Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

[Guest]

At last, some sense is spoken by the former US Treasury Secretary, Larry Summers,

Even if the two countries could come to an agreement, Mr Summers said the UK is in a weak negotiating position.

"Britain has much less to give than Europe as a whole did, therefore less reason for the United States to make concessions.

"You make more concessions dealing with a wealthy man than you do dealing with a poor man."

"Britain has no leverage, Britain is desperate, Britain has nothing else, it needs an agreement very soon.

"When you have a desperate partner, that's when you strike the hardest bargain."

[harry94]

Very interesting legal take.

This guy, a lawyer with expertise in European law, is making the argument that in a 'no deal' scenario, we will remain in the EEA.

The government and EEA published a withdrawal agreement in December last year when parliament went to recess but they never managed to get it passed and it would seem that they still need to achieve this - maybe May was holding it back realising it was a tool to avoid no deal if they couldn't get the original withdrawal agreement passed.

It'd be interesting to see what would happen if there was legal ambiguity and we didn't know if we'd actually left or not.

[Granny Danger]

There is no mandate for a No Deal Brexit but there seems to be an assumption that such a mandate would weaken the EU’s resolve.  There is no evidence to support this.

If Johnson emerges as PM following an inevitable Autumn GE his position is not any stronger.  The EU will maintain their position.

Meanwhile here’s an interesting reality check from a former political editor of the Telegraph.

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/leaving-on-october-31-won-t-be-the-end-of-this-brexit-will-never-be-over-a4205606.html

[harry94]

18 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

There is no mandate for a No Deal Brexit but there seems to be an assumption that such a mandate would weaken the EU’s resolve.  There is no evidence to support this.

If Johnson emerges as PM following an inevitable Autumn GE his position is not any stronger.  The EU will maintain their position.

Meanwhile here’s an interesting reality check from a former political editor of the Telegraph.

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/leaving-on-october-31-won-t-be-the-end-of-this-brexit-will-never-be-over-a4205606.html

The thing is, if 'no deal' is somehow taken out of Boris' control and blocked, he could announce he's been forced into the situation and desperately wanted to enforce the 'will of dah peeepul' but wasn't allowed to and fight a general election on those terms.

If he's returned with a sizable majority, he can go the 'no deal' route and then just do whatever he pleases with no election until 2024 where he can maybe hope that some of the worst impacts have gone and he can shitfest home.

I don't really see many other routes through for him than right now being the precursor to a general election. The arithmetic won't let him do anything and then he's not been able to galvanise the Tory membership without appealing to the extremes and then possibly wouldn't have a chance with the Brexit Party in opposition (and Farage has taken out campaigning pretty much warning of sticking the knife in). It's a huge risk if the electorate don't play the way he expects them like May but I really think it's quite possibly his only route to stay in power long-term, first thing he needs is to convince the Brexit Party to cool off and not contest seats.

I don't really think anything we're seeing is anything other than optics to fight an election and find a way to circumvent finance laws by spending money in the name of the government.

[Ross.]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49251257

EU 'refusing to negotiate', says Gove

Who would have seen this coming? At least we know what angle the tories will be pushing for when it comes to geting their friends in the press to establish blame for the fall out. "It was all the EUs fault".

[Jacksgranda]

2 hours ago, harry94 said:

Very interesting legal take.

This guy, a lawyer with expertise in European law, is making the argument that in a 'no deal' scenario, we will remain in the EEA.

The government and EEA published a withdrawal agreement in December last year when parliament went to recess but they never managed to get it passed and it would seem that they still need to achieve this - maybe May was holding it back realising it was a tool to avoid no deal if they couldn't get the original withdrawal agreement passed.

It'd be interesting to see what would happen if there was legal ambiguity and we didn't know if we'd actually left or not.

The lawyers would have a field day and make an absolute fortune. Particularly if nobody knew whether the European Court of Justice had jurisdiction or not...

[Detournement]

6 hours ago, dirty dingus said:

Do we import a lot of sugar from the EU?

The idea that we should be worried about tariffs on tobacco which kills people or dairy products when we are net exporters of milk is a bit silly.

[harry94]

36 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

The lawyers would have a field day and make an absolute fortune. Particularly if nobody knew whether the European Court of Justice had jurisdiction or not...

It'd be interesting to see what would happen if no one could agree if we left or not.

[Bairnardo]

Those are export tariffs.

Was going to say but was unsire if that level of stupidity can only be a whoosh....

[Detournement]

5 minutes ago, MixuFixit said:

Those are export tariffs.

Bad news for UK sugar and tobacco production then!

[coprolite]

45 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Do we import a lot of sugar from the EU?

The idea that we should be worried about tariffs on tobacco which kills people or dairy products when we are net exporters of milk is a bit silly.

 

16 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Bad news for UK sugar and tobacco production then!

It is, yes. You do realise that the UK’s sugar production industry (using beets) is only economically viable because of the large tariffs on non EU producers that use more efficient cane. So they’ll be fucked but sugar will be cheaper so kids can eat more.

The UK still has a number of tobacco manufacturers. We might not grow tobacco but we still sell a lot cross border. It isn’t just primary producers that get taxed. The raw product was getting taxed at EU rates (I haven’t checked if leaf and fags are at the same rate) before so maybe the if Uk costs come down we can make up lost eu exports by exploiting developing markets; now that we’re more cost competitive we can leverage that marketing and disinformation know how.

Any tariff change has multiple winners and losers with complex and unexpected effects. In general any barrier is worse than no barrier (overall).  The issue is we are putting the barriers up on twice on many supply chains (car industry = fucked) and on the majority of our trading flows.

But never mind because tobacco is bad

[dirty dingus]

19 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Bad news for UK sugar and tobacco production then!

See that meat, dairy and vegetables bit.  

[zidane's child]

Farmers are as thick as s**t. F**k them!

[Detournement]

6 minutes ago, coprolite said:

 

It is, yes. You do realise that the UK’s sugar production industry (using beets) is only economically viable because of the large tariffs on non EU producers that use more efficient cane. So they’ll be fucked but sugar will be cheaper so kids can eat more.

The UK still has a number of tobacco manufacturers. We might not grow tobacco but we still sell a lot cross border. It isn’t just primary producers that get taxed. The raw product was getting taxed at EU rates (I haven’t checked if leaf and fags are at the same rate) before so maybe the if Uk costs come down we can make up lost eu exports by exploiting developing markets; now that we’re more cost competitive we can leverage that marketing and disinformation know how.

Any tariff change has multiple winners and losers with complex and unexpected effects. In general any barrier is worse than no barrier (overall).  The issue is we are putting the barriers up on twice on many supply chains (car industry = fucked) and on the majority of our trading flows.

But never mind because tobacco is bad

Aye cutting tobacco production and use is obviously a good thing. I say this as someone who has done a fair amount of smoking. I don't follow you on the beet production as the tweet suggests there will still be tariffs which the government can apply.

I don't agree with "In general any barrier is worse than no barrier". 'Free trade' policies have resulted in under development in the global south and non productive economies and politically neutered populations in the north.

 

[Colkitto]

Wonder if the farmers are regretting putting up all those "Vote No" boards in their fields in 2014? 

[John Lambies Doos]

Wonder if the farmers are regretting putting up all those "Vote No" boards in their fields in 2014? 

Probably just regretting being farmers tbh

[dirty dingus]

 

 

6 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

Wonder if the farmers are regretting putting up all those "Vote No" boards in their fields in 2014? 

They will just bleat to the government and as most are tory c***s they'll get massive handouts for doing f**k all. 

[BawWatchin]

33 minutes ago, Colkitto said:

Wonder if the farmers are regretting putting up all those "Vote No" boards in their fields in 2014? 

Don't be daft. The SNP and their nat followers are completely at blame here.

[strichener]

4 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

There is no mandate for a No Deal Brexit but there seems to be an assumption that such a mandate would weaken the EU’s resolve.  There is no evidence to support this.

If Johnson emerges as PM following an inevitable Autumn GE his position is not any stronger.  The EU will maintain their position.

Meanwhile here’s an interesting reality check from a former political editor of the Telegraph.

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/leaving-on-october-31-won-t-be-the-end-of-this-brexit-will-never-be-over-a4205606.html

Been on holiday?

[Detournement]

Centrist bawbags having a meltdown that the opposition aren't keen on stepping aside to let Grieve/Cooper/Benn/Lucas/Sturgeon/Swinson form a government.

Centrist bawbags are apparently willing to do anything to block No Deal Brexit other than vote JC4PM