reduce public support; there is only so long they can stave off recession and the further fraying of the social fabric. We are currently in a feeding frenzy and the real effects of Brexit will kick in soon enough.

Labour retaining Corbyn as leader will aid the independence cause, and I predict that significant numbers of English people will consider moving to Scotland in the years to come - seriously.

Events, as someone once said.... keep the faith people.

[Malky3]

9 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

A lot would depend on what Farage does.

If the Brexit Party stand in the General Election then there won't be a Tory majority.

Straw clutching. We have a Brexit Withdrawal Agreement now so the single issue Farage's party stands for it gone. 

I think the Conservatives will land a huge majority if they can get a General Election and the Labour Party might not even finish as the second biggest party after the Corbyn years. 

Scotland would be a more interesting battle ground. I suspect that the SNP will stand on an Independence mandate so much will depend on how the majority Unionist vote is split. If Labour are seen as useless as they have been the Conservatives might even pick up more Scottish seats. 

Edited October 22, 2019 by Malky3

[Boo Khaki]

1 minute ago, Day of the Lords said:

I'm not so sure. We live in very poisonous times these days. Social media, "fake news" and all the other Trumpian unpleasantness is here to stay for a while. Hoping it goes away is naive in the extreme, imo. 

It's not 'hoping it goes away'. I don't expect it to go away any time soon, just that people will become more and more wise to it over time. The folks who still get their entire world view from reading the Daily Mail and such are becoming thinner on the ground with every passing day. As much as the US has an endless capacity to surprise, I don't expect Trump to win a 2nd term, there are signs that 'mericans are actually waking up to his shithousery and he's losing popularity even in the more extreme places that got him elected in the first place. Similarly with Johnson. Whatever extreme Britnat/Little Englander malaise England is going through right now, that's not going to last forever. Post Brexit, it'll be a lot more difficult for someone to get elected on the back of appealing to that lunatic fringe, when the issue that's motivating and coalescing the lunatic fringe is no longer an issue.

Again, I'm in agreement, the picture is bleak, but history shows that extreme governments tend to run their course fairly quickly before common sense kicks back in. It really boils down to a semantic argument about what you or I regard as 'quickly'.

[Granny Danger]

15 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

A lot would depend on what Farage does.

If the Brexit Party stand in the General Election then there won't be a Tory majority.

Possibly.  It depends where we are on a ‘deal’.

[Cerberus]

A lot would depend on what Farage does.

If the Brexit Party stand in the General Election then there won't be a Tory majority.

Brexit party for hard core Brexiteers. Lib Dems for normal human beings.

[Dunning1874]

3 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

Five Labour MPs rebelled against their party's position by voting for the government's Brexit bill timetable motion.

 

They were:

 

Kevin Barron

Jim Fitzpatrick

Caroline Flint

Kate Hoey

John Mann

 

5 of the 6 who voted with the Government on Saturday. They really need to be kicked out of the Labour Party.

 

Then there is the shower of spineless b*****ds like Gloria de Piero - they are probably worse IMHO - at least the first 5 have consistently been c***s.

 

Those were all expected and are either retiring or already know they’re being deselected at the next election anyway. The rest of the 19 who voted for the bill are of considerably more interest and while I’m not exactly a big fan of Labour, I am looking forward to Jo Swinson explaining how every austerity loving, and probably one-time Brexit supporting, snake she’s inviting is a natural Liberal while the media savage Corbyn (who if we’re being honest is as tactically astute as Hopkin without Martindale) for losing the likes of Caroline Flint as if her whip withdrawal wasn’t a rare display of his competence.

Edited October 22, 2019 by Dunning1874

[welshbairn]

5 minutes ago, Dunning1874 said:

Gloria de Piero

Shh...Hoping to persuade Clyde fans he's an imminent new recruit from Gil Vicente. 

[Michael W]

If the opposition were confident Johnson would be sunk they'd have taken the election already. As it stands we're probably looking at a Conservative majority as Labour's support has tanked under pressure from the Lib Dems. 

Farage scored a massive own goal last week for the Brexit party by demanding an extension because he didn't like Johnson's deal. Most Brexiters (even the no deal variety) seem taken in by Johnson and his deal so what can the Brexit party actually offer that the Tories can't? Offer no deal? Fine, but there's an offer of a seemingly palatable* deal instead so why bother with them. Johnson can legitimately point at them and say they will delay Brexit further. 

Unless Corbyn can find a way of turning the talk away from Brexit and onto social policies etc then Labour are inflicting little damage on the Tories. His offer of a second referendum is too late and the damage has been done. Leavers don't trust him a jot either - a unique achievement, there. 

As for Johnson? Provided he isn't dead in a ditch somewhere, he'll have again done things he said he wouldn't (request extension, have Northern Ireland treated differently, still be in the EU after 31 October) and be facing the electorate asking for the opportunity to deliver Brexit. Given actions in the past have failed to damage him, I don't see why these will do so now. Especially given he has the hard Brexiters all in line behind him. 

*it's not a good deal but the hard Brexiters are behind it because the backstop is gone and they can bin transition on 01 January 2021and that's all they're bothered about. 

[Jambomo]

Sadly I agree.  Here is my rationale.
There will be a GE sometime in the next six months, Johnstone will get a majority government.  That government will refuse the request for a further Referendum.
For people who say “well if x, y or z happens, they’ve got to grant another Referendum” the sad reality is they don’t and they won’t.
I asked in another thread “what do we do then?”; answers there were none.
 

If the Tories keep Johnson as PM we might have some hope. He’s refusing now but is a total loose cannon. With Johnson it’s a case of finding the right leverage that will keep him on power/help him make money, he is definitely the sort that would do a complete 180 on any decision.

[Brother Blades]

I predicted just last week that Johnston would get a deal through parliament. i know more than you think.....

You can’t even spell your glorious leaders name correctly, why should anyone take you seriously?

You are a spamming troll, please just stop repeating the £12.6b trope, you know it’s a useless figure, as has been demonstrated to you time & time again.

If you really want to know what cuts the newly Independent Scottish government would make, it’ll be up to them, whether it be labour or SNP.
One thing for sure, if cuts are actually required, it’ll be to suit the Scottish nation, not just our overlords in Etonville.
I personally don’t buy into your bullshit & lies.

[Brother Blades]

Sadly I agree.  Here is my rationale.
There will be a GE sometime in the next six months, Johnstone will get a majority government.  That government will refuse the request for a further Referendum.
For people who say “well if x, y or z happens, they’ve got to grant another Referendum” the sad reality is they don’t and they won’t.
I asked in another thread “what do we do then?”; answers there were none.
 

No offence personally, but we’ve all witnessed your skewed rationale before.