Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

[Suspect Device]

 

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/how-bad-would-no-deal-brexit-be-uk-equity-investors-ii512479?utm_source=IBMW&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Afternoon_round_up_newsletter_240720&utm_content=&spMailingID=10049725&spUserID=MTM4NzM1NDAwMTAzS0&spJobID=1556269325&spReportId=MTU1NjI2OTMyNQS2

 

Some light reading

[Aubrey Maturin]

4 minutes ago, Suspect Device said:

 

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/how-bad-would-no-deal-brexit-be-uk-equity-investors-ii512479?utm_source=IBMW&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Afternoon_round_up_newsletter_240720&utm_content=&spMailingID=10049725&spUserID=MTM4NzM1NDAwMTAzS0&spJobID=1556269325&spReportId=MTU1NjI2OTMyNQS2

 

Some light reading

I still think the referendum question should have been.

Would you cut off a perfectly healthy limb for no reason?

That's the equivalent of what the morons did when they voted Brexit.  

However we are where we are but the desire to leave with a no deal is just mental.

[NotThePars]

2 hours ago, Tynierose said:

I still think the referendum question should have been.

Would you cut off a perfectly healthy limb for no reason?

That's the equivalent of what the morons did when they voted Brexit.  

However we are where we are but the desire to leave with a no deal is just mental.

I would've presented it like the Mr Burns mystery box but stressed that it was 96% likely to contain a bomb

[Baxter Parp]

[strichener]

On 25/07/2020 at 23:29, Baxter Parp said:

Can we just offset it against our Union dividend from 2014? 

What is the source for this data as I am confident that Brexit is not the reason for Aberdeen/Shire and Shetland GDP falling by > 17%.  Looking at the numbers it also appears that there is a discrepency - Aberdeen City would have a per head GDP of £52000 whilst Shire is < £30000.  Pinch of salt required.

[Terry_Tibbs]

On 22/07/2020 at 23:32, BigFatTabbyDave said:

Congrats to Terry upon his return, for setting a new record for the most number of fonts used in a single post a few pages back, and on knowing so much trivia about Helena Bonham Carter.

Gracious as ever Tabby.

[Terry_Tibbs]

On 22/07/2020 at 20:00, SandyCromarty said:

As I have said before Ireland gained their Independence when they had absolutely nothing and a zero economy, such was the peoples desire to rid themselves of a Westminster tyrrany they knew that the poor future they faced was preferable to what they had under english rule..

The vast majority of the Scottish people living in that most populous area the central bely are totally oblivious to the billions of Scottish Oil pounds the westminster gov has frittered on home counties projects, yet the main support for the SNP and Independence is in that area.

So you admit we'd be voting for poverty? All so we can be independent in name only.

It's not Scotland's oil it belongs to the UK. What makes you think that Shetland and Orkney wouldn't choose to remain in the Union or declare independence in the event of Scotland leaving the UK? In which case Scotland would lose out on any potential oil revenue. To reiterate, it's the UK's oil and always has been and there is only a chance it could become Scotland's in the future. Even so, the projected revenue would be substantially less than the Barnett Formula allocates us. Leading to a fiscal black hole that could only be filled by austerity on an unprecedented scale.

[welshbairn]

8 minutes ago, Terry_Tibbs said:

To reiterate, it's the UK's oil and always has been and there is only a chance it could become Scotland's in the future.

This is nonsense,  and Orkney and Shetland would get a vote like everyone else. Scotland voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU, didn't matter.

[Baxter Parp]

1 hour ago, strichener said:

Can we just offset it against our Union dividend from 2014? 

What is the source for this data as I am confident that Brexit is not the reason for Aberdeen/Shire and Shetland GDP falling by > 17%.  Looking at the numbers it also appears that there is a discrepency - Aberdeen City would have a per head GDP of £52000 whilst Shire is < £30000.  Pinch of salt required.

Blame Warwick Uni.

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/2356808/brexit-cost-for-worst-hit-aberdeen-already-adds-up-to-9000-for-every-resident-researchers-calculate/

Brexit cost for worst-hit Aberdeen already adds up to £9,000 for every resident, researchers calculate

[Baxter Parp]

26 minutes ago, Terry_Tibbs said:

It's not Scotland's oil it belongs to the UK. 

It belongs to whatever nation that has it within it's regional boundaries according to international law. You really are a happy little bundle of utter ignorance, aren't you?

Edited July 29, 2020 by Baxter Parp

[Terry_Tibbs]

18 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

This is nonsense,  and Orkney and Shetland would get a vote like everyone else. Scotland voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU, didn't matter.

You'd support their right to determination. So if they voted to remain in the UK you'd have no problem with them remaining.

Otherwise it would be logically inconsistent and hypocritical.

[Terry_Tibbs]

5 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said:

It belongs to whatever nation that has it within it's regional boundaries according to international law. You really are a happy little bundle of utter ignorance, aren't you?

Yes it belongs to the UK.  It's therefore not Scotland's oil.

[Baxter Parp]

Just now, Terry_Tibbs said:

Yes it belongs to the UK.  It's therefore not Scotland's oil.

Why is it included in GERS then?

[Baxter Parp]

ElPais is reporting that Gibraltar is seeking a customs union with the EU.

[Antlion]

1 hour ago, Terry_Tibbs said:

You'd support their right to determination. So if they voted to remain in the UK you'd have no problem with them remaining.

Otherwise it would be logically inconsistent and hypocritical.

And you’d fight tooth and nail against their leaving Scotland even it is to rejoin the UK (at some point later, when they’ve met the requirements, been accepted, etc). 

Otherwise it would be logically inconsistent and hypocritical, like much of what you post.

[strichener]

2 hours ago, Baxter Parp said:

Blame Warwick Uni.

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/2356808/brexit-cost-for-worst-hit-aberdeen-already-adds-up-to-9000-for-every-resident-researchers-calculate/

Brexit cost for worst-hit Aberdeen already adds up to £9,000 for every resident, researchers calculate

Forgive me if I ignore an economic analysis that doesn't know the difference between GVA and GDP.

[welshbairn]

2 hours ago, Terry_Tibbs said:

You'd support their right to determination. So if they voted to remain in the UK you'd have no problem with them remaining.

Otherwise it would be logically inconsistent and hypocritical.

Do you think Scotland should have the right to stay in the EU? Otherwise it would be logically inconsistent and hypocritical.

[git-intae-thum]

3 hours ago, Terry_Tibbs said:

Yes it belongs to the UK.  It's therefore not Scotland's oil.

This is point and laugh material.

The vast majority of current UK oil....and most gas reserves..... will be in Scottish continental shelf waters when Scotland secedes from the UK.

Even if we are to accept the ludicrous median line imposed on Scotland in 1999, this is still the bulk of resource.

Under all international precedent, this makes it Scotland's oil.

Further....it matters not a jot if Orkney and/or Shetland were by some devious scheme kept within the f(ormer)UK.

Under international law they would be classed as an offshore archipelago with no territorial claim out with the normal coastal zone. 12 nautical miles if memory serves correct.

But the whole Shetland/Orkney secessionist thing is just britnat fantasy anyway. There is absolutely no appetite for them to leave Scotland.

England faces greater demands for independence from Cornwall, Yorkshire and the North East.

[HTG]

3 hours ago, Baxter Parp said:

ElPais is reporting that Gibraltar is seeking a customs union with the EU.

That'll not be a problem for Westminster. No case whatsoever for Scotland though - get back in your box Scotland. Borders only matter where they concern England. Gibraltar and Northern Ireland - crack on. If Brexit is exposing anything, it's the confirmation that the only thing that matters is what happens on this island. And that then translates to "must align to how England votes". 

I'm a pretty reasonable person but even I'm reaching the view that a decent win in the Holyrood elections next year should see consideration given to UDI. It won't happen but a failure to recognise the demand that such a result will bring will be the end of any remaining patience for a lot of Scots  

[welshbairn]

3 hours ago, Baxter Parp said:

ElPais is reporting that Gibraltar is seeking a customs union with the EU.

https://english.elpais.com/brexit/2020-07-29/gibraltar-seeks-to-keep-eu-ties-after-brexit-transition-ends.html