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John Lambies Doos

Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

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4 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Might just bung a few quid on Yes.

15.0 on Betfair exchange.

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49 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

The worst scenario would be a GE with May stepping down and Boris, who is by far the most popular amongst Tory members, becoming Prime Minister. That would complete the insanity of this decade, along with fascists taking over the European Parliament in May. I feel like I'm in a Star Trek style nightmare alternative universe.

Best chance for a Yes vote. Sturgeon would be almost incumbent to hold one.

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20 minutes ago, dirty dingus said:
Government motion 12/03/2019 Re Withdrawal to pass (Void if no vote - Brexit Specials
 

No

1/18

Yes

11/2
 
Paddy Power thinks it's a cert to fail.

Was listening to 5Live, they had the ‘politics man from Ladbrokes’ on!  I’m astounded that Ladbrokes do so much betting on politics that they have a specific person.

He said the minute that Cox’s opinion was known the odds against May’s deal passing skyrocketed.

 

Edited by Granny Danger

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20 minutes ago, dirty dingus said:
Government motion 12/03/2019 Re Withdrawal to pass (Void if no vote - Brexit Specials
 

No

1/18

Yes

11/2
 
Paddy Power thinks it's a cert to fail.

1/33 and 7/1 now.

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I'll go with the bookies view.  They're more trustworthy than politicians.

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Assuming no abstentions, 132 MPs need to change their vote from last time.  That’s a huge ask.

 

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8 minutes ago, jamieson87 said:

That's yer ERG and DUP saying no now too.

If that's the case then that's all she wrote for May's deal and perhaps for May herself. Extension here we come:(

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Yep, that's May's deal dead in the water now.

Surely hesding towards a general election or a second referendum now.

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Surely they will rule out a no deal Brexit tomorrow when May's deal is voted down this evening.

Where we go from there who knows? Probably May would step down and force a leadership election. Possible GE and outside chance of Peoples vote. 

Interesting couple of days ahead …….  

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I think that's the end of May, if she loses tonight she should resign. Unfortunately a leadership competition will be between a hard brexiteer and a soft one. Grassroots will vote for the hard one. I'd say Johnson, JRM, Javid, Dave's or the other former brexiteer (can't remember name) are more likely to be PM than Corbyn

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My sense of what happens: 

Deal knocked back tonight. 

No, No deal passed tomorrow

Deal back on the table ERG and DUP vote for it as they claim it's the only thing they can do to guarantee Rule Britannia status. 

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3 minutes ago, jamieson87 said:

Can someone check the odds for May's survival.... Can't check gambling sites at work.

4/9 she gets replaced this year, 13/8 she survives beyond it with PP.

And this.

image.thumb.png.d17fbe6631fd18735e48cbfafac20eaa.png

Edited by welshbairn

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So the most likely outcome as we speak is 

No to May's deal

No to no deal

Yes to extension

What is likely to happen if the EU tell us to bolt for an extension? Are we fucked or is there some sort of mechanism available to prevent a no deal other than an election or 2nd referendum?

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1 minute ago, I'm Brian said:

So the most likely outcome as we speak is 

No to May's deal

No to no deal

Yes to extension

What is likely to happen if the EU tell us to bolt for an extension? Are we fucked or is there some sort of mechanism available to prevent a no deal other than an election or 2nd referendum?

Only options would be revoking Article 50 or a hard Brexit.

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2 minutes ago, I'm Brian said:

So the most likely outcome as we speak is 

No to May's deal

No to no deal

Yes to extension

What is likely to happen if the EU tell us to bolt for an extension? Are we fucked or is there some sort of mechanism available to prevent a no deal other than an election or 2nd referendum?

The EU doesn't want a no deal scenario anymore than every sensible person in the UK wants one.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

I think that's the end of May, if she loses tonight she should resign. Unfortunately a leadership competition will be between a hard brexiteer and a soft one. Grassroots will vote for the hard one. I'd say Johnson, JRM, Javid, Dave's or the other former brexiteer (can't remember name) are more likely to be PM than Corbyn

May has shown a remarkable ability to remain completely unashamed by the chaos the she and her government are causing, and I can see no scenario where she will jump.

She may be pushed...which is another thing.....but she knows that the Tory party and the DUP want to hold onto power with every shread of whatever fingernails they have left.

We're in unprecedented waters. The rules that applied to previous administrations and made them call GE's, no longer apply.

 

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