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Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.


John Lambies Doos

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Talk of a run off between the most success MP option on Monday/Wednesday with May's deal. Things could move quickly if the MP's choice wins, with just the Political Declaration needing changed with the EU. They'd have to have an longer extension to get the legislation through, though not past the new EU parliament opening. and if it's a customs union and/or single market deal the ERG would go fucking mental and I think May would sooner call for a General Election than drop her red lines.

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5 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Talk of a run off between the most success MP option on Monday/Wednesday with May's deal. Things could move quickly if the MP's choice wins, with just the Political Declaration needing changed with the EU. They'd have to have an longer extension to get the legislation through, though not past the new EU parliament opening. and if it's a customs union and/or single market deal the ERG would go fucking mental and I think May would sooner call for a General Election than drop her red lines.

That should only happen if May agrees to accept Parliament’s decision.  She can’t agree to a run-off then say she won’t accept the result of it.

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Labour Confidence and Supply deal with SNP in exchange for a new Edinburgh Agreement.


You would have thought a Labour/SNP pact would result in a Labour landslide in England and an SNP sweep in Scotland, were there to be an election tomorrow. Trouble with that is, Labour don’t seem willing to sacrifice the latter for the former.
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1 minute ago, Savage Henry said:

 


You would have thought a Labour/SNP pact would result in a Labour landslide in England and an SNP sweep in Scotland, were there to be an election tomorrow. Trouble with that is, Labour don’t seem willing to sacrifice the latter for the former.

 

Not sure how a pact would help Labour in England.

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1 hour ago, Jedi said:

Thought it would be closer than 58, but there we are. So, having had 8 motions already rejected, possibly 2 or 3 of them come back on Monday to be voted down again now. 

Off the table now....Her deal

                                           No deal

                                           Norway (the only 'moderate' Leave option)

                                           Revoking A50

In play...Ken Clarke's customs union (whatever that quite means), but set to be bulleted again on Monday. a 2nd Ref (most Tories still won't back this), and some fudged Lab version of a customs union (also set to be bulleted on Monday)

Only possible route at the moment looks to be take the longer extension if the EU offer it, take part in EU elections (a waste of time), and surely hold a GE.

With regards to a GE, no way can Corbyn become PM as he will never secure enough support in England and in Scotland the SNP will probably just about sweep the board. So, outcome of that, another minority Tory govt with a different leader (possibly Johnson). 

It looks now that the Commons will never reach a consensus. Yet again even if they agreed some form of Customs Union, the EU could quite easily reject that as it is cherry picking.

Even if a 2nd Ref was held and Remain won...basically when will round 3 take place? Only a matter of time (and another Tory govt) until that happens. 

Meanwhile, Indy Ref 2 is still off the table as there is no clarity on this whole sham.

 

 

If they agree some form of customs union there is no way the EU will reject it.

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They are saying at  the debriefing that she may bring it back as a celebrity death match between thrice rejected May deal v  a CU deal

DUP will support a CU deal. I suspect TIG will as well and Tory remainers - it would depend what Labour and the SNP do.

 

That's assuming of course that is the choice.

 

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16 minutes ago, Savage Henry said:

 


You would have thought a Labour/SNP pact would result in a Labour landslide in England and an SNP sweep in Scotland, were there to be an election tomorrow. Trouble with that is, Labour don’t seem willing to sacrifice the latter for the former.

 

Only after the election. The DUP went into the last election without a deal.

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https://www.nottinghampost.com/news/uk-world-news/rushcliffe-mp-ken-clarke-finally-2694125

If this is all it takes to get Brexit then it doesn't sound too bad.  Really depends how much people want to be able to strike trade deals with other countries.

I'd assume that all the other 'stuff' like ECJ, freedom of movement/labour, EU Parliament interference, etc would not apply so the benefits would outweigh the cons.  Reduced divorce bill maybe, some sort of regional immigration relaxation as well.

I've got a lot of time for Ken Clarke, he knows what he is talking about.

Clowns like Bill Cash haven't helped themselves here.  Ken Clarke - one of the most pro Europe Conservatives of all time.  His compromise deal might just do the job and you know for a fact if he is involved it will make sense.

Should offer something to everyone, hardcore Nat, left wing basket case, right wing tories, centre ground remain/leave as well.

Edited by UsedToGoToCentralPark
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17 minutes ago, virginton said:

You'd think that after 170 incorrect hot takes in a row that welshbairn would take the hint and chuck it, but seemingly not.

Tbf I don't think anyone has called just about anything right so far about Westminster, Brussels more so,

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Tbf I don't think anyone has called just about anything right so far about Westminster, Brussels more so,


Nobody has called it correctly on any level, let alone the P&B talking bollocks shop. Anyone who claims to have a fixed prediction on how this will turn out is lying.
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Just now, UsedToGoToCentralPark said:

If Ken Clarke's proposal got the nod would that mean we dont need EU elections?

Don't think so, knowing the EU they've probably already got a version drawn up in a political declaration. 

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3 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

You’ve been wronger than most.  

At least I ticked the right box. Most of what I've said was just repeating what various pundits and MPs have indicated.

Edited by welshbairn
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