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John Lambies Doos

Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

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I don't think it's a done deal that she'll lose the vote yet.

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9 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Only options would be revoking Article 50 or a hard Brexit.

Yip.  I’ve said before if it’s that binary choice Parliament will revoke Article 50.

8 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said:

The EU doesn't want a no deal scenario anymore than every sensible person in the UK wants one.

Absolutely.

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May speaking in parliament just now; she has a hoarse voice, seems tired and a bit broken. The benches behind her are relatively sparsely populated which is extremely unusual.  

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My prediction from the beginning of this shambles was that there would be a cobbled together deal that would allow the government to use semantics to say that 'they've won'.

I feel no joy in believing that this what will happen tonight.

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Individual Tory Brexiteers saying they'll back the deal tonight. DUP saying it's out - but could they abstain rather than vote against it? 

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6 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said:

My prediction from the beginning of this shambles was that there would be a cobbled together deal that would allow the government to use semantics to say that 'they've won'.

I feel no joy in believing that this what will happen tonight.

I said the same, or that the negotiations would drag on indefinitely and we'd never leave.

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3 minutes ago, renton said:

Individual Tory Brexiteers saying they'll back the deal tonight. DUP saying it's out - but could they abstain rather than vote against it? 

Duncan Smith on the radio this morning saying that abstaining on a decision of this magnitude and import would be cowardly.  So yes they might.

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2 minutes ago, jamieson87 said:

DUP voting against.  

 

Almost certain for a loss now, I reckon by about 120-150.

Aye just take a look at the Gov benches whilst May is speaking. She's done for.

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6 minutes ago, renton said:

Individual Tory Brexiteers saying they'll back the deal tonight. DUP saying it's out - but could they abstain rather than vote against it? 

I was thinking that but Laura Kuenssberg says they'll definitely vote against. Wouldn't surprise me to see some about faces today though.

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Have the DUP confirmed that they are voting against the deal? All I can see is that they're not voting for it - leaving the door open to abstain.

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1 minute ago, Adamski said:

Have the DUP confirmed that they are voting against the deal? All I can see is that they're not voting for it - leaving the door open to abstain.

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1 minute ago, Adamski said:

Have the DUP confirmed that they are voting against the deal? All I can see is that they're not voting for it - leaving the door open to abstain.

Looks like they have aye, LK reporting as such.

May looks fucked and her time as PM is coming to an end. Couldn't happen to a worse woman, get it right round her (even though i've lost money). 

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There are plenty in the Tory/DUP ranks thinking at this moment as to how they can vote with the government so they can hold on to the power they have, but at the same time make it look like they still support the hardest Brexit and 'the will of the people'.

Expect lots of indignant blustering and empty words from these 'Brexiteers'....designed purely to fool the ignoarnt and racist amongst their constituents.....before they shuffle through the Yes lobby with their leader.

 

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1 minute ago, jamieson87 said:

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Ah, thanks. Didn't see that.

Any estimates of how many MPs are declared as voting one way or another as it stands? I've still got a feeling that she might find a way through this e.g. ERG abstaining.

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4 minutes ago, jamieson87 said:

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Looks like Kuennsberg is cracking.  That posh articulation soon

to be replaced by defo this, and defo that.

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It's almost impossible to predict what's going to happen in this crazy Brexit world. But May does look done for and I don't know where she goes after a defeat tonight.

May resigns

Leadership contest

Article 50 extended (at the very least £1b per month)

Hard Brexiteer wins Leadership contest and comes up against the same problems.

General Election? Peoples vote?  

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I'd struggle to see any outcome other than a Tory majority if another general election was held at the moment. If the vote goes against them tonight then it's probably their best chance of getting their deal through.

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6 minutes ago, Adamski said:

I'd struggle to see any outcome other than a Tory majority if another general election was held at the moment. If the vote goes against them tonight then it's probably their best chance of getting their deal through.

A large number of Tory MP's wouldn't vote for the deal as it stands. A larger majority would not necessarily allow them to push the deal through.

Besides, the deal as it stands, is very unpopular with the general public is the polls are to be believed. 

There is no way that they would campaign behind the current deal should their be a general election.  

What would they campaign behind then you may ask....

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Edited by jamieson87

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At the moment I'm less than certain it'll be a three figure loss, could be a lot closer that might offer May a crack of light? Seems to be a steady trickle of Tory MPs saying they'll now vote for the deal having previously voted against.

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