Sooky Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 Bit surreal seeing Philip Hammond going from Chancellor to one of the chief Tory rebels within weeks.Was on R4 this morning saying he’s been a member of the Conservative party for 45 years and won’t be pushed out by people (Cummings) who are not even a party member. Says he’ll fight a legal challenge against any attempts to deselect him as his local association readopted him as their candidate last night. The civil war escalates. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 5 minutes ago, Paco said: If Johnson goes towards No Deal and an election, which it looks exceptionally likely he will do, then it becomes relatively worthless for the Brexit Party to bother. There’ll undoubtedly be a pact of sorts there, with Farage standing in a Brexity heartland unopposed so he can become a Cabinet Minister. If that does happen, Labour/Lib Dems/Greens/SNP absolutely have to get together and have a similar pact, or it’ll be a landslide. In a FPTP election there is nothing to be gained by splitting the Remain vote in what it is a de facto second referendum. Labour won’t enter into any sort of electoral pact. I honestly can’t see the SNP doing so either. Johnson might go full “No Deal Brexit” to stop Farage’s mob from standing but that will lose him support in some key geographical areas. I also think that if he did that then won he would renege on his pledge which would be hilarious in some fucked up dystopian way. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 24 minutes ago, dorlomin said: The Lib Dems want a referendum before an election. Labours position was yesterday an election at any opportunity but has been amended (perhaps) an election so long as no deal is not going to happen (I think). Broadly, remain has a majority of the public as per polling (only valid if you accept polling) but a majority of seats may be leave. Remain is very strong in the urban centres while leave is more spread among the marginals such the midlands such as the briefly famous Peterborough. You can count on a big collapse of the Brexit party but I suspect a hardening of positions since 2017 would mean it would not be as big as UIKIPs fall then. VONC> caretaker government> new referendum seen through parliament> A50 extension negotiated> GE set for after the referendum has been my wildly silly best possible outcome for a few weeks. But what would I know. You probably know as much as anyone else. We are in totally unchartered waters. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 Lib Dems suggesting an electoral pact with Remain Tories. You simply love to see it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dons_1988 Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 Farage saying brexit party won’t stand in a GE if boris promises no deal. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted September 3, 2019 Author Share Posted September 3, 2019 The people who camp outside Westminster and spend their whole time shouting and waving flags really need to get a job. Utter minters 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 1 minute ago, John Lambies Doos said: The people who camp outside Westminster and spend their whole time shouting and waving flags really need to get a job. Utter minters They are loaded. There was a Guardian article that said they rent a house in the same street as JRM. The main shouty guy is a precious gems dealer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 (edited) 46 minutes ago, Paco said: If that does happen, Labour/Lib Dems/Greens/SNP absolutely have to get together and have a similar pact, or it’ll be a landslide. In a FPTP election there is nothing to be gained by splitting the Remain vote in what it is a de facto second referendum. Labour has a significant minority of leave MPs and actually has a leave majority of voters, or at least did last time I seen polling. The SNP and LD's are set to make gains vs Labour, so any "pact" would either be seen as a betrayal by Labours members by handing seats to them or seen as a betrayal of the SNP and LDs by handing seats they think they can win to Labour. Farage has zero seats and only a very long shot chance at two or three, he has nothing to give up other than his vanity project. The issue does not line up on party lines other than the SNP, LDs and Brexit Party. Edited September 3, 2019 by dorlomin 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted September 3, 2019 Author Share Posted September 3, 2019 They are loaded. There was a Guardian article that said they rent a house in the same street as JRM. The main shouty guy is a precious gems dealer. He really is quite shouty... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said: The people who camp outside Westminster and spend their whole time shouting and waving flags really need to get a job. Utter minters Yeah they should spend their lives posting about politics on a football forum instead. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 27 minutes ago, Dons_1988 said: Farage saying brexit party won’t stand in a GE if boris promises no deal. 22 minutes ago, MixuFixit said: There we go. Whole thing was a charade That’s old news and Johnson hasn’t committed to that yet. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 Good summary of the negotiations from a Telegraph hack (believe it or not). Apart from the sheer ignorance of the UK side and their total obsession with internal Tory party politics, the big mistake on the UK side was declaring A50 without any kind of thought out plan, and agreeing to the EU's demand for a two phase Brexit, essentially expecting Parliament to sign up for a pig in a poke with the WA with no idea how a final settlement might look. The EU probably thought that it would be a good tactic to bring home how daft leaving was, but they didn't account for the suicidal stubbornness of the ERG and DUP, and May's craven submission to them. https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/peter-foster-brexit-longread 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 (edited) European political parties tend to have to negotiate coalitions so the people who get to the top tend to be the ones who can work out the maze of competing interests and get their party out top without "betraying" their core voters. Here in the UK the parties tend to focus on absolute morality between the big two and it all being a kind of winner takes all approach (you gain the executive and legislative power if you can convenience about 42% of the population to back you ) The other parties tmake their running out of a "plague on both their houses" type message. So the people who get to the top of UK politics are those who can whip up the most hysteria among their voters, not negotiate a complex deal. Edited September 3, 2019 by dorlomin 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dons_1988 Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 That’s old news and Johnson hasn’t committed to that yet.Well, I’m sorry 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacksgranda Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 55 minutes ago, Granny Danger said: We are in totally unchartered waters. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 18 minutes ago, Dons_1988 said: Well, I’m sorry He effectively has committed to Farage's terms by offering nothing for the EU to negotiate on to avoid a hard Brexit. The pretence of wanting a deal is purely cosmetic to tempt Tory rebels to stay onside. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted September 3, 2019 Author Share Posted September 3, 2019 Yeah they should spend their lives posting about politics on a football forum instead.Fair doos [emoji23] 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 The biggest obstacle to the legislation to stop No Deal is the Lords. To avoid a filibuster they will probably need to suspend/change standing orders and many of them might be reluctant to do that. The Lords’ Speaker, Norman Fowler, seems sympathetic to the attempts at stopping No Deal so he might prove pivotal. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 (edited) When people like Greive, Starmer and perhaps Falconer get their heads together to draft something, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/sep/03/commons-showdown-looms-in-battle-over-no-deal-brexit-live?page=with:block-5d6e4e1f8f082da28762c6af#block-5d6e4e1f8f082da28762c6af Quote This is a masterful piece of drafting: All stages of the Bill in Commons on Wednesday 2nd Reading at 3pm, all remaining stages 5pm to 7pm Govt cannot try to prorogue Parliament this week - this motion takes control of NI Executive Act and prevents a debate before Monday https://twitter.com/cgwOMT/status/1168838542350540800 … Quote Cuts out stalling tactics from Govt - no sit in private On Monday 9th no proceedings taken prior to any Commons Consideration of Lords Amdts - so prorogation couldn't happen until after this. Commons can't adjourn this week until after Speaker reports on any RA Edited September 3, 2019 by dorlomin 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted September 3, 2019 Share Posted September 3, 2019 Looks like Johnson has been caught in a lie. No big surprise but this one could prove embarrassing. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-prorogue-parliament-brexit-dominic-cummings-email-court-scotland-a9089911.html 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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